This is to entice institutions to buy BIG BLOCKS of Share.
We Want Merrill Lynch to push price up
We want JP Morgan, UBS, etc... to get behind RMTI
The problem with to few shares is that you CAN'T get the support of the big boys
THIS WILL HELP. YOU WANT BIG INSTITUTIONAL BACKING,
RMTI will be ok. Merrill would not participate otherwise. They definitely do not want an egg on their face.
You will see coverage and buy recommendations. Good Luck.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Typically, the lead underwriter will short shares and cover to stabalize price under Rule 104 and Regulation M. If price goes too high and ML can't cover the short shares profitably, they then can exercise 100% of their greenshoe option. I would guess the price is pegged close to $10 and many institutions will not touch under $10 but will provide a profitable area for ML to cover. Upon finalization of the offering, expect additional coverage of RMTI to follow to include, but not limited to Merrill Lynch.
Merrill is NOT going to underwrite a failure. They are VERY aware of adcom, PDUFA, capital build out of additional manufacturing plants. RMTI got to run their business like a bigger firm now. MERRILL and BAXTER put this on my conviction list.
You bought the options at the highest point of implied volatility. Unfortunately, they are now trading near .45. If you don't mind owning the shares outright, you can take the chance that it closes at $11.01 or higher on expiration - as such, you would be assigned the shares. If you dont mind losing the shares at $12, you could sell those calls to offset the premium you paid. Good Luck.
Agree. Triferic Works! It's safe. It's effective. Baxter, RMTI, Fishbane, Patients and 8 of 11 'expert' Adcom Panelist Agree. Enough said!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
* Hasbro is in talks with DreamWorks
* Hasbro has licensing Agreements with Disney
* The buyout most likely will hamper the Disney Relationship
* Disney may look outside of Hasbro to keep its products front and Center
JAKKS could be a beneficiary of this buyout and as such may be a buyout candidate itself.
Good Luck to JAKK shareholders.
Triferic Receives Favorable FDA Panel Vote. Raising
TP to $27 from $22.
FDA ODAC panel voted to approve Triferic. Yesterday afternoon
the ODAC panel voted favorably for the approval of RMTI's Triferic as
a maintenance therapy for CKD patients in dialysis. Eight member
voted yes and 3 voted no to the question, does the efficacy and
safety results in the two phase III trials support a positive benefit/risk
for the use of Triferic to treat iron loss? Panel members also largely
believe the data to support the ESA-sparing claim is not sufficient,
which ideally requires larger and well designed study. The outcome of
the panel discussion is largely consistent with our expectation, i.e.
Triferic should be approved but without the ESA-sparing claim in the
We expect FDA approval by the PDUFA date. Given the majority
favorable vote, we expect the FDA to follow the ODAC panel’s
recommendation and approve Triferic by its PDUFA date on January
24, 2015. We do not expect the ESA-sparing claim to be included in
the label indication.
Raising TP to $27 from $22. As a result of the positive panel vote,
we are raising our 12-month TP from $22 to $27, primarily driven by
increasing the probability of success of Triferic from 75% to 90%. In
our view, the commercial success of Triferic does not rely on the
ESA-sparing label. Rather, we believe pharmaco-economic data to
be collected in the real world by the dialysis centers will be
instrumental for the large adoption of Triferic. Additionally, we are
encouraged to see the benefit of Triferic well understood by the panel
members, which should bode well for the potential launch of Triferic.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
BUY recommendations were already affirmed prior to Adcom from Summer Street and Chardan at $25 and $22. You may see some additional affirmations, but nothing news breaking. BAXTER may want to eliminate competition and pay a premium. Shareholders would want mid $20's low $30's I would guess.
Agree. Buyout out more likely now subsequent to binary event. BAXTER can get ESA sparing label and fund additional trials. Curious how far RMTI and Baxter are in their discussions and how far apart on Price. Would love to be the flyonthewall in that discussion.
I Knew of a website that would provide daily data? Anyone Know? With nearly $8MM shares short, perhaps half of todays volume was short covering (i.e. 1.5MM shares) the other half institutional buying is my best guess. THIS WOULD ME AN 6.5MM shares are still short. We could see another $2 -$4 upside going into adcom on Thursday. With Positive Adcom vote would expect a break of 52 week high of $15.85. I think this is very reasonable as there HAS BEEN A LOT OF EFFORT to suppress the price.
The analysts with $22 and $$25 price targets and the bull case scenario of $59 can come to fruition. What do you think?
From Briefing Doc.
9.3 Overall Conclusions
Triferic (2 μM iron concentration), administered regularly with each hemodialysis via the dialysate, replaces uremia- and dialysis-associated iron losses, maintains iron balance, sustains iron delivery for efficient erythropoiesis, and maintains hemoglobin concentrations with no adverse safety concerns in adult patients with CKD-HD. Triferic at the proposed dose has substantial evidence for efficacy in two pivotal Phase 3 studies demonstrating that the chronic administration of Triferic via dialysate is an effective means of maintaining erythropoiesis by delivering iron directly into the systemic circulation for uptake by transferrin and transport to the erythroid marrow. The safety profile demonstrated adverse events consistent with the population studied and is no different from that of placebo. Overall, the benefit-to-risk profile strongly favors Triferic treatment as a safe and effective means of maintaining iron balance and hemoglobin concentrations while reducing the need for ESA and supplemental IV iron in patients with CKD-HD.
p.88 of Briefing Document clearly states strongly favoring the Risk Profile and why RMTI reached $10 earlier. AF and friends continue their bashing, but with less effectiveness now. RMTI will continue to rise as a combination of short sellers will cover and institutional buy-in who have waited for this report.
Hence, Summer Street, Chardan Capital reiterate buys AHEAD of ADCOM meeting with PRICE TARGETS of $25 and $22 respectively. Strong UP Volume tells you to follow the money on this one. $1.6 million shares already traded. SHORTS will be SCRAMBLING. Expect a ramp up to the $12 to $14 range into Thursday meeting and UPON APPROVAL, you will see the MOTHER of ALL SHORT SQUEEZES into the high teens, low $20 shortly thereafter.
Jim Molloy reiterates buy rating this morning And $25 PT into tomorrow's FDA briefing docs.
looked like the timing of that article countered the first positive SA article, but could be....the docs should be in the beige folder until tuesday
Betting Against the "Crowd"
It is widely known that options traders, especially option buyers, are not the most successful traders. On balance, option buyers lose about 90% of the time. Although there are certainly some traders who do well, would it not make sense to trade against the positions of option traders since most of them have such a bleak record?
The contrarian sentiment put/call ratio demonstrates that it does pay to go against the options-trading crowd. After all, the options crowd is usually wrong.When the ratio of put-to-call volume gets too high (meaning more puts traded relative to calls) the market is ready for a reversal to the upside and has typically been in a bearish decline. And when the ratio gets too low (meaning more calls traded relative to puts), the market is ready for a reversal to the downside (as was the case in early 2000)
historically have a skew toward more put buying. This is because of the index put option hedging done by portfolio managers - this is also why the total put/call ratio is not the ideal ratio (it is polluted by this hedging volume). Recall that the idea of contrarian sentiment analysis is to measure the pulse of the speculative option crowd, who are wrong more than they are right. We should therefore be looking at the equity-only ratio for a purer measure of the speculative trader. In addition, the critical threshold levels should be dynamic, chosen from the previous 52-week highs and lows of the series, adjusting for trends in the data.
expect docs on 11/4 - 48 prior to meting is typical. What is not typical is BAXTER'S $15 Equity Invesment PRIOR to Adcom. BAXTER wants in - BAXTER did DD - this is not their first rodeo. Baxter's reputation, Triferic efficacy and SAFETY points toward favorable Adcom and ultimate acceptance.
It's $45MM: $20MM upfront cash, $10MM Milestone Payment, and Biggest vote of confidence of All $15MM Equity Investment. You will See double digits next. Positive Adcom Short Squeeze Coming.