Look at the two year chart comparing MDVN with IBB. MDVN went on a tear and is now simply even with IBB. Stocks that rise fast tend to sink fast as well. There has been nothing specific to MDVN causing this but the whole sector had been in a fall. I like to take advantage of these kind of markets and have been adding more MDVN in small bites since you never know where the bottom is.
I don't claim to know when or if a bottom is made but I have been adding small amounts on each dip. A look at the numbers will tell you most of what you need to know.
Trailing PE 25
Forward PE 19
And the big daddy PEG .30
I don't believe I have ever owned a stock with such a low PEG. If you spot one with a lower number let me know.
As I stated this tells you most of what you need.There are other factors that can and will affect the price, especially in the short term, but these are mostly unknowns at this point. Politics can drag the whole sector down, the economy, competition etc. but these are larger out of the control of the company and impossible to predict.
I am not sure why by I have heard others state these sources are not good at tracking prescription numbers. From my own experience they seem do do an adequate job with the smaller drugs but when you get into the 100 million + drugs these numbers are no where to be found. Take a look at the wide sales estimates for MDVN for instance. These estimates are done by those who have access to these numbers. I think the estimates would be a lot closer if they were relying on the same prescription data and that data was known to be accurate.
I have never heard of a company giving out weekly sales numbers. There are services you can subscribe to but as earlier posts mentioned these numbers are not accurate. As for MDVN, if you call Investors Relations you will get a recording and never get a call back.
shoenfeld When you find the person with a crystal ball that can answer that question let me know. I have a lot of other questions for them.
MDVN release shows US 313 million and ex US 205 for a total of 518.
MDVN gets half of the 313 = 156.5
MDVN gets approx 15% 0f 205 = 30.75
Total sales revenue to MDVN 187.25
(projected milestone payment) 70
Total revenue 257.25 with milestone payment included vs average estimate of 235.36
Assuming these numbers are accurate they should have qualified for the milestone payment of 70 million upon reaching 1.2 billion in yearly sales. Assuming they hit 1.6 billion later this year they are than eligible for 175 million milestone payment.
When I attempt to read the Astellas numbers I always get different figures than MDVN releases, especially on ex US sales so do your own diligence. MDVN officially releases their qrtly report next week.
Go to the world wide web site for the company and it is there under business results and it is in a much drier format much like our SEC reportings rather than a press release.
Its funny how this stock got spanked when Astellas released sales last week than gets hit again this week after MDVN made it official. Obviously a lot of people not paying attention. I bought a little more this AM and will buy more if it drops much further.
Astellas is on a different calendar year for some reason but they increased previous 2015 sales projection in US by 3% and ex US by 14%.
Couldn't resist a ten percent discount from yesterday considering revenue was already known a week ago and was already reflected in the price. I think in the next few trading days we will see a climb back up to yesterdays price unless the sector or market takes a fall.