Looks like we're back into a hum-drum trading range between 2.85 and 2.95. We could well stay here until the next PR takes us either up or down. Anyone know when the earnings release will be? The CC could be interesting.
You're right, money could be made available for a buyback but would that make any sense? It would reduce liquidity and that would not be helpful. I think a split would be muck better to get more investors into the stock.
That would be nice but we already have a small float and they don't have any money. In addition, they have a great deal of debt. I would not expect any buybacks at this point. Maybe in a year or two.
Anyone interested in some crazy math? Allow me run through a little. I ran some eye watering numbers with respect to the 21 million Cubic Meter prediction given in the 21 January press release. I know - this is pie in the sky stuff but interesting to contemplate, Here we go assuming $.10 per cubic Meter market price.
21x10^6x24x365x.10=18396x10^6 or 18.396x10^9 (That is 18.396 Billion) @40% Margin = 7.358 Billion
7.358B/23.95m Shares outstanding = $307.22 Per share - not bad for a $3 stock.
If any of you guys are math teachers, let me know if I screwed up the numbers
The market makers seem to be front running the bid today. You have to pay the ask or enter a market order to get filled. So far today, it appears that the deep pocket guys are taking a break as almost all the trades are 15K or less. We'll see how long that lasts.
That is true about the underground project but the first above ground facility has already demonstrated nearly 100% capacity. The second above ground plant will #$%$ line in the next few months. The PR mentioned coal being made available to SCOK and that coal would be used for above ground gasification. I believe the above ground projects will bring in significant revenue while the demo UCG project is continuing. The PPS should reflect that.
It is premature to speculate about the underground project as demo projects tend to be optimistic but we won't have to wait long to find out since the 60,000 CM/Hr portion should be finished in March. If the UCG project ever gets to the 21M CM/Hr touted, that would be about 7B per year at $.10 CM and 40% margin. Of course, this could be wildly optimistic and other factors come into play like distribution, etc. etc.
The distinction here is between investors and traders. The news should have been very encouraging to investors because of the financial implications. Traders operate differently and usually look for short term gains.. A person can certainly be both investor and trader depending on the circumstances.
Anyone notice that there is a lot of "Sub penneying" going on. This can only be done by broker/dealers or HFT programs. There can be little doubt that this is where the manipulation is coming from. They are frontrunning limit orders. I don't necessarily have a problem with that and it in no way reflects badly on SCOK and our future prospects. In a way, it could be a positive in that they consider SCOK solid enough for them to play their swing game.
The trading pattern for SCOK has been predictable for several months now; good news results in massive selling. If you believe that the company is for real, and I do, then the selling provides a great opportunity to establish a significant position at a very good price. It's impossible to know for sure what's going on but I suspect it's large scale swing trading. To do that, the sellers will need to re-enter lower as they shake out weak hands. That process should provide some stability at the lower end. Just my take, other opinions welcome.
I believe the weakness during todays trading is probably due to articles like "TheStreet" which rates the stock as a sell. Their analysis using comparables is probably reasonable assuming the same business model but the business model is not what it was last year and such comparables are invalid. I would not be surprised if TheStreet isn't buying like crazy at the lower price while their followers are selling. This is a stock to accumulate and wait and those that do that will be well rewarded.
The news this morning is very comforting for us longs. I agree, the validation component is far more important than the monetary part. The jump in PPS today gave the non-believers a chance to exit with a small profit while it gave us believers a chance to load up. Something for everyone.
chaz, I believe your numbers are correct. 40M X .139 =5,560,000 x 40% = 2,224,000 If these numbers are right and they received payment, then we could be at the beginning of something big. I may have to consider buying more if the PPS stays in the 2.60 to 2.75 range.
I guess its what you define as "impressive". True, the PRs have not had a positive market impact but it is good to get updates on company activities. The market impact will only occur when they show a turnaround in earnings and that probably won't happen before Q3 or Q4. In the mean time, updates on the various projects is interesting to me but no doubt disappointing to speculators.
flyboy, what's your take on the price action yesterday. I'm not particularly concerned but I did think the selloff was peculiar, especially after the press release. I'm thinking that a lot of people got hammered after the September run-up and now PR's are met with a lot of skepticism. Rightly so, but I think we will start seeing results soon that can't be ignored and the PPS will reflect it.
Which Government? How and why would any Government stop people from buying or selling as they see fit. Lighten up - Buy the dip if you believe in the company or move on if you don't.
The news this morning is very positive and I am delighted that the market reaction has been fairly muted. I would like to see a measured and positive bias for the PPS going forward. Once they demonstrate that earnings have turned around, we will get that positive momentum and build on it.
This article (from a year ago) describe regulations for Shaanxi Province and I believe they are similar to those in Henan province. The article posted by Chaz seem to be relaxing or redefining these restrictions. Is that correct? Also, does the Provincial Government have authority over such matters or is it a shared authority with the Central Government?