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Fluor Corporation Message Board

earlofsndwich 10 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 16, 2014 4:33 PM Member since: Sep 15, 2012
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  • earlofsndwich earlofsndwich Jun 16, 2014 4:33 PM Flag

    it makes absolutely no sense to me. it always comes back. look at the earnings growth rate. How do these shorts all have time to cover before it comes roaring back?

  • Reply to

    Calls are very cheap on this

    by bighairybutt Jun 12, 2014 9:52 AM
    earlofsndwich earlofsndwich Jun 12, 2014 1:12 PM Flag

    stock was already moving the past months, as Canadian Heavy discount to WTI has come down a lot since last Fall. Better access by rail, means that more consistent pricing vs. world markets which takes the risk of the operating margin falling out of bed at any time. Net margins on heavy crude production out of the Alberta Oil sands on a percentage basis could easily double 2014 vs. 2013 if the global mess adds to the better takeaway options.

    I don't find the options hard to trade. the spread is about normal compared to more heavily traded oil stocks.

  • Reply to

    picked up a few under 29 today early,,

    by harrytcpw May 13, 2014 6:34 PM
    earlofsndwich earlofsndwich May 13, 2014 11:08 PM Flag

    i like the cash flow pattern, up, up, and the dividend is already high, and they keep raising it.

    someday this will be only the second most hated stock on the board.

  • Reply to

    Another Derailed Burning Oil Train

    by g8trgr8t Apr 30, 2014 5:52 PM
    earlofsndwich earlofsndwich May 5, 2014 11:43 AM Flag

    Im a big owner of GATX, and their purchase philosophy is not to buy at the top of the market for growing their lease fleet. So, they are likely not buying any cars now, where they are normally a large purchaser, and more reason for ARI to consume the production line in order to keep production margins at the peak.

  • Reply to

    EIA Weekly Inventory Report

    by mechanica863 Apr 16, 2014 10:32 AM
    earlofsndwich earlofsndwich Apr 16, 2014 11:56 AM Flag

    the industry in moving to a new less volatile margin environment. The opening of a huge backdoor to move out excess clean products for export means, that during periods where inventory would normally build, it just gets exported instead. And that means constant high utilization, and even when more light crude hits the system, or gasoline demand swings seasonally down, they just bump up the exports, and send good margin product out the back door. This should keep US product inventory levels near the bottom of the tanks, and prevent periods of disappearing crack margins. Should let the bankers project more consistent processing margins, which will eventually lift stock PE ratios as confidence builds in continuous income reports. I can see where a VLO, MPC, PSX could trade at a 12-14 multiple rather than sub 10. good time to buy and hold.

  • Reply to

    Well ... well ...

    by benjumck Apr 4, 2014 10:14 AM
    earlofsndwich earlofsndwich Apr 4, 2014 10:22 AM Flag

    Yes, it was just a matter of time. And so glad that I had plenty of time to double down on this long term holding and lock in 7%. What a gift.

    Not even going to complain about my MAR 75 options expiring worthless. water under the bridge.

  • earlofsndwich earlofsndwich Apr 4, 2014 7:30 AM Flag

    Yes i agree, PSX gets a nice piece of the Shale oil/gas/condensate resource as its upgraded to world market priced products. highest merging upgrades are things like plastics, and next highest is lifting 4$/Btu gas up; to $15/BTU minus transportation.

    My other all starts stocks on this same theme are:
    CBI- building new LNG and Petrochem plants
    KMP- moving stuff from A to B for a fixed fee
    HFC- Refining the cheap stuff in place
    CF- making something useful ( food) out of stranded energy

  • Reply to

    What will it take?????

    by scentmaker Mar 26, 2014 10:16 AM
    earlofsndwich earlofsndwich Mar 27, 2014 7:46 AM Flag

    I agree , but Mr. Market always comes around. its maddening to stay patient. But look at that yield. Look at how KMP has underperformed , say VZ in the past year, about 12%. And they pay only 4.5%. I see 20% upside in just the next 12 months.

  • earlofsndwich earlofsndwich Mar 26, 2014 2:54 PM Flag

    You can afford to borrow and add a much of 10% margins business lines to a break even operation and still come out ahead. The combinations add to vertical integration and should provide a more steady margin compared to the roulette wheel of small regional refining.

  • Reply to

    COP- why the selling

    by jmesa Feb 20, 2014 4:08 PM
    earlofsndwich earlofsndwich Feb 21, 2014 12:41 PM Flag

    Why isn't the dramatic price increase in Nat Gas factoring into COP and other large gas producers earnings estimates? For Q1 its going to be a big unexpected plus!

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