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Novadaq Technologies Inc. Message Board

e11ndofwar 28 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 3, 2016 10:50 AM Member since: May 23, 2012
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  • e11ndofwar by e11ndofwar Feb 3, 2016 10:50 AM Flag

    A very limited number of Institutions have reported their exposure to the company as of 12/31/15. None of the larger exposures have reported as yet. Of the 13 who have reported, 8 reduced their positions, 4 maintained their positions and 1 increased. Given the fact that the company has already reported strong revenues for the 4th quarter, a strong 1st quarter could hopefully reverse this trend.
    regards
    endo
    p.s. This is obviously a very, very tough market.

  • Reply to

    1st Quarter

    by e11ndofwar Jan 29, 2016 8:04 AM
    e11ndofwar e11ndofwar Jan 29, 2016 5:06 PM Flag

    The first time we can possibly get an insight into the 1st quarter is when the company has its 4th quarter CC in late February. I believe it was around 2/25 last year.
    regards endo

  • e11ndofwar by e11ndofwar Jan 29, 2016 8:04 AM Flag

    As with most regular posters here, I believe that Novadaq has been caught up in Institutions reducing their exposure across the board. We have been hit particularly hard because of continuing uncertainty related to the progress of our marketing efforts.

    We had a solid 4th quarter compared to the 4th quarter of 2014. Now the company has to show that that momentum will be continued here in 2016. We had a terrible 1st quarter in 2015 which resulted in the company reducing its projected 2015 revenues. I believe 1st quarter 2016 results are absolutely critical for the company. I do not believe the market will tolerate an excuse filled poor showing in the 1st quarter, not with the salesforce fast approaching 100 salesmen.

    On the other hand, a strong 1st quarter that crushes 1st quarter 2015 results will go a long way to convincing the market that the marketing effort has now taken root. We have a great product. We have little or no competition. We now have an experienced salesforce. We have no excuses now, none that will be accepted by the market. Keeping my fingers crossed.
    regards
    endo

  • Reply to

    Downgrade ---take II

    by andersongordon Jan 27, 2016 12:47 PM
    e11ndofwar e11ndofwar Jan 29, 2016 7:17 AM Flag

    Interesting how the street is crowded with all of these downgrades and at the same time short interest keeps dropping. As of 1/15/16 short interst declined another 534 thousand shares and now stands at 4.8 million shares. That is a sizable drop from the peak level in excess of 7 million shares several months ago.
    regards
    endo

  • Reply to

    Downgrade this morning?

    by bridgejumper08 Jan 14, 2016 10:32 AM
    e11ndofwar e11ndofwar Jan 14, 2016 8:09 PM Flag

    Buzzybob & AG

    In spite of a bad overall market, this stock was holding up pretty well on january 12 and 13. So I don't think today's substantial drop was caused by disappointment in either 4th qtr revenues or 2016 forecast. Is it possible that it was a combination of both your comments?

    Out of the box, we have several bulk sales of over 120 thousand shares. It almost looked like a margin call sale or at the very least someone desperate to unload shares. That action caused the stock to drop sharply down to the $12.50 range. This now gave the seller of the $12.50 calls the opportunity to lean on the share price to keep it below the strike price.

    The one worrisome aspect is the fact that 1 million shares traded on a very up day. I cannot think of what negative event might have developed that some players know about and we don't. Certainly, Arun's presentation and the subsequent Q & A were very positive and upbeat, particularly as it related to competition and the company's marketing efforts.

    I have to admit I spent a good part of the day watching the trades in complete shock.
    regards
    endo

  • Reply to

    J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference 2016

    by buzzybob Jan 12, 2016 6:57 PM
    e11ndofwar e11ndofwar Jan 12, 2016 8:10 PM Flag

    Buzzy

    The presentation was short, but for the first time that I can recall, they also recorded the subsequent 24 minute Q&A, and it is also available on the company's web site. One note, the sound is very poor for the first 7 minutes but gets much better. During that Q&A Arun was asked about the revenue projections for 2016 and when could we expect substantially greater growth. He indicated that he was comfortable with the forecast and if there was an upside surprise it could come from International sales. In Germany they are selling direct and now have 30 systems in hospitals in Germany. Revenue growth could become more explosive when the results of the two big trials are released.
    regards
    endo

  • e11ndofwar by e11ndofwar Jan 12, 2016 7:14 PM Flag

    For the 15 day period ending 12/31/15, short interest declined sharply from 5.9 million shares to 5.4 million.
    In spite of recent declines, short interest remains at about 10% of shares outstanding. The 4th quarter revenue numbers should result in further reductions.
    regards
    endo

  • e11ndofwar by e11ndofwar Jan 12, 2016 9:21 AM Flag

    A 2016 growth rate of about 36% would not be bad considering the fact that most of the more straight forward opportunities such as teaching hospitals, major hospitals in major cities etc. have already become customers.

    If they move toward meeting their 2016 revenue projections in an orderly way, we are going to have some very nice quarterly year over year growth results. For example, the 1st quarter of 2015 we only did $11.7 million in revenues and only $15.1 million in the 2nd quarter.

    I believe they were badly embarrassed in 2015 when they had to lower their full year forecast. Now, they are probably in a under promise and over deliver posture. The market opens in 10 minutes, it will be interesting to see the reaction.
    regards
    endo

  • Reply to

    breakout?

    by vonpezel Jan 6, 2016 4:24 PM
    e11ndofwar e11ndofwar Jan 6, 2016 4:57 PM Flag

    The 1/12/15 press release was very disappointing with revenues coming in at $13 million. At the time there was an expectation of the number coming in at $15 million plus. Even AG's most conservative projection for the 4th quarter of 2015 will exceed the $13 million by more than 50%. Even though they missed the 4th quarter badly last year, the stock price twice made a move up to $17. Then along came April and the soft 1st quarter and the downward adjustment of annual revenues and the stock crashed down to the $10 to $11 level. We have been trying to fight back ever since.

    The action the last 3 days, particularly given the slide in the overall market, is very impressive. Add to that the strong volume today at almost 600 thousand shares and it certainly gives one hope.
    regards
    endo

  • Reply to

    Will 4 be the charm

    by e11ndofwar Dec 22, 2015 11:57 AM
    e11ndofwar e11ndofwar Jan 5, 2016 6:23 PM Flag

    LOL.

    I'm not a chartist, not even close, but I do see something that keeps happening. Every time the pps gets into the $13.50 to $14.00 range, the RSI touches 70 which indicates that the stock is over bought and down we go. Let's hope we overcome the problem this time. The behavior of the stock yesterday and today has been pretty good given the overall market.
    regards
    endo

  • e11ndofwar by e11ndofwar Dec 31, 2015 10:44 AM Flag

    Both of you attended the Investor Day conference. Setting aside product discussions, etc. what was your general impression of how the marketing effort was progressing in the 4th quarter? I know AG spoke with Arun about certain aspects and he mentioned them here right after the meeting. What I guess I am trying to get a handle on is the tone of their comments. What level of optimism did you sense not only from management but from the analyst who also attended ? Let me put it another way, when the meeting ended, on a scale of 1 to 10, how confident were you that they were on their way to a strong 4th quarter?
    regards and Happy New Year
    endo

  • Reply to

    Novadaq Forecaste Dec 25, 2015

    by andersongordon Dec 26, 2015 11:59 AM
    e11ndofwar e11ndofwar Dec 28, 2015 4:24 PM Flag

    AG

    The numbers that are most important to me are the 4th qtr 2015 results. If your calculations are correct, then even your worse case scenario results in them just missing their original $65 million revenue target. The worse case scenario also produces an attractive sequential increase in revenues of 20%.

    My recollection is that two years ago they had an excellent 4th qtr and released their revenue numbers either the same day or the day before the big january investor conference which is scheduled for 1/12/16. Thanks for the hard work.
    regards endo
    p.s. As of 12/15, short interest declined again by about 100 thousand shares to 5.9 million shares.

  • Reply to

    Will 4 be the charm

    by e11ndofwar Dec 22, 2015 11:57 AM
    e11ndofwar e11ndofwar Dec 26, 2015 7:25 AM Flag

    AG

    This is Off Topic

    Thought you might be amused by this. I asked a friend at my golf club who owns an upscale restaurant how much he would charge to prepare and serve my Christmas Eve supper. At first, he just laughed, shook his head and said a lot. I pressed him and he gave it a moment or two of thought.

    First he said he would require a guaranteed minimum of 10 couples with a large payment upfront. It would be a price fix charge of about $150 per person, not including liquor, plus a guaranteed tip of 15%. If Novadaq doesn't get it's you know what together I am going to bill my kids next Christmas Eve. lol
    regards
    endo

  • e11ndofwar by e11ndofwar Dec 22, 2015 11:57 AM Flag

    Three times in the last six months we have made a move to break out only to fall sharply. In the middle of july we moved up to around $13.45 and fell back sharply. In the middle of September we moved up to $13.50 and fell back sharply. And again in the middle of november we moved up to $13.80 and fell back.

    We have now moved up to $13.23. Let us hope this is the result of word slipping out about a strong 4th quarter. I need it because I just returned from the local fish store where I bought the 7 fishes for Christmas Eve. The cost of fish has now reached a level so high I wish I was another nationality. lol

    Wishing all of you and your families a very safe and happy holiday season.
    regards
    endo

  • e11ndofwar by e11ndofwar Dec 10, 2015 9:52 AM Flag

    The company is now scheduled to present at the JP Morgan Chase healthcare conference on 1/12/16. If they have the kind of 4th quarter Andersongordon expects they might preannounce 4th quarter revenue. From my lips to God's ears. lol
    regards endo

  • e11ndofwar by e11ndofwar Dec 10, 2015 8:22 AM Flag

    Declined 244 thousand shares for the last two weeks of November to 6,051,000 shares. Short interest declined by 800 thousand shares for the month of November.
    regards endo

  • Reply to

    Filled the gap up

    by e11ndofwar Nov 19, 2015 7:03 PM
    e11ndofwar e11ndofwar Dec 2, 2015 9:31 AM Flag

    Pezel

    lol. vodka on the rocks with one small onion. I am hoping that the window dressing selling
    remains moderate as this month progresses. Given the movement of the overall market over the
    past two years and our lack of any movement, the road for us could get very bumpy this month.
    regards
    endo

  • Reply to

    Filled the gap up

    by e11ndofwar Nov 19, 2015 7:03 PM
    e11ndofwar e11ndofwar Nov 27, 2015 6:46 AM Flag

    Pezel
    Out of curiosity why would you write that in your opinion a decline in institutional activity is a non event?
    regards endo

  • e11ndofwar by e11ndofwar Nov 25, 2015 6:42 AM Flag

    For the period ending 11/13, short interest declined 555 thousand shares to 6.3 million shares. Over the past month short interest has declined by 932 thousand shares.

    As expected the recent sharp decline in the pps resulted in reducing it below the gap up that occurred subsequent to the company reporting 3rd quarter earnings.

    Wishing all of the visitors to this site a Happy and safe Thanksgiving.
    regards
    endo

  • e11ndofwar by e11ndofwar Nov 19, 2015 7:03 PM Flag

    On 10/29, the stock gaped up at the open from a close on 10/28 of $11.33 to an open on 10/29 of $12.07. Not surprisingly, that gap up has now been filled.

    All the major Institutions have now reported their exposures effective 9/30/15. For the first time that I can recall institutional exposure declined by about 2.8 million shares but still remains slightly over 90%.
    regards
    endo

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