Where are you getting this 13.50?? The EBITDA varies on particular planes depending on their client contracts. For example, DHL just got a 5% discount on its rates going forward. I believe the 1.8 mm reflects a fleet average. It will take a significant "surprise" to achieve 1.00 as estimates going forward are already starting a downward revision. 2017 has now fallen below .90.
Let's see how many shares they actually repurchase. And when if they do. Clint shot the short term share price in the foot when he made a note to warn analysts about the coming dilution and the resulting hit to EPS. P/E is directly affected. Just how far down it adjusts may vindicate the plan to repurchase. It could produce a favorable entry point. But not yet.
If they are such self appointed experts, why mess with AI? Why not start their own MBS enterprise? They have little skin in the game here, why here then? Very suspicious from every angle.
By the end of 2017 Amazon should have exercised on about 12.5 million shares. At 9.73 each, Amazon will be paying 121,625,000 for these first 2 tranches. If ATSG invests these funds into repurchasing shares at say 13 per share they can cover 9,355,769 of the 12.5 mm, leaving a balance of 3,144,231 shares attributable to dilution. To eliminate the remaining dilution of these first 2 tranches ATSG would need to contribute another 40,875,000 dollars (@13). They have already begun digging into their revolving credit line for 60mm to cover 4 new assets w/ mod. Just some food for thought.
Institutions don't bail over an issue such as this. There are other ways to create accommodation. If you had EVER been a REAL executive of any merit you would know this.
How do you know this issue is not connected to the consternation I just mentioned concerning the proxy vote?
Ok, the transcript of yesterday's CC is out. I suggest all interested parties read this transcript. There are numerous talking points. For example, I do believe there is some consternation concerning the proxy proposals. When questioned by an analyst concerning warrants to Amazon becoming available, Quint replied, "Yes. Andrew, of course, the shareholder vote was -- which we'll have the results of that at our meeting tomorrow, but that -- we're cautious -- we're confident, I think, that the shareholders will approve the measure."
The China JV is discussed and its expected timeline. There is a comment made that invites Amazon to get as involved as they want as time goes on. This was one of the most transparent CCs I've seen in a while.
They still insist on repurchasing shares, something I am still opposed to. For the first quarter they bought back 270,000 shares. This is negligible. From the sounds of it they are going to be using the Amazon investment to turn right around and repurchase shares. I've done the math here in another post and I disagree with their take that this is a good investment. JMO there.
I'll just touch on a few points. I'll get more into them down the road.
1. Supply and conversion availability for expansion is good. No hangups there.
2. Pension expense rose over 2 mm due to poor pension portfolio returns (low interest rate).
3. Expected capex for next year to be about the same as this year (290 mm).
4. Several items being excluded from EBITDA calculations.
5. Distinct warning from Clint concerning EPS going forward next quarter due to dilution created by warrants being excercised.
6. Accounts payable well outpacing accounts receivable (makes sense at this juncture).
Speaking of health care, you really sincerely should have yourself checked out for alzheimer's or dementia. Your preponderance to post incoherent statements, avoid and evade questions on your own comments, and fabricate fantasies concerning what Joe Hete does or thinks would be rather concerning to a psychiatrist IMHO.
You obviously missed my point yet again Ex. Should I be using smaller words, shorter sentences? I rarely attend annual meetings in person. Last time was 2 years ago at the VIFL annual meeting in Tampa.
ENTR was bought out by MXL, cash and shares. Shares doubled after the acquisition. Instead of criticizing my investment, you should have taken advantage of your discovery.
I currently have investments in 4 companies that are heading towards buyouts. HINT: None of them are REITs.
I have 2 degrees, one a masters. I never said I had no degree. You're reading comprehension is quite sub par.
Why don't you check what happened with the stock you insulted me as owning. ENTR. I believe you indicated I wasn't a "big boy" because I owned such a low priced equity. You're an idiot. Btw, I have known Amazon since 2001 when I opened my original position. I won't tell you how many shares I now own, it would likely make you ill. I look for companies constantly that I feel are good buy out targets. I've done very well over the years with this goal. Also I have learned better than a degree's worth of what goes on and what to look for concerning intrabusiness dealings.
You said: "From what I 'know' or 'think' I know about Amazon. Doesn't take them very long to figure out things. By Dec they will have a year under their belt in this biz... long enough. Will want control and realize the longer they wait the more costly it will be. In addition, not sure what they think about ATSG growing ATSG biz outside of Amazon. so sooner rather than later 1st qtr next year."
You still stick to this Ex?
You have already shown yourself to be a complete loon who never answers one of my questions. You run away like a little girl every time when you know I have a point. I wish I could indeed reveal my background.
I can say that I was a member of more than one BoD and an adviser to several others. However, I don't have the need or want to self ingratiate myself. You're a very little no one who uses your self admitted imagination to protect your ridiculous ego.
You haven't examined what AAWW brings to the table. Try reading their 2015 annual report. Check out their international connections. Check out their fleet. So after this announcement, what is your timeline for Amazon making an offer to buy out ATSG? Still within a year?
It's called competition between subcontractors. Notice Atlas has made up to 30% ownership available to Amazon. It will likely limit the velocity of future expansion within ATSG. Both parties will be obliged to further sharpen their pencils and cut costs.
DHL is nothing but a placeholder for "maintenance" revenue. ATSG makes very little net profit on their business and the best thing that could happen would be to push DHL out and replace their portion with newer higher margin accounts.
I strongly think upon review the market is going to look at this addition as a negative entity in regards to ATSG.
Just to throw a guess into the mix, I believe the delay may be related to the proxy voting.
You should really get your hearing checked.
It was announced on April 30th last year..............