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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

eagledragon1 1408 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 15, 2014 9:47 PM Member since: Feb 8, 2008
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  • eagledragon1 eagledragon1 Aug 15, 2014 9:47 PM Flag

    Interesting guess on my profession. If I told you that the guess was correct would it make a difference?
    You have a company that is expanding revenue and it's reach. You have a company that at present is taxless and expecting appreciable gains via pension payment savings. cash cash abounds.... a whole .37 per share which equals 23.76M of cash on hand. Cash flow does not equal cash on hand. The value of this company lies mainly in assets, not cash. Could they raise cash by selling off assets, sure. Could they show a net profit on selling those assets, possibly. But then you are in a position to either replace those assets (via increased capital expenditure) or take a hit in revenues because of lost business those sold assets carried.
    The numbers say buying back shares now, even at these recently deflated prices, is a bad investment. Most times buybacks are used as a defensive device and many times never realized at all. The share price drops off to around 6, then a reasonable investment starts to materialize. Let's hope that does not happen.
    Paying a dividend is a very bad move, especially considering cash on hand. A dividend may look nice in hand, but it is also a dollar for dollar reduction in book value. P/B is not an insignificant measure. Evaluations are closely gauged to P/B as well as P/E in analyst value determinations.
    If Hete really wants to give shareholders the best bang for their buck with what we know today, then INVEST unrestricted funds. They of course have done some of that. They should continue as long as they remain conservative in terms of risk. The final goal being to keep ever increasing that book value and letting the multiples guide the share price value higher. We are finally heading back upslope, I see no sense whatsoever in building speed bumps along the way.

  • eagledragon1 eagledragon1 Aug 15, 2014 6:14 PM Flag

    Don't give me unicorns defecating rainbows. If you can't do the math simply admit it. The current book value is listed at 5.93/share. If they spent 50M at an average share price of 8.50 on a buyback your left with a book value on the remaining shares of 5.67 or a per share drop in book value of .26.
    Does a possible .02/Q increase in EPS from the buyback justify this drop?? I think not.

  • eagledragon1 eagledragon1 Aug 15, 2014 1:55 PM Flag

    Tell me EX, how do you see buying shares in the 8.50 range affecting the book value?

  • eagledragon1 eagledragon1 Aug 4, 2014 5:29 PM Flag

    I'm guessing .12
    No guess from you? Is that because you were buying at 8.50 and calling a floor at 8?

  • eagledragon1 by eagledragon1 Aug 1, 2014 10:58 AM Flag

    And the hits keep coming. It appears quite a few holders realized the run was over. This time we have a director dumping over 10k shares a couple days ago. It was not an automatic sale

    I still think this baby is overpriced.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    Two tepid releases in a row

    by hard_luck_investor Jul 6, 2014 5:27 PM
    eagledragon1 eagledragon1 Jul 11, 2014 9:43 PM Flag

    Right now instead of selling advertisements, they're buying them, at least in my region of the country. That is something in itself I like to see, especially for a company with no debt. They have an efficient method of developing and market testing so whether or not they "crush" the market again they'll likely continue to produce a string of profitable product.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Piper Jaffray upgrade

    by tomnehme Jul 7, 2014 9:32 AM
    eagledragon1 eagledragon1 Jul 8, 2014 1:57 PM Flag

    There is a lot of accumulation going on, a very manipulated accumulation.
    It seems I myself brought the share price down about 50 cents today. I've bought 5 tranches today and the pattern is exactly the same, within a second of filling the order the share price dives about 10 cents, even if the share price hasn't moved in 30 minutes or more. Makes no difference if you set a lower limit order or accept the ask, the result is the same. It once worked properly years ago. If you bought shares on the ask, then the share price would rise. If you sold on the ask, the share price would drop. That is how it is supposed to work normally. But with all the algos these slimeball institutions run on HFT platforms, this is the resulting mess the retail investors are left with time after time.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • "FORT WORTH, Texas, June 9, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- Basic Energy Services, Inc. (BAS) ("Basic") today announced the commencement of a secondary public offering of 6,000,000 shares of common stock on behalf of DLJ Merchant Banking Partners III, L.P. and related funds (the "Selling Stockholders"). Goldman, Sachs & Co. will act as underwriter for the offering. Goldman, Sachs & Co. is expected to be granted a 30-day option to purchase up to 900,000 additional shares from the Selling Stockholders.

    Basic will not receive any proceeds from the sale of the shares of common stock by the Selling Stockholders in this offering. The offering will be made pursuant to a shelf registration statement on Form S-3, which was filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") on April 11, 2012 and declared effective on April 17, 2012."

    Someone must think upside is limited...

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • eagledragon1 by eagledragon1 May 12, 2014 4:43 PM Flag

    "(v) eases certain restrictions with respect to the ability of ATSG, and each of ATSG's direct and indirect domestic subsidiaries, to declare or pay dividends and repurchase capital stock"

    From latest filing.

  • eagledragon1 eagledragon1 Apr 27, 2014 1:46 PM Flag

    May have upgraded too soon.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • eagledragon1 by eagledragon1 Mar 18, 2014 11:26 AM Flag

    Never a positive sign.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • eagledragon1 by eagledragon1 Mar 10, 2014 7:49 PM Flag

    I made quite a bit of money here over the years. Kind of sorry to see it go. Best of luck to everyone in their future endeavors. Last one out the door please turn the lights off. Hasta la vista.

  • Reply to

    Circling the Drain

    by sinkingintherain Mar 5, 2014 9:25 AM
    eagledragon1 eagledragon1 Mar 5, 2014 4:45 PM Flag

    This was a big miss. Cost of funding will continue rising. Icahn could bail any time from here and still run to the bank with a small fortune. He may not wait around, I wouldn't at this point.

  • Reply to


    by ronalddickman Feb 25, 2014 10:46 AM
    eagledragon1 eagledragon1 Feb 28, 2014 4:09 PM Flag

    No, 6.17, the cost basis on the position. I ended up with a 9.10 average on the sellout. It was about a 10 month hold. Since I sold out today it's bound to hit 9.50 ;o) Best of luck to you too Groove.

  • Reply to


    by ronalddickman Feb 25, 2014 10:46 AM
    eagledragon1 eagledragon1 Feb 28, 2014 3:37 PM Flag

    I sold out the 10K position at 6.17 today. I agree with you 100%. No sense getting greedy. Shorting BAS again.

  • Reply to

    FRAUD FRAUD FRAUD ALERT , is SEC watching !

    by for_anand Jan 9, 2014 2:50 PM
    eagledragon1 eagledragon1 Jan 9, 2014 2:57 PM Flag

    It sure wasn't a fraud when it was skyrocketing up eh? now you can sit and spin on your stupidity! you morons were repeatedly warned, now take what you deserve!!

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • eagledragon1 eagledragon1 Jan 9, 2014 2:48 PM Flag

    The only thing destined here is you... for the poorhouse.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to


    by tripplevyllc Dec 29, 2013 9:56 AM
    eagledragon1 eagledragon1 Dec 31, 2013 1:24 PM Flag

    I hope everyone had a nice holiday. I've watched all the recent developments, looked over ALL the numbers, taken just about everything you could imagine into consideration, and have come up with a final personal determination.

    The sale price is reasonable. Hilton is not seeing all the liabilities beyond the assets. For one, the growth that VIFL enjoyed for 2013 was substantially supported by NOL write-offs. These write-offs are very quickly diminishing and will have a direct impact on eroding actual reported earnings going forward.

    There are several arguments that could be made both ways, but in the end I do not see the price offered and accepted as being inequitable to either party or shareholders. JMHO and your welcome to jump on me, that's what makes these message boards interesting!

  • eagledragon1 eagledragon1 Dec 29, 2013 10:54 AM Flag

    At this point the average one year target consisting of 23 analysts is still under 44. I can see it easily trading about 10-15% below this target at some point in 2014. So if you have the time and patience you should see your position go green eventually. Hedge funds produced this rally and they have a propensity to shoot the extremes of ranges so going to 40 or below is fairly likely. Classic pump and dump.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Warned about this that a drop was coming

    by sapx_for_2014 Dec 28, 2013 10:23 AM
    eagledragon1 eagledragon1 Dec 28, 2013 10:38 AM Flag

    I tried warning on this board. Analysts warned, brokers warned, it made no difference. These idiots married their stock. They married a pig with Tammy Baker amounts of makeup. They enjoyed a magical honeymoon which convinced them things would never go wrong. Now that the makeup is washing off, what do ya have left?

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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