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Medivation, Inc. Message Board

durangokidd2106 38 posts  |  Last Activity: 7 hours ago Member since: Nov 3, 2011
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  • Reply to

    A well written letter

    by credtrtrteingyt Apr 29, 2016 9:03 AM
    durangokidd2106 durangokidd2106 7 hours ago Flag

    Every small to medium size bio is a takeout possibility and rumors are common. It can boost the share price for a time but in the long run its still the companies progress that will either support that price or not. MDVN has done a great job in developing itself and has a very bright future. They certainly do lack in the area of self promotion and their investors relations is zero. I have attempted to call and email them a number of times and get no answer and no reply.

  • Reply to

    A well written letter

    by credtrtrteingyt Apr 29, 2016 9:03 AM
    durangokidd2106 durangokidd2106 Apr 30, 2016 1:06 PM Flag

    Stock is up 900% in the last five years. You don't think that's a good track record? A year or two ago I read an article that listed it in the top ten stocks for returns over a ten year period.

  • Reply to

    A well written letter

    by credtrtrteingyt Apr 29, 2016 9:03 AM
    durangokidd2106 durangokidd2106 Apr 30, 2016 1:03 PM Flag

    If your here only because of the buyout prospects you are an entirely different Investor than I. My first shares cost me about $4 considering the two splits they have had in 5 years. The average analyst target is $50 not $40, your not trying to mislead are you? If you had been in this stock for more than a couple of weeks you would know the analyst are always behind on that number and its meaningless.

    What happens if they play hardball and the buyers give up? Than we hold a company with predicted 30 % a year growth and several possibilities in the pipeline. Care to name another company with similiar PE and growth projections?

  • Reply to

    MDVN wants no less than $65 a share.

    by zachw.lamb Apr 29, 2016 2:42 PM
    durangokidd2106 durangokidd2106 Apr 29, 2016 6:08 PM Flag

    If there are two or even three or more bidders I would suspect it would go higher than that. Of course we keep hearing about other potential suitors but none have come forward yet. Interestingly there are a number of analyst that have run the numbers and come up with what various companies could value MDVN at.

  • Reply to

    Imagine this

    by durangokidd2106 Apr 29, 2016 1:18 PM
    durangokidd2106 durangokidd2106 Apr 29, 2016 2:55 PM Flag

    The institutions you speak of are not dummies, I suspect they want they same thing I do. Pay a reasonable price or we go happily on our way. Good sales growth and or continued trial success and this price will look cheap. If I thought there was better potential somewhere else I would sell now and move on. They are firing on all cylinders. Someone looking for a bargain here is a couple years to late. Just my thoughts as a holder going back to 2011, although I do enjoy the "johnny come lately" suggestions.

  • durangokidd2106 by durangokidd2106 Apr 29, 2016 1:18 PM Flag

    Imagine that a year ago my house was valued at $66,400. Than the local economy tanks driving my home value down to $26,400. Now a new large business announces the creation of numerous well paying jobs in the area and my house value snaps back to $58,000 and rising. Furthermore keep in mind I like my house and wish to live there and perhaps enjoy even more price appreciation. Now imagine a stranger knocks on the door and offers me $52,000 for my house. What do you suppose my reaction would be?

  • Reply to

    A well written letter

    by credtrtrteingyt Apr 29, 2016 9:03 AM
    durangokidd2106 durangokidd2106 Apr 29, 2016 12:48 PM Flag

    "Shareholders should be happy with a final deal at mid 50" You are aware that shareholders can sell right now at $58, why would they be happy at the mid 50's? And us long timers here turned down the opportunity to sell in the mid 60's a year ago.

  • durangokidd2106 durangokidd2106 Apr 29, 2016 9:23 AM Flag

    Sanofi's strategy of a low ball offer with claims of its premium over recent lows should not sit well with the average shareholder. To get my attention the initial offer should have come in a good $10-15 higher. When you start so low no one takes you seriously.

  • Reply to

    Credit Suisse values MDV @ $55

    by hitest_97 Apr 28, 2016 12:10 PM
    durangokidd2106 durangokidd2106 Apr 28, 2016 12:22 PM Flag

    I always get a kick out of these valuations. The average analyst one year target average is $49.68.

  • Reply to

    Insulting lowball offer

    by durangokidd2106 Apr 28, 2016 8:37 AM
    durangokidd2106 durangokidd2106 Apr 28, 2016 10:20 AM Flag

    They are likely basing assumptions on expanded usage and pipeline going forward. You're comparing apples and oranges.

  • Reply to

    Insulting lowball offer

    by durangokidd2106 Apr 28, 2016 8:37 AM
    durangokidd2106 durangokidd2106 Apr 28, 2016 9:04 AM Flag

    The two previous buyouts I have been on the fortunate end of were done much differently. There were discussions behind the scene and than an announced and agreed upon price was made public and ultimately approved. This offer makes no sense to me.

  • durangokidd2106 by durangokidd2106 Apr 28, 2016 8:46 AM Flag

    Although responding to a lowball offer with silence is my first reaction, let cooler heads prevail. I suggest 10 billion for Xtandi with MDVN keeping the rest of the pipeline.

  • durangokidd2106 by durangokidd2106 Apr 28, 2016 8:37 AM Flag

    Using the recent market lows as a base price for an offer is ridicules. Especially in light of the fact that MDVN is happy to go on its merry way by itself, this is not a desperate company looking to sell at fire sale prices. When you try to buy something that is not for sale you make an offer that is difficult to refuse. This is not even a good starting bid. Sanofi going public guessing the shareholders will find this offer "compelling" is equally outrageous. I guess any shareholders that would have been happy with a $52.5 offer can now sell on the open market for $56 according to the premarket bidding. Would love to see Astellas swoop in with a reasonable offer.

  • Reply to

    ** Is this a JOKE?**

    by bbx3ww Apr 28, 2016 7:22 AM
    durangokidd2106 durangokidd2106 Apr 28, 2016 8:14 AM Flag

    They apparently used the recent market crashes average price to state their case. This stock has been on sale and only recently reached its value. Any offer should have been a nice premium over today's price. That explains Hung's reaction to the offer and stockholders should feel the same.

  • Reply to

    Call options

    by colmike_98 Apr 26, 2016 6:19 PM
    durangokidd2106 durangokidd2106 Apr 26, 2016 8:30 PM Flag

    Either A. They will lose a bunch of money
    Or B. They make money when some great news appears in the next few days followed by an investigation as to how they knew this news was coming.

  • Reply to

    JPM Plan

    by stock_lurker Apr 15, 2016 1:53 PM
    durangokidd2106 durangokidd2106 Apr 23, 2016 2:41 PM Flag

    Looks like your on to something. I reread the releases and they only say unnamed sources were claiming JP was representing them. Never was confirmed or acknowledged by the company.

  • Reply to

    JPM Plan

    by stock_lurker Apr 15, 2016 1:53 PM
    durangokidd2106 durangokidd2106 Apr 22, 2016 8:33 PM Flag

    Yes I guess I was focused on the absurd suggested takeover price, I googled Rama and found he was also commenting on possible MDVN outcomes on April 6, a week after the release that JP was representing MDVN. Seems inappropriate to me but I am no expert in this area or how they draw the line.

  • durangokidd2106 durangokidd2106 Apr 22, 2016 5:44 PM Flag

    He is a lying, disgruntled DNDN investor, that got on the wrong train and still regrets missing this train.

  • Reply to

    JPM Plan

    by stock_lurker Apr 15, 2016 1:53 PM
    durangokidd2106 durangokidd2106 Apr 22, 2016 5:41 PM Flag

    A deal taken to Investors in the mid 50's to 60 would likely get done? Maybe if this were stuck in the low 40's that would work. The recent price of this stock was hugely discounted because of the overall market, the biotech market and lastly politicians. Its at a very reasonable price (low 50's) as a go it alone entity now. Offering 10% over the current price will not even warrant a return phone call. If someone wishes to buy it they will likely have to offer 25 to 30% above its current price to get anyone excited. If there is more than one buyer it will easily go 30 to 40% higher. As I have suggested earlier, if anyone were thrilled with getting $60+ a share they could have gotten that a year ago. This company's sales and pipeline is much stronger than it was while trading in the 60's. It will easily get back there on its own if and when the market normalises.

  • Reply to

    Earnings Date

    by investor4564 Apr 22, 2016 11:27 AM
    durangokidd2106 durangokidd2106 Apr 22, 2016 1:02 PM Flag

    Astellas fiscal year runs through March so they are normally a little later on their "fourth" quarter. Not sure if all Japanese stocks follow this calendar or not.

MDVN
57.80+1.63(+2.90%)Apr 29 4:00 PMEDT