Who knows, maybe, forever is a long time to wait to see if that happens, but you said it was going under 2.00 by the end of January .... just 2 more days, I still say you are WRONG
An analyst downgrade is a signal for retail investors like us to BUY! The downgrade is made on behalf of the analyst's clients who are doing just that! After they get their fill of cheap shares, and the price stops dropping, that's when you'll see an upgrade. If an analyst were to come out and say "strong buy", you know you're near a top and it's time to sell.
If we are lucky, GTE will keep dropping with oil. Oil isn't quite yet done dropping, my estimate is that it will stop dropping within 3 months. I'm not making that number up, that's a pretty good estimate for when supply cuts already made will start reducing inventories, which is what counts. It will take a long time for inventories to start dropping but all they need to do is peak for oil to rebound rapidly. In the meantime, the safety net on GTE is it's 1.3 cash per share. It will NOT drop to that level or anything close to that level.
GTE is already under half book value and even with oil where it is now, GTE is still profitable. You'll know GTE is in for a strong re-bound if/when oil keeps dropping but GTE refuses to drop any further along with it. My estimate is that GTE will probably not drop below 2 but certainly not below 1.8, that is just too close to cash per share. And, if it does drop below 2, I will have doubled my long position in it. I don't plan on selling GTE until it is back above 4, for a huge profit for me, which should easily occur when oil is back above 70, which I believe will be within a year from now.
The reason oil can soar very rapidly is the same reason it has sunk so rapidly. Namely, the inelastic nature of supply and demand. Just a tiny imbalance in supply and demand for oil can make a huge difference in price, the reason being the finite storage space available.
"New Constructs finds only 19 of 190 energy stocks attractive: Its top pick is Canadian oil producer Gran Tierra Energy (GTE), which has a solid balance sheet and extremely discounted market price. But trade timing is particularly tricky at present. And it isn’t just energy stocks, says Trainer. New Constructs considers almost two-thirds of the 3,000 stocks it covers to be dangerous. "
Here is a link to the Barron's online story:
The problem with waiting until the stock "shows stability" is that it can, within a one trading day timeframe, or even an intraday timeframe, rise very rapidly.
The fundamental change, an unknown reduction in estimated reserves, does not change their large cash position of 1.3 per share. Nor does it have a major effect on the oil price at which GTE is profitable. It's a great buy here and now, and if pps drops further, even more so.
Well, I must agree with him because when I looked at various E&P companies to sink money into on this temporary downswing in oil prices, I chose GTE as the single stock in this sector I would invest in. Why? Because I couldn't find another company with such a large cash position as a fraction of it's market cap.
The key questions are 1) at what price and when will oil bottom? and 2) when will oil go back to at least $70? 3) will GTE stop falling even if oil keeps falling
With respect to 1) I believe we are within 3 months of oil bottoming and I believe it will bottom no lower than $35 -- that is just $10 from where it is now. With respect to 2), you can argue about that, but certainly by early next year as supply cuts being made starting now kick in, and with respect to 3) GTE will stop going down at some price above it's cash per share of 1.3 REGARDLESS of what oil prices do. I believe that price will not be below 1.8, maybe not below 2
"Energy tycoon Boone Pickens predicted on Friday that oil prices would be back near $70 or $80 a barrel by the fourth quarter of this year."
When oil is back above $70, GTE will be back above $4
It's a huge bargain already. When, not if, oil recovers to even just $70 per barrel, then GTE will be back above 4. That could be by the end of this year. If GTE falls further to under 2, I will double my position. There is no way to falls to 1.5, that would be too close to cash.
Well, that prediction was almost as stupid as your other two, namely that ATRS will be under 2 by the end of the month and 1.88 by Feb 11. Anyway, you're getting a jump start on being WRONG and destroying your own credibility. Wait, I guess you are good for one thing ... being a contrarian indicator.
So, now we have 2 stupid predictions from you. First, that ATRS will be below 2.00 by the end of January, and now second, that ATRS will be 1.88 by Feb 11. I predict that both of your predictions are WRONG, but I'll make a prediction of my own. I predict it is highly probable that you will delete your prediction posts prior to your deadlines for checking their accuracy.
Uh no, that's not what you told us. You told us it would have a bigger drop 2 days ago, when in fact it closed unchanged. It never had a bigger drop, and today it's back up. You have been consistently wrong, and now you are trying to change what you said.
Well, you "bet" was WAY OFF. It didn't "go down more today than it did yesterday", in fact it didn't go down at all. Since you were that wrong about this, why should anyone listen to any further predictions from you, other than to treat them as contrarian indicators?