It would be nice to see combined revenues of $8.1 million for Pinpoint and luna for the 1st quarter. That would represent a 40% increase in revenues over the 4th quarter for these products. That would certainly indicate, at least to me, improving salesmen productivity in the most important arena for this company.
just back from overseas.
Listened to the recent presentation and would agree that when Arun was speaking of
50%,25% and 25%, he was discussing the state of affairs of the old lifecell customers.
Over the too many decades i have been investing in the medical industry, I have seen so many
companies in the current situation of Novadaq. They all reached a bridge they had to cross; namely, crossing over from a medical device developer to a medical device marketeer. It is oftentimes a difficult passage, particularly for the CEO, who's background is science and not business development.
I love this company's products from every perspective. Given the current size of the sales force, I am somewhat disappointed in revenue growth.
One last point for now. I have never owned another company like this where the institutional ownership has grown to such a level, while at the same time, so has the short interest. Both at record levels for the company.
Most Institutions have now reported their exposure as of 12/31/14. The Institutions now own 87% of the stock as of that date. I have to admit, I expected institutional ownership to decline.
I do not believe the sudden ups and downs of the stock price is due to either shorting or short covering. As Institutions continue to report their 12/31/14 exposure to this company, I believe the rapid shifts in the stock price at the end of last year was primarily due to Institutional activity. For example, one of the 5 largest institutional holders sold out their entire position of 1.7 million shares in the 4th quarter. In total, there were slightly over 3 million shares involved in Institutions selling out their entire positions. Did these Institutions sell at a steady pace throughout the quarter or did circumstances require them to sell rapidly? Your guess is as good as mine. Fortunately, there were also 3 million shares bought by new institutional investors. At this point institutional exposure seems to be holding in the 83% of outstanding shares range. Fidelity has not as yet reported.
One other point. is it acceptable that a sales force of 80 experienced salesmen will do only $65 million in 2015. I hope the $65 million is a low ball target because if you assume an equipment cost of $150 thousand that's only 5 sales per year per salesman. Imho, that's soft.
I cannot help but wonder if there is a connection between the CFO suddenly resigning, the company badly missing 4th quarter revenue projections in spite of Arun projecting they would as late as mid November, and now still not announcing when 4th quarter results will be released. Just a thought.
During the month of December, short interest increased by over 800,000 shares and ended the month at 4.1 million. Trying to digest the revenue miss, especially given Arun's comments as late as mid November.
There are 3 possible reasons for the current weakness:
1) Word is getting around that 4th quarter revenues did not meet expectations.
2) One or more institutional holders are selling.
3) A bad reaction by institutions to the sudden leaving of the CFO.
Unless, they preannounce revenues, I guess we'll have to wait
until Arun's presentation on 1/13 to get a better fix. Have to admit this weakness
Yesterday, the company announced that Arun will be presenting at the JPMorgan healthcare conference on 1/13/15 at 8:30am.
On 1/14/14, the day of the 2014 JPMorgan healthcare conference, Novadaq preannounced 4th quarter and full year revenues. The preannouncement allowed Arun to discuss those revenues when he made his presentation that morning.
During the 4th quarter of this year, Arun, on more then one occasion, and as late as late November, indicated that the company would meet it's overall 2014 revenue growth rate forecast of 40%. That would require 2014 revenues of at least $49 million. Given the fact that aggregate revenue for the first three quarters of 2014 was $33.6 million, the company will have to do revenues of $15.4 million in the 4th quarter. That would represent a 50% year over year increase in the 4th quarter and a 27% increase quarter to quarter. I believe everyone here would agree that those would be great numbers. So, let's hope for a preannouncement.
Short interest increased 428,000 shares to 3.659,000 shares for the period ending 12/15.
Bear in mind that the LifeNet health distributor agreement press release happened on 12/10.
The stock rallied dramatically on that news and continued up for the next two days. On 12/15, the stock declined substantially. Imho, that was the day this substantial increase in short interest happened.
Thanks for connecting the dots. Thanks also to Flamfurter for his comments. So, Arun waited until his team officially took over the marketing of Spy-Elite to pull this rabbit out of the hat. This new agreement had to have been in some form of development even prior to the settlement being reached with Lifecell. Remarkable!!
I love the conclusions you reach about marketing presence and price targets, but have to admit that I am having a problem connecting the dots of your posting. Any chance, when you have a free moment or two, to give it to me in a more expanded fashion.
Very nice day indeed. I wonder if this strong showing is the result of the LifeNet deal or is the result of the new patent announcement? The company must have felt very strongly about the importance of this patent because they rarely do a press release on patent approvals.
As I half expected, the recent drop in pps took us down far enough to fill the gap up that happened the day the company announced the Lifecell settlement. Arun's subsequent comments related to growth in Spy Elite not happening until the second half of 2015 was the catalyst to closing the gap up.
This stock is now now primarily owned by the institutions. Since there are only 55 million shares outstanding, all it takes is one or two institutions selling or buying to cause sharp swings in the pps.
Events that could cause a sharp increase in the pps is Japanese approval of Pinpoint. The same for China and maybe South Korea. The potential for acquisition always exist here. Otherwise, we're going to have to wait for 4th quarter results and more importantly what Arun forecast for 2015 growth. I am hoping that he indicates continued growth in the 40% range and increased gross margins. It also would be very helpful if he indicated that the company will begin to see quarterly profits sometime in 2015.
For the period ending 11/15, short interest spiked up 254 thousand shares to 3,538,000, a record high short interest position. This spike up probably caused by the large increase in the pps at the end of october because of the settlement announced with lifecell. What are these folks thinking? Do they believe that the marketing effort will fail?
Happy Thanksgiving to all here.
I should have expanded the message. While the overall number of shares owned by Institutions increased, overall it was the first bad quarter related to institutional ownership since I first bought shares in the company.
During the quarter there were 9 new institutional investors with an aggregate investment of 1.1 million shares. However, 22 institutions sold out their positions aggregating 5.2 million shares. The major offset to those sales of stock was the increased investment of Fidelity, which increased it's position by 3.5 million shares, and Janus which increased it's position by 2.9 million shares to 5.3 million shares.
Add to the above the Chase position and you now have 3 institutions who aggregately own 35% of the company. There is an obvious vulnerability there.
The day after the Lifecell settlement was announced the pps gaped up strongly. The day after the 3rd quarter CC in which after muttiple questions were asked and thoroughly answered about the Lifecell transition, the stock increased over a point. Since the company now will keep 100% of the revenue on Spy Elite sales the analyst increased their revenue forecast for 2015. Given how smoothly the transition was to take place, I believe that analyst concluded that revenues from Spy Elite would increase early in the year.
At the investor day presentations it was indicated by management that regrowth of Spy Elite would be seen no sooner then the second half of 2015. Analyst then adjusted their revenue projections and the stock began falling that day. Arun at Stiffel repeated the comment of Spy Elite regrowth commencing in the second half of 2015 and the slide in pps has continued.
One other point I tried to make a couple of days ago. Gap ups and gap downs when not supported by a fundamental change usually get filled. Yesterday we began filling that gap up caused by the Lifecell settlement. So, unfortunately, we could see a further pps decline down to about the $13.50 level.