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Whiting USA Trust I Message Board

dvoowner 32 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 17, 2014 3:09 PM Member since: Jun 23, 1998
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  • Reply to

    SE dividend----GOING UP

    by beachplayboy200245224 Dec 11, 2014 8:38 PM
    dvoowner dvoowner Dec 17, 2014 3:09 PM Flag

    well, it looks like we got lucky with the $55.55 --- it seemed to pivot down and around the 55.50 level. Again, i picked the $55.55 level due to the amount of time that crude was in a free-fall. As with 2008, 6 months is a long time for oil to free-fall. If it had slowed down, or leveled off, that would be different, but 6 months of just dropping takes it toll, and then fundamentals kick in after it has gone past a safe level. There will still be production added to the world market until about 1-2 quarter 2015, then it will slow down some. By 12-18 months crude prices will be back up again to $80-$100/bbl. Regardless SE is a great deal since they will be paid the same regardless of crude prices. I was lucky to pick up some shares at 33.74. I got my original shares in the Oct drop at 36.18, so not even yet.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Just curious to see what WLL owners think. I assume WLL is to small for a major?, like Exxon, but who else?

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    RIP SOQ

    by blancodeeoblow Dec 12, 2014 2:01 PM
    dvoowner dvoowner Dec 16, 2014 12:46 PM Flag

    10-4 blanco. Rough ride for sure. I was looking at some field data on the net yesterday and I came across some BG data on the 3 discovery wells that SNG drilled at TnT. After they drilled the wells, I had calculated the reserves from maps that SNG supplied online. The reserves were around 3-4TCF for the 3 wells and any development wells. That is about the same number that BG has for the 3 wells as they are ready to put them into full production. BG was the JV farm-in partner with stiff lease terms, but BG drilled the down-dip well which had proved gas sands and a water contact in it, so well SNG drilled was a low risk updip well. To think that SNG had 70% of that deal, but #$%$ it away with the shell company that Noval created. 3-4 TCF is a lot of gas, plus the condensate that comes along with the natural gas, lperiod. That could have been and should have been the share holders payback for investing in SNG/SOQ. Mercy, that is really a bad deal for us. Regards to you all, this entire deal makes me sick as it does you.

  • Reply to

    Earnings will fall

    by newman1979 Dec 15, 2014 11:44 AM
    dvoowner dvoowner Dec 15, 2014 3:18 PM Flag

    Just buy Exxon and let it pay you the 3.2% dividend .... do not sell it, just collect the dividend. Exxon has always been able to pay their dividend because they have been so very conservative and manage their cash flow well.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    buy in

    by yp_andy_westfield_848 Dec 15, 2014 12:28 PM
    dvoowner dvoowner Dec 15, 2014 3:03 PM Flag

    I agree with Rick Santelli -- WTI will level off at $55.55. This is where it leveled off during 2008 after a 6 month drop. Its the time period that it drops according to Rick. Its been 6 months now since WTI started dropping. Regards

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    back to december 2013 #s

    by demsaretheenemy Dec 12, 2014 10:05 AM
    dvoowner dvoowner Dec 15, 2014 2:22 PM Flag

    I the producer cannot pay the freight, some other producer will come along and pay the freight. With lower fuel prices people will use the same or more hydrocarbons, so the use will not go away. A bigger better situated company with good cash flow will come along and buy the heavy debt producer that goes out of business. That's merger and acquisition due to price changes.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    SE dividend----GOING UP

    by beachplayboy200245224 Dec 11, 2014 8:38 PM
    dvoowner dvoowner Dec 12, 2014 1:08 PM Flag

    The dividend should go up since SE is not a producer, or explorer, just a pipeline company that transports hydrocarbons. Correct me if I am wrong on this, but hasn't SE simply gotten pulled down due to being associated with the OIL/gas business?

    If that's the case, SE should be a great dividend play at these prices. I see crude settling around 55.55, since that is the time frame where the last 2008 crude drop ended --- approx 5 months. Will see, GLTA.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Buyers pouring into Whitman

    by sync2112 Dec 11, 2014 12:49 PM
    dvoowner dvoowner Dec 11, 2014 5:24 PM Flag

    i wish/hope you are/were right about going back up quickly, but i do not anticipate that. Only world demand will cause prices to increase, and with the massive debt and destruction to various countries economies, where is the world demand going to come from???

  • In 1997 crude was $26 per bbl, and as it dropped to $11 per bbl by 1999. As a result Exxon wanted and did merge with Mobil in order to deal with the drop in crude prices. The larger company was better equipped to be more efficient, thus deal with the drop in crude prices. Today, 2014, crude oil drops from $110 per bbl to $60 per bbl. To deal with the drop in crude oil, this would again be an excellent time for ExxonMobil to merge with another energy company in order to become more efficient and deal with the drop in crude oil.

    The shale oil fields here in the U.S. where numerous smaller operators are heavily in debt need to merge with Exxon where the crude can be produced more efficiently. This would help with national security since Saudi/OPEC controls the price of world crude prices. It is best to have a stable price for crude to insure long range projects in order to have enough energy in the future. Low crude prices invite waste and do not promote conservation of crude oil which ultimately will result in very high crude prices once world demand out paces world production in the future.

    A stable price for crude is best versus radical movements up and down. I see this as a great time for Exxon to merge and/or acquire U.S. shale oil companies that are heavily in debt and subject to bankruptcy due to wild swings in crude prices. If crude prices stay low for to long, world demand will catch up with and pass world production and crude prices will go up ward and out of control as they did in 2008. Its much better to have stable crude prices so that the long range planning needed to harvest crude and natural gas occurs in a rational and efficient manner.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    XOM will drop below $70.00

    by dhcabinetry Dec 10, 2014 12:19 PM
    dvoowner dvoowner Dec 11, 2014 10:58 AM Flag

    if Exxon goes to $58, that dividend will look pretty good. 4.8%.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • dvoowner dvoowner Dec 10, 2014 4:43 PM Flag

    I meant that due to low prices now, crude prices will go sky high in the future, and those future high crude prices will drive folks to develop other forms of energy. Sorry, i got ahead of myself. Once the old conventional cheap crude is soaked up off the world market, crude prices will increase fast due to a lack of production from unconventionals that are getting hammered out of business now due to the low crude prices. Our world needs moderately high prices to encourage conservation and innovation regarding energy.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • dvoowner dvoowner Dec 8, 2014 4:32 PM Flag

    The world demand has not been growing at the 1-1.5%/year over the past few years due to a soft world economy, thus the normal 1 - 1.5% growth in production PLUS the added unconventional 4 million bopd brought on by tight oil shales has resulted in a glut of oil. This glut will go away due to the low price of crude now that will cause many oil/gas companies to cut their capex spending. The capex spending cuts will cause a reduction in planned production for 2015, and on out in time.

    OPEC is not going to help their own cause here due to allowing crude prices to fall. This will only re-energize other forms of energy use faster, and it will also drive countries to use natural gas for transportation. They are shooting themselves in the foot --- OPEC is. The major oil companies have a very good handle on long range crude oil needs and there will be a number of mergers and acquistions. Buying companies is the best way to increase reserves for the large oil companies. Regards.

  • dvoowner dvoowner Dec 7, 2014 4:22 PM Flag

    As I posted earlier, world crude demand is not going up even 1-2 million bopd. They are calling for about 400kbopd increase for 2015. There is about 1-2 million bopd excess production right now. I assume approx 500k - 1,000 kbopd is being cut now just due to capex changes in the industry. That leaves about 1 million extra bbl/day on the market at the present. With heavier capex decreases that 1 million bopd excess crude production will be dried up pretty soon.

    I'd love to be in some of the board meeting where larger companies are looking at potential M&A's due to debt ridden producers like KOG (now WLL). I have no idea how the new WLL would fit, if at all, in those discussions regarding M&A's??? If anyone does know, please enlighten us. Regards.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • dvoowner dvoowner Dec 7, 2014 11:28 AM Flag

    Whats your information source for the increase in demand of 2-3 million bopd? EIA and other sources are not calling for 2-3 million increases in 2015. We know there will be CAPEX cuts to a number of companies in 2015 due to the crude price decreases. I wish there would be an increase on world demand by 2-3 million for 2015, but that is not going to happen. Regards.

  • dvoowner dvoowner Dec 6, 2014 5:00 PM Flag

    greatday -- I love your optimism! What is the bass for your assessment? I sure hope you are right and should someone who rode WLL all the way to the low price Friday try to buy in now or wait? GLTY.

  • Reply to

    I'LL BUY WHEN THE PRICE GOES TO $25

    by gpawx3 Dec 5, 2014 1:04 PM
    dvoowner dvoowner Dec 6, 2014 12:37 PM Flag

    What if WLL levels out here and you do not get a chance to get in a $25? World demand may be soft, but world production will drop 2-3 million bbls/day in a short time period. Less than 6-12 months just due to some simple CAPEX drilling reductions back to 2013 levels. Regards.i

    Sentiment: Buy

  • I posted this on KOG site, but would like some input from WLL share holders. How many other investors feel that KOG is not completely dead. It seems to me that with consolidation and limited drilling in the best areas that KOG/WLL can and will be profitable. The debt will have to be restructured, but the oil is still in the ground and it all doesnt cost $70/bbl to produce. Some of the best Bakken producers can make a profit with $60/bbl.

    If drilling and production is reduced to Dec 2013 levels that would result in a reduction of 1,100kbo/day -- 1.1 million bo/day (300kbo/day Bakken & 400kbo/day Eagle Ford, and 400kbo/day Permian, EIA data). There will be cut in world production of 1.1 million bbls per day just if we return to Dec 2013 production and drilling rates in just 3 field areas in the US alone. There has to be other cut backs around the world. This is why i see production dropping at least 2-3 million bbl/day worldwide when you consider there will be less drilling due to drilling budgets being cut back to 2013 levels.

    Does anyone else feel like this may be the case. I'm starting to feel like I'm the only other person besides 'thebegining6?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Grow a set and buy.

    by thebegining6 Dec 5, 2014 11:51 AM
    dvoowner dvoowner Dec 5, 2014 3:00 PM Flag

    Hope we are not wrong, but I agree with you. You make money when others will not try to.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • How many other investors feel that KOG is not completely dead. It seems to me that with consolidation and limited drilling in the best areas that KOG/WLL can and will be profitable. The debt will have to be restructured, but the oil is still in the ground and it all doesnt cost $70/bbl to produce. Some of the best Bakken producers can make a profit with $60/bbl.

    If drilling and production is reduced to Dec 2013 levels that would result in a reduction of 1,100kbo/day -- 1.1 million bo/day (300kbo/day Bakken & 400kbo/day Eagle Ford, and 400kbo/day Permian, EIA data). There will be cut in world production of 1.1 million bbls per day just if we return to Dec 2013 production and drilling rates in just 3 field areas in the US alone. There has to be other cut backs around the world. This is why i see production dropping at least 2-3 million bbl/day worldwide when you consider there will be less drilling due to drilling budgets being cut back to 2013 levels.

    Does anyone else feel like this may be the case. I'm starting to feel like I'm the only other person besides 'thebegining6.'

    Sentiment: Buy

  • dvoowner dvoowner Dec 4, 2014 2:32 PM Flag

    YE 2013 WLL had 438 Million boes reserves and KOG had 167 million boes reserves. So combined the new company will have 606 million boes. Thats more than half a billion bbls. That's a big reserve addition for a major company to acquire. Humm, Exxon bought XTO's tight gas/oil expertise previously when gas prices were still very high. Maybe they can deploy some money and acquire 600 million boes at low oil prices. Keep the current WLL/KOG operators and produce the tight oil at a lower production price. Just have to be patient. Don't you think other major companies are looking at the possibility of acquiring 600 million boes of reserves. Its always cheaper to buy proved reserves than to explore for them. Regards. Patience, Patience!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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