1. They missed by a mile. It wasn't just statistical variation. They hit the trifecta: less patients, less use per patient and less ordering from distribution channel. Remember they have almost two years of patient experience to study. A blip in patient use might be a few % miss on revs, instead they whiffed by 30-40%. There is a finite number of patients in U.S. and that market is being targeted by 4 other competitors. They have hit patient conversion saturation.
2. Yes, everyone who knows the story is focusing on LLY and DX-2930. The difference now is that Kalbitor was the foundation that they would build on while they waited for LFRP monetization-which by the way will take years to yield revenues-now that foundation is crumbling.
3. This has gone from a modestly growing story powered by Kalbitor sales to a binary risk on results from LLY. A greatly changed risk profile.
4. Shareholder value is not a priority for these guys. Read the proxy, no where is it even mentioned as a contributing factor to executive compensation. They have been enriching themselves for years, well ahead of much larger and successful companies.
5. They need to admit that they have taken this as far as they can and put the company up for sale. There is no shame in selling-it happens constantly in biotech.
I've been with this name for years. Dillutive offerings, failed product strategies, butchered Kalibitor commercial launch and now these horrific results. Shame on me for expecting different. Meanwhile they continue to pay themselves astronomical pay packages for what they deliver. They should sell the company and let a larger, more qualified entity run the program. But why sell, this is their own personal annuity/piggy bank. Awful.