I did the same today and sold 1/2 my shares at 15.36 ..... keeping the other 1/2 to see what oil does and/or how the WLL combo works. KOG is a great company, but they are still carrying a load of debt which WLL assumes. Regardless, with oil prices down and wall street looking negatively at oil companies that carry a heavy debt load.
What's the price of oil going to do from here? Any input will be interesting to hear. Regards,
harry -- if you hear anything new, please post it as I'm interested in what gets drilled on the NA block. Regards.
I'd love to see the Fisal prospect drilled. If drilled and the same reservoir as Zarat proves to extend up to fisal, that would get some attention to drill Hadaf IMHO. But this all depends on the risk associated with the political climate, which I do not know well enough except from the national news. I could dig into the field areas along trend to see how and what other operators are doing, and how the political risks are for the offshore region. That would be interesting in itself. Regards.
I agree with you benmare75. Just hope somehow a small company takes on the NA project. That's a long shot, but with at least proved and productive reserves at Zarat, it may get the interest of a small company to drill the outpost WC prospects on the NA block. Regards.
I agree with Benmare75 --- Once the money runs out, this company will be gone. I honestly do not know what the CEO does to justify earning his $600k salary per year. That is a joke. I'm sure he does some daily activity, but he doesnt justify $600k per year. He could try and get a JV partner for the NA prospects and Zarat development at one of the Houston Expo shows. If there was not turmoil in NA I think the Zarat proved condensate and gas would be developed with no real issues.
The Propsects that remain to be drilled on the offshore block look very interesting as per the seismic data. The size of the prize is what is holding this NA deal up. It is not huge, but it is a money maker. The risk with operating in NA comes in to play here. Maybe a smaller aggressive independent will see the merits of the NA deal and take a shot at it. If the 2-3 remaining prospective drill wells are drilled and come in, this could be a nice project for someone if the political risk issue doesnt sink the NA project. The offsetting fields along trend with the prospective drill wells give an idea of what type of field size may be found from the prospects. They are not huge, but they are productive and they are economic.
This is a big risk, but lets hope that the NA project gets drilled by a small operator and we see some good results. It does look interesting geologically, but not politically regarding risk. There is really nothing to lose if you still hold at this point since it has already dropped to a penny stock. The only positive is how well Marquee is doing since we got shares of their stock. They must be a legit hard working company, not like SOQ.
lex - That 30cent/share premium for KOG vs WLL is what I was pointing out before some folks got all foamed about arbitrage on the board here. Regards
I agree my question could have been better worded, period.
1775Navy -- I would not sell either if there is a tax issue. My question was related to a IRA tax sheltered account where the tax issue doesn't apply. Good luck to you, and Go Navy.
You could sell KOG today and buy more shares of WLL than the 0.177 factor. Learn some math before you start claiming to be the arbitrage expert on this board. I was simply asking a question. Bottom line is that if you sold KOG today you could buy more shares of WLL than the 0.177 factor. Do the math or look at my post above.
I know it was/is 0.177 shares of WLL for each share of KOG. If the merger was completed today with KOG at $15.46 and WLL is at $85.68, KOG's share price is worth more than WLL share price (85.68 x 0.177 = $15.16, thus at the same time today KOG is worth $15.46 which is $0.30/share higher than 0.177 shares of WLL.
You could sell KOG today and buy more shares of WLL than you could if you waited for the merger to happen.
Selling KOG in a IRA at $15 plus makes more sense than keeping it and getting only $13.90 later when the merger takes place in the 4 th quarter? Why accept a lower price later vs a higher price now. That makes no sense to me if selling in a tax sheltered IRA.
Tom I have very few shares of SOQ remaining, but I'm very interested as a geologist regarding the Fisal exploration/outpost well. If you remember the structure map from SOQ, the Fisal well appears to be a continuation of the Zarat reservoir, and Fisal is located on a structural closure as per seismic data. It just looks interesting. I hope that the well gets drilled and that SOQ is still in the picture. Regards
Good deal on your trade. You said you were all out at 14.10. So when did you get back in at 14.02? And how are you putting where you get out and get back in .... just curious.
Since KOG made a very strong move up the past few days, do you think it would be a good tiime to get out as you have in the past. If you got in as you mentioned again at 14.02, it would have been a good move to get out at 14.40 today? (did you get out today with your 14.02 shares at 14.40?). Regards.
I agree with you, but he sure had a strong platform via SA. And it makes someone think when he puts that much effort into looking at the low side case ---- it is the low side case, but doesnt represent the upside high economic case. How does SA let the article through like that?
g8t -- Just posted some additional comments on the SA article. The SA author is not in the industry, and a recent article in the AAPG Explorer had some great perspective for folks that are not in the industry relative to folks who are in the 'new shale boom' industry. The SA article would have been appropriate if written 5 to 10 years ago, but not in 2014. Regards.
Saw your comments following the SA article. I followed your comments with some of my own. I can agree with the writers assumptions and economics, BUT only as a low case scenario. He needs to look at the most likely case, and the high side case, and aggregate the 3 cases to come up with a more reasonable economic assessment. Regards, drp
Hope the run works for you. Your approach of not putting everything on the line is pragmatic. Will see how it plays out. Regards.