Every major auto maker will be able produce evs for mass market with established efficient means of production with deep marketing mechanisms. The differentiation for Tesla is high cost of production with limited means of production and limited marketing ability. 15b is a joke.
Actually more than a dozen years - really something like 15 years the market has looked past earnings for AMZN, but we also know that EVERY company in the 100yr history of the stock market is ultimately priced by its abilty to generate margin and earnings. Look - the narrative on every stock changes - we know that - MSFT, AAPL WMT - no exceptions. The story on amzn is begining to look clouded. You know that one or two quarters of soft top line numbers will be harsh on pps. Delecerating growth for this stock will be its deathnail.
The narrative hasn't changed - slowing growth, lower margins. The price of rewarding mediocrity is only just begining with Amazon. Ultimately look at the balance sheet you see the cost building - less cash, more debt/accounts payable. Its time for some accountibilty - and i suspect tomorrow that may begin.
Steady, consistent decline in sales growth for 2013 and beyond. 1Q13 clocked in at 22% and with the expected 2Q of 14%-23% it doesn't look good. I expect last minute flurry of low price deals this quarter to make the numbers. Great for consumers. 3Q is looking like a tough Q with growth dropping to what could be 10% range or below industry. You knew it was going to happen eventually happen but the story is fully upon us now.
CEO will once again move the narrative because he know his declining sales will be hard to over-come, so expect the news about a phone or gross margin talk to dominate. Cash flow is not something he is going to want to hightight.
I do expect them to cut expenses drastically in the 3rd and 4th Q to run NOI as high as possible. It will probably be enought to keep the hope alive but maybe but at some point the piper has to be paid.
the only thing amazon disrupts is its ability to generate cash or earnings. Oh wait, they disrupt the cash that is due to supplies and 3rd parties for at least 90 days.
very on the mark post - however I really think Bernanke is not protecting the banking cartel as much as he actually thinks the wealth effect of higher prices will lift us out of the mud and mire and put us on a firm stand. he really believes this in his heart of hearts. i'm a little surprised he doesn't get that there is no free lunch and the cost is lower currency value, higher costs and the most damaging - continuation of increasing debt load.
Leads to misallocation of assets and resources. AMZN is poster child for this phenomenon. Wasted investment in digital content, devices and other services. The so called investment phase that started years ago hasn't and won't pay dividends - gross margin games are keeping the dream alive but like in all cases the wheel of reality grinds slow but will grind fine one day. when profits never show up and growth slows to a crawl (see 1Q13 projections for proof) the value of the company must be alligned to reality. growth has declined some 60% and although 18% yoy is great for most retail - the writing on the wall is ever more ominous given the context of the 122B market cap. they really don't have an answer to this problem and with more and more facilities and employess and new investment strategies, the wall gets higher and higher. there is not an easy exit strategy here and they don't even consider some viable options b/c of flawed ethos of growth beyond everything else. what's really amazing is we have so much good data on this company and its markets yet the no see/hear/speak monkey is in full display.
What's EV maker with maybe 30K units possible in 2014 run as a break-even operation (at least they hope)? Only "scale" they will see if someone decides to overpay for the shares in the next couple of years.
Mail order company generating a 90 day cash float - spending a buck to take a buck - oh yeah - next year it will all change... just like every year. They may have a flash of moderate to sub-par performance, but not sustainable. 19 years of data lays out the story. This is not a cash generating machine - this is a cash depleting machine. Billions lent from suppliers, stockholders and now bond holders but no clue as to how to get ahead other than to keep growing until some un-known profitable business model drops from the sky.
easy predcition - they will run out of cash in 2Q and they only collateral they have is the equity in the company
actually they may survive long if the volumes are down!
and worry about the range of the cash the company has sitting in there bank account. they don't have enough cash to keep the expansion going and will need to take additional investment to keep the operation running and that means dilution. the current stockholders own much less than what they think they own today.
He said today that Apple made more in one quarter than AMZN has made in its exsistence. He was way to gracious - Actually, Apple made more in 15 days that AMZN has made in exsistence. Apple nets around $145M per day.
the narrative of slowing growth will dominate share price in 2013 - this past quarter tells you everything - ceo points to improving margins but smart money sells the stock. If 1Q13 is around 14-15% yoy, you will see an earnest exodus in the stock - its what caught every high fligher and will catch this one. easier number on 2Q but not a push-over.
my guess is they will try to buy growth again in any way possible.
dramatically slowing growth will not treat stock price kindly. 1Q13 will come in at lower end of range in the 15% yoy range and the year will be set at that rate or slightly lower - equal to over-all market. I think the high for 2013 was reached AH last night - already down 6% off that high. smart money will start exiting this stock as search for higher growth. Its all in the cash - just look at the cash sitting on the balance sheet - lowest point reletive to sales in years. I wouldn't be surprised if they need to go back to credit markets by 3rd quarter.