Novadaq Technologies Inc. Message Board

Right until yesterday Dr. Gulfo never gave any indication that the company was going to miss the 275 placements by the end of March. Not only miss it but miss it by 50%. We put too much faith in what he was saying and not enough focus on what the Melafinder was revealing week in and week out. That was our most fundamental mistake. Given the rapidly accelerating expenses, placements and usage had to begin also rapidly expanding. In effect our expenses were increasing at a rate of 75 mph and now we know that placements are increasing at a rate of 20mph. The current stock price is not the result of bashers here or manipulation. Anyone who really believes that is completely and totally wrong. Listen to the questions analyst ask at conference calls. They are all geared to generating cash flow analyses. The stock is selling for $1.09 because there is no sign that the huge negative cash flows are going to decline substantially any time soon. Further dilution at a very low pps is now inevitable. Anyone who believes otherwise does not understand how cash flow is calculated. I lost serious money on this investment and now own only a 1000 shares. I will return if and when the company gets its negative cash flows substantially reduced. Good luck to all of you.
regards endo

Late last year I posted that the business cemetary was littered with biotech companies that received FDA approval for a product and then failed. The problem was not the product but the inability of the research doctor CEO transforming himself into a business manager CEO. Listening to Gulfo today it was clear that he continues to have a problem crossing that bridge. Here is an example. Again today for the 5th consecutive quarterly CC he mentioned the importance of getting the manufacturing costs lowered. The company is drowning in negative cash flows and he still cannot get the manufacturer to either lower or modify the payment schedule. Everybody is taking him over the hot coals. Now the Derms have restructured the card payments from $50 per card to $12.50 per mole with an expected 2 moles per usage or $25 per card. Gulfo never acknowledged that there is no guarantee that the Derms will pay less to Mela but charge the patient the same amount. I could go on and on and on, but like most longs here, I am too disgusted and frustrated. A EXCELLENT PRODUCT BEING SOLD BY AN AMATEUR.
endo

Institutional activity reports as of 3/31/13 have begun to be posted. Here are some highlights:
JPMorgan plus 852,000 to 2,871,000
Wells fargo minus 299,000 to 642,000
Thomson plus 318,000 to 318,000
UBS minus 292,000 to 0
There were half a dozen moves up of 50,000 shares or less.
Total Institutional ownership at 49% of shares outstanding.
regards endo

As you'd expect, the gap up yesterday has now been closed.
regards endo

Out of the box, the first trade of the day was 50,000 shares at $1.35, up 7 cents. We shall see what we shall see.
regards endo

Piper increases price from $14 to $16
Cannacord increases from $15 to $18
regards endo

There are some here who believe that reaching the goal of 275 placements is not as critical as showing that the momentum of placements is increasing. I am not in that camp for several reasons. First and foremost, the market is very much focused on the company's high level of negative cash flows. The market needs to see substantial progress in physical placements, not comments from Gulfo indicating that the pipeline for possible placements is expanding rapidly. Secondly, the market also wants to see clear evidence that existing placements are substantially increasing usage. During the 4th quarter CC, Gulfo's comments related to average usage were extremely disappointing. This is a critical CC for us longs, so good luck to all.
regards endo

If this message board is any indication, and I believe it is, there is very little retail interest in this stock. One reason is that the retail investor might be seeing the company as a one trick pony. On the other hand, as indicated by the institutional analyst questions today, Institutions are beginning to see this company in a very different light. Over and over today, in response to questions asked, the CEO indicated the inroads the company is making in expanding the types of operations where the use of its equipment is effective in reducing hosital costs through the reduction of post operative complications.
When you begin to aggregate the number of procedures in which the company's equipment can play a valuable role it is beginning to approach millions not thousands. And therein is why Andersongordon's statement about the stock still being a 10 bagger plus is not unreasonable. Two years from now it will be the razor blades driving profitabilty not new razors. Two years from now the use of this equipment as the standard of care in multiple procedures is very realistic. By the time the retail investor community realizes what is going on here, the pps is going to be out of their reach.
regards endo

If today's action is being caused by word leaking out that there has been a ver positive upward movement in both placements and usage, it begs a legitimate question by us long term longs. Why hasn't the Melafinder section on the company's web site revealed a substantial increase in placements. I live on Long Island and over the past six months the number of placements has only increased by 3 within 100 miles of my zip code. That territory covers a large universe of derms.
regards endo

This is the first time since FDA approval that the stock has gaped up at the open on strong volume. Do the whales know something us minnows can only hope for? Fortunately, we will know in the not too distant future.
regards endo

Yes, Gulfo has not performed as well as many of us would have liked. But that is not the critical question for me. Has the Melafind device let us down is the more critical question, at least to me. On April 30th, we will receive a much clearer insight into both placement and usage activity. Nothing else is important and that is why many longs here, like me, have not been posting recently. Anyone who spends anytime at all responding to the bashers here is a childish fool. Good luck to the longs here.
regards endo

Any thoughts on the recent developments would be appreciated.
regards endo