agree. the minute prompt crude drops back a few dollars, these stocks hit air pockets. You have computers buying these stocks every time the price of current crude rises by $0.50. Crazy. no fundamental analysis allowed. things get pretty outback
Beating when you are barely profitable is not quite enough. What is this stock doing up so close to its 12 month high?? Refining earnings will be bad this quarter, and current cracks are poor as well compared to Q2 15. The only positive, is lower Capex, so cash flow is less negative. When oil settles out next year, they will be lucky to make $4/share. So is this now a 25 PE industry??? Sell with both hands.
Yeah. negative cash flow, 2% yield, and the PE is up close to infinity. Easy short here. Up 20% over last bit, while XOM was up only 8%. And Exxon is earnings positive. These people with computers in charge forget to do a reality check every now and again.
i will answer my own question. Its the price of corn. Dammit. Ive wasted so much on calls on waiting for this thing to reverse. all it took was the price of corn. now every stupid money house program says to buy CF when corns goes up. Dah!!
yeah me too. its not like i needed the divvy money. I was only going to use it to pay my health care for the next 4 years til medicare. i probably don't need health care anyway. I can just Obama to pay mine.
people must be watching the dropping price of world wide Urea. I agree its a problem, but CF margins are going to hold up well, with increasing sales volume. The biggest plus this year is a huge write down on the investment, that should take income taxes to near zero, and leave us with a good net income even with the worst possible sales and pricing environment. And one day soon corn and beans prices will start to trend higher, and margins will return to prior levels. I'm adding here. Cant see how it doesn't do way better than S&P over the next 12-18 months.
the capital spend program that is ending was costing about twice the distribution. They should be able to cover the distribution for a few quarters to see how the program pays out. If its a complete bust, then they can cut the distribution and blame it on project vision failures of past CEO. I really hope that is what happens, as the stock price is seems ready for a 50%+ cut.
last conference call said they wanted to take on more debt. stock up on cash, and be able to continue buying back stock.. last purchases averaged $35. share.
does any body else suspect that this is mostly computer generated trading. all the computers are programmed to buy or sell based on instantaneous inventory data, that is not very helpful in the short run.??? i just think the longer term prospects are good for an industry running at 96% of capacity. they should be able to sustain at least decent margins. the stocks last month seemed to act like a few weeks of bearish inventory trends meant the ability to make money over a full year just evaporated. well look at the margin trends. its that way every Feb. and guess what. In April its the reverse. What am i missing?
let me chime in. All those RVs just sitting in my neighbors driveways, with spider webs on them. Im thinking now that gas is virtually free, some of those vehicles might see some action this travel season. It would only take 5-10% demand increase to see some very very good summertime margins on Mogas. its at least a hope for this underwater retiree
if there are earnings, share buybacks increase the earnings per share. this typically results in a ;higher share price down the line. sometimes, its way down the line
they only make 6000 BPD of Diesel there. How can a small or modest diesel margin move the needle on this company? at $10/bbl the profit would be $60K/day. about $5MM a quarter. peanuts. They were hoping for 50$/bbl when they made this investment. Its not there anymore. Saudis took away the punch bowl.