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Air Transport Services Group, Inc. Message Board

eagledragon1 30 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 2, 2015 4:29 PM Member since: Feb 8, 2008
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  • Reply to

    Quarter Special Dividend?

    by jimcooper28 Feb 25, 2015 8:44 PM
    eagledragon1 eagledragon1 Mar 2, 2015 4:29 PM Flag

    This is indeed an old discussion. I'm going to throw a slow pitch here and see if anybody swings. I do not see a special dividend being issued for a variety of reasons, most of which have already been posted. What I do see is a moderately good chance of the dividend being raised to .29 or .30 per Q. Management gave themselves a healthy pat on the back and I don't believe they are going to do this without offering some form of reward to shareholders.
    Raising the dividend should raise the share price to adjust to the yield and if the share price rises we all know what that will yield, another offering which would again likely be accretive to book value. This would also gain more assets for management to administer and thus raise their fee collection pool.
    Is this any kind of compromise to you guys? :o)

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    BAM!

    by eagledragon1 Feb 24, 2015 4:46 PM
    eagledragon1 eagledragon1 Feb 24, 2015 4:51 PM Flag

    Summary of Fourth Quarter 2014:
    • Net income attributable to common stockholders of $40.5 million, or $0.42 per share.

    • Net interest income of $18.8 million and net interest margin of 432 basis points.

    • Issued 14,410,019 shares of common stock in an underwritten public offering, resulting in net proceeds of approximately $110.8 million after deducting underwriting discounts, commissions and offering expenses.

    • Completed the sale of a first loss PO security and certain IO securities issued by a single Freddie Mac-sponsored securitization, realizing a gain of approximately $22.7 million.

    • Sold and refinanced distressed residential mortgage loans with a carrying value of approximately $29.3 million for aggregate proceeds of approximately $34.2 million, which resulted in a net realized gain, before income taxes, of approximately $4.9 million.

    • Closed on the acquisition of a pool of re-performing mortgage loans for an aggregate purchase price, including accrued interest, of $328.4 million. The re-performing loans had an unpaid principal balance of approximately $367.6 million at the closing date. The Company used a portion of the proceeds from our November 2014 public offering and approximately $238.9 million of borrowings under a master repurchase facility to fund the acquisition.

    • Book value per common share of $7.07 at December 31, 2014 as compared to $6.98 per common share at September 30, 2014 and $6.33 at December 31, 2013.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • eagledragon1 by eagledragon1 Feb 24, 2015 4:46 PM Flag

    .42 and 7.07

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • eagledragon1 eagledragon1 Feb 19, 2015 2:28 PM Flag

    Let's put it all out there and not cherry pick. 10 year Treasury rates:
    Jan. 2, 2014 - 2.99%
    Feb. 3, 2014 - 2.58%
    Mar. 3, 2014 - 2.61%
    Apr. 1, 2014 - 2.76%
    May 1, 2014 - 2.61%
    June 2, 2014 - 2.53%
    July 1, 2014 - 2.56%
    Aug. 1, 2014 - 2.51%
    Sep. 2, 2014 - 2.42%
    Oct. 1, 2014 - 2.40%
    Nov. 3, 2014 - 2.35%
    Dec. 1, 2014 - 2.22%
    Jan. 2, 2015 - 2.12%
    Feb. 2, 2015 - 1.67%
    Interest rate fell .87% from Jan.'14 to Jan.'15 = 870 basis points. Paint it any way you want but the bottom line is apparent.
    In Q4 alone the rate fell .28% or 280 basis points. What did you claim, less than 100?
    This is what I mean when I use the term "realistic". They may have recovered somewhat, but are still at a level I sure wouldn't brag about. I am a bit concerned how much this situation bit into total 2014 revenues and how much it is affecting current balances.

  • eagledragon1 eagledragon1 Feb 13, 2015 3:14 PM Flag

    I hold 5 figures in share count of ENTR. My cost basis is in the 2.70s, so obviously I'm currently one of the lucky ones. I mention this only to qualify my next statement. I intend to hold through this merger. I've done a lot of in depth research on MXL and everything to do with it the last few days. I've looked at all the numbers concerning stockholder equities in both companies now and after this deal. I've looked at earnings, good and bad. I've looked at guidances, ratings, new share pool, multiples, PEs, etc., etc.. For all AVAILABLE information I can find I've come to the conclusion that there may well be some upside worth waiting for on the back end of this deal. JMHO of course.
    Maple WAY overdoes it, but on some BASIC levels he is possibly correct. (Please Maple, don't let this go to your head)

  • eagledragon1 eagledragon1 Feb 13, 2015 12:14 PM Flag

    What do you imagine is BlackRock's cost basis on their total position?

  • Reply to

    We have a winner!!

    by eagledragon1 Feb 12, 2015 7:44 PM
    eagledragon1 eagledragon1 Feb 12, 2015 10:22 PM Flag

    Agreed, a waste of time at this point. The deal appears perfectly reasonable based on Entropics self inflicted 2014/Q4 asset impairment parade. What the hell is MXL supposed to pony up more for at this point? I would fully expect that it was some large holders that strongly suggested putting themselves on the market. I don't think shareholder voting is going to stop this merger. Changing the terms of the deal at this point is actually rather redundant. The SEC filing clearly stated that other parties could approach and offer so it can't be said they haven't left the "shopping" open.

    Catch 22 - between a rock and a hard place - it is what it is what it is...

  • eagledragon1 by eagledragon1 Feb 12, 2015 7:44 PM Flag

    SAN DIEGO, Feb. 12, 2015 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The Shareholders Foundation, Inc. announces that an investor, who currently holds shares of Entropic Communications, Inc. (ENTR), filed a lawsuit in an effort to stop the proposed takeover of Entropic Communications, Inc. by MaxLinear for a value of approximately $3.01 per share.

    The game's afoot.

  • eagledragon1 eagledragon1 Feb 12, 2015 5:27 PM Flag

    I listen to and read e v e r y t h I n g. I tend to filter the forward looking statements as some of them in the past have been no more accurate than a weather forecast. I sincerely hope you are correct. I sincerely hope they are correct this time. Let's see what the hard numbers are next month and go from there.
    I'll believe all the predictions when I See The Money. ;)

  • Reply to

    Something is fishy

    by gw12354 Feb 12, 2015 10:40 AM
    eagledragon1 eagledragon1 Feb 12, 2015 2:17 PM Flag

    You're kidding, right? Rates have dropped a lot more than 100 basis points in Q4 alone.
    I believe one of these deals with DHL also produced a 1 mm deduction in annual revenues.
    Now if everything is looking so rosy, why the restrictive trading range? Why aren't analysts pounding more earnings on this year's estimates? No taxes, more equipment placement, share buyback authorized, new DHL contract, and yet little share appreciation. Go ahead and blame the index. I sincerely hope they don't buy back 1 single share at current pricing levels.
    Honestly, I hope they beat the estimates by a significant margin of at least 3 or 4 cents and the stock flies over 10. I'm definitely not a short here, but I try to be realistic too.

  • Reply to

    Something is fishy

    by gw12354 Feb 12, 2015 10:40 AM
    eagledragon1 eagledragon1 Feb 12, 2015 1:23 PM Flag

    Show Me The Money. I don't see this making much headway unless the Q4 report is very good. There are some headwinds as I have mentioned before concerning earnings. I asked EX why no mention concerning pensions and he knew the answer. Their payments are indeed tied to interest rates. When the rates increase they enjoy a substantial savings in pension payments, when it drops their payment liability increases. What have the interest rates done since this was explained to shareholders? They have dropped, and not just a little.

    I'm not saying they are going to report a miss, but there is trepidation as to how this situation in particular has effected them. Considering this is going on:

    Joseph C. Hete, the President and Chief Executive Officer; Quint O. Turner, the Chief Financial Officer; and Richard F. Corrado, the Chief Commercial Officer, of Air Transport Services Group, Inc. ("ATSG"), will be presenting and holding a series of one-on-one meetings with investors and analysts at the BB&T Capital Markets' 30th Annual Transportation Services Conference being held at the Biltmore Hotel in Coral Gables, Florida on Wednesday, February 11, 2015.

    and we are seeing the current state of trading, there may be some cause for concern. We should have answers around March 5th.

  • Reply to

    8.23

    by eagledragon1 Feb 6, 2015 11:44 AM
    eagledragon1 eagledragon1 Feb 9, 2015 6:35 PM Flag

    CARLSBAD, Calif. (AP) _ MaxLinear Inc. (MXL) on Monday reported a loss of $2.4 million in its fourth quarter.

    The Carlsbad, California-based company said it had a loss of 6 cents per share. Earnings, adjusted for one-time gains and costs, came to 5 cents per share.

    The results topped Wall Street expectations. The average estimate of analysts surveyed by Zacks Investment Research was for earnings of 4 cents per share.

    The chipmaker posted revenue of $32.5 million in the period.

    For the year, the company reported that its loss narrowed to $7 million, or 19 cents per share. Revenue was reported as $133.1 million.

    For the current quarter ending in March, MaxLinear said it expects revenue in the range of $34 million to $35 million.

    MaxLinear shares have climbed 11 percent since the beginning of the year. In the final minutes of trading on Monday, shares hit $8.26, a drop of 14 percent in the last 12 months.

  • eagledragon1 eagledragon1 Feb 9, 2015 11:55 AM Flag

    What happened to all the expected savings in pension payments?

  • Reply to

    Shareholder Class action

    by mrxit1 Feb 4, 2015 7:12 PM
    eagledragon1 eagledragon1 Feb 6, 2015 5:24 PM Flag

    Just my opinion, but I doubt this deal gets sweetened. I honestly think this is the best deal the ENTR BOD could hammer out with MXL based on remaining asset value after ENTR bludgeoned their worth with impairments. I think the pertinent question here is WHY Entropic took this hit and lowered their book value to 1.96. Were we as shareholders of Entropic getting the wool pulled over our eyes as to the value of the company? And when it came to brass tacks were they forced to come clean in any buy out/merger negotiations?

    I think the attorney firms are just trolling for $$$. In the end I'm afraid litigation would be a waste of time. Again, this is more of a merger, so trying to sweeten the front end of the deal is just going to sour the back end.

    I'd love to sit Patrick Henry in front of a judge and grill him on the continuing misrepresentation of guidance concerning future revenues based on supposed pending orders. And I would like to know why the company stripped its value just as they make this deal.

  • Reply to

    Shareholder Class action

    by mrxit1 Feb 4, 2015 7:12 PM
    eagledragon1 eagledragon1 Feb 6, 2015 1:41 PM Flag

    If you hold shares of ENTR that were bought before the acquisition announcement, you may freely join a suit as a lead plaintiff. They prefer you hold your shares to participate in proxy votes if necessary, but it doesn't exclude you from joining a suit.

    As far as the number of sharks in the pool. Some will register lead plaintiffs, some won't. After a period of time which I am not positive about, the case would be consolidated under one firm.

    Be careful as some of the claims these firms are making are somewhat misleading. Stating a single analyst had a one year target of 5.00, the latest stated book value is 2.19 (it has since been revised), or it has traded as high as 4.80 in the last 52 weeks are totally bogus points of contention in a court room. Also remember this is more a merger than a buy out. That makes a difference in the whole process as one of the results of this merger is ENTR holders obtaining value through this merger by obtaining MXL shares on the backside.

    I'm not telling anyone to join or not join a suit, I very well may myself. Just getting a little fact in here edgewise between all the Maple drivel.

  • Reply to

    8.23

    by eagledragon1 Feb 6, 2015 11:44 AM
    eagledragon1 eagledragon1 Feb 6, 2015 12:55 PM Flag

    ENTR book value revised to 1.96 (as of 12/31/2014) after large asset impairment recorded on 4Q report.

  • eagledragon1 by eagledragon1 Feb 6, 2015 11:44 AM Flag

    Remember that price. MXL falls below that and that advertised 3.01 drops. Read the SEC filing and you will see there is no lock or guarantee at 3.01 as a minimum transaction price. We have a floating rate acquisition/merger.

  • eagledragon1 eagledragon1 Feb 4, 2015 11:42 AM Flag

    Right now the whole pack is being shot in the #$%$ with rock salt.

  • eagledragon1 eagledragon1 Feb 4, 2015 11:42 AM Flag

    Yea....LOL...could you imagine.

  • eagledragon1 eagledragon1 Feb 4, 2015 11:25 AM Flag

    You make a good cheerleader, but a lousy analyst.

ATSG
9.08+0.02(+0.22%)Mar 3 4:00 PMEST

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