yep. and the reason this nevers gets translated into a respectable PE multiple, is that when these blowouts happen they typically vanish. Seasonally, margins crash to negative every winter for a few months., long enough for Wall Street to dismiss the bankability of the earnings flow. Maybe this winter they will just dive and not crash. Maybe slowly we can see PE of double digits. And if so, they TSO goes to 130-150. Hope so. Long with leverage.
And it trades with oil. All the oil shorts have to be covered as well. Is there any doubt Oil will be above $60 in a couple of quarters? And CBI rides both that bounce, the short covering resulting from the accounting nonsense, and the continued positive revenue, gross margin, and backlog increases.
Lots of Catalysts to move the stock up 50%. Nothing but short term trading to take it down.
they haven't pre announced any earnings miss. we are getting down below 10 PE . for a growing stock with world class products, that is very undervalued.
i hope we hear at earnings time, that since we have a better mousetrap, that our market share rise will more than offset the global demand pause. Then we take back the ground we have given up.
this beat down is no worse than CMI, or KMI both of which i own as well. Its an energy/world wide Industrial melt down. Why because global growth expectations have just dropped from 3-4% to nil. Its a big deal. No body can make profit headway without global growth, unless you have a product that is much better than the competition.
they haven't started shutting down for Fall maintenance yet. lots of Spring shutdowns were deferred, so we will see the magnitude of the drop. Both mogas domestic and export demand is way up from last Fall.
they publish an index on their website. shows margin incentives in all three regions, and then quarterly they compare actual capture vs. potential. more precise than any one crude type or crack spread.
they can only barrow 100% of the float. then they have to stop short selling and buy it back. up to 15% already and the stock isn't going down anymore. the turn is near.
Futures markets are projecting a $12/bbl 3-2-1 crack spread for next Jan. That is a whole lot better than last several winters when margins went below operating costs during the slack gasoline demand season.
Ahh, not a very sophisticated analysis here my friend. Im thinking i can still make good money selling corn flakes for less than last year, if the price of my corn drops in half. ? So what is so special about just holding profit constant in a declining feedstock environment?
very light volume ever since we set up this ridiculously low trading range of 42-44. Have to wait another 6 weeks for earnings i guess to move the stock.
what i was able to look up in half a minute, was that last quarter they had 2.2 B$ in operating income and current long term debt is 7 B$. i think this quarter operating income will be closer to 3$ Billion. So debt is not an issue . Where to store all the cash coming in is the issue of the day. So far they have announced more stock buy backs, and interest in purchasing other refining facilities.
and i hold on stubbornly hoping to be proved right largest single holding next is CF which is in similar shape with short attack
Stock price is still 10% below trading from a month ago. In that month VLO product margins were as high as they have ever been. Demand is up, and staying up. LIkely to push on to new highs as the Q3 estimates firm up to some very large numbers.