The fallacy in your reasoning is to assume that parabolic growth in Rasuvo will continue. It won#$%$ easy to have parabolic growth when you are starting out, with volume low. Much harder to sustain the longer you go. Otrexup too had parabolic growth early on, and then slowed down the rate of growth. That's inevitable.
Those are net numbers over the period. So the peak holdings were larger between the placement and the reporting date, with the placement being flipped. The fact that the numbers are still up just means the flipping isn't over yet.
I still haven't re-entered. It's just showing to much weakness, which is very surprising to me given what appears to be a very good earnings report. Even if EPI is delayed, I would have thought the good earnings report alone would have held it above 2.
I saw a large ask at 1.95, so large that I was waiting for a further drop. In a flash it was gone and the price bumped up several cents. So, I missed it. I must say, with that actually really good earnings report, I thought it might be possible this stock could at least stay above 2. If they hadn't diluted the stock, it would surely be much higher. I'm watching and waiting for a good entry below 2.
... it went back under 2 today. As I noted before, DF didn't defend 2.00 before and that told me they wouldn't in the future. I would have bought some, but I noticed it too late at the end of the day. Earnings are Monday morning, and I normally don't buy stocks just before earnings, but I would have bought at little ATRS under 2 had I noticed. Nothing is certain, but I'd guess the stock would be up after earnings, if only because management may say something encouraging. Anyway, I hope it goes up for the longs here. If it plunges for some reason, then I'll be buying some.
The bottom line for me is that I no longer trust this management since the dilution and how DF started selling weeks in advance of it. If they are willing to dilute at 2.00, then they would certainly be willing to dilute at 2.5 -- think about it. And they've demonstrated that you can't trust their proclamations in their conference calls that they "see no reason to dilute". They've proven to be liars in that regard.
And, really, it doesn't matter if it was DF or some other seller selling below 2.00
The point is that, DF did nothing to defend 2.00
Which means they won't do anything to defend 2.00 in the future.
Which tells me to wait for sub-2.00 to buy in again. Or don't buy in again. Which would be find with me as well. My time has been much better spent on other stocks. SUPN has been great to me. There is a stock with real earnings in an uptrend.
Correction: SOMEONE is willing to sell below 2.00 -- how do I know: because it was recently below 2.00
How do YOU know it wasn't them? So long as their average sell price is above 2.00, they may not care if they have to sell some below 2.00
The seller "coming in" is DF. DF puts up bids to drive the price up on low volume. If a genuine buyer then appears on the bid, #$%$! DF sells into. And don't be fooled by a large bid volume, I've tried to sell into those before only to see them yanked away.
I expected DF would sell all the way down to 2.00, I must admit I was a little surprised DF let it slip below 2.00, but now that I know they're willing to sell below 2.00, I won't buy in again until/unless it's back below 2.00
Incidentally, with regards to volume, when you see a large volume bid, don't believe it. I've tried to sell into these before only to see them yanked away. I believe it's the market maker putting up artificial bids to see if someone will buy at ask, believing it's about to go up. I timed it right this morning in selling just when a bid was brought up at 2.13, and of course by keeping my trading volume low, which is a must. You can only make any decent percentage on this stock by trading a low number of shares. The market maker won't allow big sells by retail traders.
Is it really the scripts "sparking" a rally? Or just another pump job by DF? If there was real buying interest, the volume would be higher.
This small pop is on low volume, like all the recent small pops. That's why I believe it's a pump job by DF to try and generate some buying interest to sell into. Just my humble opinion.
I really hope for all long term holders that it does reward you all with 3+
If it does, don't worry, I won't be buying. Not unless/until management is totally changed out.