I expected much better.. Q4 slowed down last year too, but this year was a bigger % drop than last year from Q3 to Q4.
3/2013 $165M (-10%)
3/2012 $145M (-2%)
The margins are looking really good though. But it looks like their price increases have been too much.
Anzalone John bought 2,100 Common Stock, par value $0.01 per share @ $19.61 per share.
Anzalone John is an officer at Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. (IVR). This transaction represents a 8.0284% change in their holdings.
This transaction became public at 3:57PM today but actually occurred on Wednesday.
Okay, so they didn't say it in those words, but what is the difference?
"NIM compression is a fact of life in the agency mortgage market. Since rates have rallied back to year-end levels, and all repo rates are essentially floored, we expect that our dividend will be somewhat lower as a result of lower available reinvestment yields and our move to diversified funding and reduced rate risk."
I think it's pretty much settled that IVR is down because they announce the dividend may be cut. It isn't going up until they announce the next dividend and the market decides the cut wasn't that bad.
What has changed is the price of silver is below break even. So the more they mine, the more they lose. It was probably better when the mines were not functioning. Nevertheless, you would think somebody would want the mines in case silver ever goes back up.
This is kind of like a man who has been in a coma for 10 years suddenly wiggling a toe. He probably is still basically dead, but don't unplug the life support machines today.
I have a bid in. This can only mean they have deployed a lot of cash very quickly and have more opportunities lined up. This is a good sign.
Your numbers seem reasonable to me.
I think one of the most important items of info in the CC and presentation is that GKK got a major loan from Northwestern Mutual at 3.28%. Northwestern Mutual is a serious financial company that had to do some significant DD. You don't give a rate like that if you are not 99.99% sure you are getting your money back. Obviously the property is the collateral, but Northwestern must think that property is rock solid.
But what really leaves me scratching my head is how is Northwestern Mutual showing 6%+ returns on their very expensive whole life policies when they are investing at 3.28%?
AFFO of .33 last Q puts RAS at an annual rate of 1.32 (assuming no growth). That puts us at a multiple of 7.75/1.32 = 5.87. I believe the averages for a lot of the solid REITs is around 18. So this could and should go much higher once it builds a track record.
RAS is much farther along the path to recovery. The reported AFFO of .33 last Q and are trading at a multiple of 5.8. And that is after the price has moved up a lot. So I would conclude that the market won't price in a multiple of 11-18 until GKK is rock solid and transparent.
A lot of people were hoping for better light on the dividends starting up. Lack of anything new there is enough to cause a sell off.
17,824,647 of SBY divided by 358,222,420 of two = .0497 shares of SBY for each share of TWO. At the SBY closing price of $19.27 that is worth $.95 per share. I think.