Well, SOQ is finally dead. I sure liked looking at the awesome geology and 4 wells that were drilled at TnT. They had 4 TCF in their hands and screwed up that deal big time. That is so sad. Regards.
I have positioned myself where I have dividend paying major oil stocks, but also have 1/2 my cash in 2% SVF ready to buy if major oil companies drop in price resulting in the dividends going up. A major like Exxon etc can and will pay their dividends, and unlike the 2008-09 recession Exxon's dividend now is $2.76, or about 3% vs the miserable 1.7% dividend it paid during the recession. I have not seen an article related to how the dividend today is holding up the price per share now much better than it did during the recession.
Do other people see this difference between the 3% dividend now vs the 1.7% dividend during the recession as a reason to hold Exxon? Regards.
I agree, crude will drop again then it will go back up after it drops, and Exxon will follow that drop and also that increase in price of crude. I think Exxon will drop into the high $80's again after the dividend pays Friday and after crude oil drops off after today. both crude and exxon will go up after the drop, so hang on if in a taxable situation, but if you can, buy in at a lower price if in a 401K etc.
Just show that Exxon is well positioned to keep FCF coming in, do not mention stock buy back, or just say it will be determined if it may be better to buy back Exxon if it goes lower instead of buying it at current prices. Cut back capex as we did in 1986-87, and keep the dividend up and pay more dividend as we did in 2008-2009 regardless of the price of crude. Exxon needs to be a leader .... cutting capex just or the time period that crude is low will not upset the long range plans or projects. Exxon already mentioned that they have had major capex program over the past 5 years and they said capex would be cut before the low price event happened.
I hope this is their way of easing away from their stick to the low price plan deal. This is going to cause a whipaw reaction in oil prices sooner or later. It will also disrupt future oil needs since so many companies are being disrupted. If we are actually only about 2% over supplied with world crude. How low do you think Exxon will go. I am hanging in so I can collect the dividend over time, but I also have 45% of my assets in cash so I can buy back in when the share prices have dropped much lower. I hope they do not go much lower, but the dividend should stay the same, and/or it should go up just as it did during the recession and also during the 2008 drop in crude prices to the 30's. Its to late for me to bail now, so I am staying and waiting for Exxon to drop lower. Exxon should be the best situated major to ride out the low price OPEC reel them in deal to gain market share. This could backfire and put us into a recession worldwide. Any gain in spending due to low oil prices will be offset due to losses from the massive oil industry. We need stable crude prices in order to secure crude oil in the future. If not, get ready for the whipsaw price ordeal. This is the 1st time I have not sold off and waiting out the low price deal .... I have always sold and re-deployed the assets later with no losses, but not this time -- I have lost a lot so far. Any input to easy my pain would be appreciated. I still cannot believe that this was not sensed coming down the line ... the massive cut in crude oil prices. There is only about a 2-4% surplus which will take 6-12 months to turn around, but then are we set up to meet world demand when we wipe out the higher priced new oil that is needed to meet world demand .... we need both new oil and old lower priced oil BOTH to meet world demand. Just old low price conventional oil will not meet world demand even if world demand drops to 90mbopd. I guess we have about 6-12mbopd of new high priced non-conventional oil that is needed.
I hope you are right, $65 by summer. But why would Saudi not stick to their guns and let the price keep dropping. They have enough saved to get by for years while larger projects from many companies are cut. I hope that Saudi is prepared for what happens if oil whipsaws back up to the point where it sends the world into recession. Or some of these other OPEC countries that do not have assets set aside to ride this out become more radicalized and cause the Middle East to become more unstable. Saudi has their huge wall being built on the West to keep armies etc out of Saudi, but what if they get attacked in another way. Anything can happen, look at 9/11. Again, I hope you are right about the $65 by summer, and it is a small glut, but that glut is growing due to everyone pumping as much as they can from existing wells. Regards.
The problem is the major do not have to service the type debt that the shale producers have to. It will come down to who can pay the banks what they have borrowed to do business. Regardless, you make an interesting point. I know I sure got blasted by this incredible drop in crude prices. Regards.
2/7 is Sat ..... that doesnt make sense. Also, would anyone sell Exxon here at $92 +, and does anyone think it will hold? Regards
SE is a good pipeline company with a great dividend, so if not trading it is a good long term hold.