every story needs a villain. N16, is not the true one. We should be looking at the institutional investors who sold out during the rout. No Nads, have they.
its a 2003 Acura. I don't really care about SLCA, so you can go pound sand for all i care. Im interested in when tracking activity drops off the charts so that tight oil production starts to decline. And the Acura gets really poor milage, ( although prob better than the Peoples Car you drive) so i really care about oil prices.
muscle means the industry is going to drive supplier profits to nil. look for SLCA to try and gain market share but give up almost all of margins. Drive less efficient guys from the game. its OPEC all over again. May emerge 6-8 quarters from now with 80% market share in an expanding market. worth the effort, but not worth holding the stock thru the valley. Pick it up below 10.
they are loaning money to a big Southeastern Utility Co, that is ten times their size in market cap. It seems that company is having trouble get the electric rate commission to let him charge customers for power that isn't yet being produced. When the power boys start paying their bills on time, maybe CBI can pay shareholders a little more of the profit they are working hard to earn for us..
for a $40 stock, anything more than $1/share would get ya a 10 PE. PE in these stocks typically runs around 15. SO, don't sneer at $150MM
yeah, its a nice wave here. Noted that year to date fuel sales in US are up 6/7/8% YOY for mogas/jet/diesel. Local West Coast margins are on fire, figuratively, with both Avon and Torrance out of business. Bought more this week. also look for divvy increase at next opportunity.
refiners have medium term cycles that match nicely with the USGC crack spread, along with the discount of WTI to Brent. This thing with wild swings owning to Crude absolute levels makes little sense, and probably will not be a lasting correlating influence. margins for specialty products made from petroleum have a long history of being more sticky than the price of oil, so tend to expand during crude declines. examples are asphalt, solvents, lube oils. This plays in CLMT favor, as they were shooting themselves in the foot expanding into really small fuels only plants during period of declining WTI/Brent spread, and with declining crack margins. this may bale them out for a quarter or two. hope enough to get profits back above the distribution.
yes, i did expect that. moved most of my holly funds into HEP. Still holding out hope that higher margin specialty refiner CLMT will keep their high payout. But, can't ask for more in div that company is netting from operations.
upstream oil is bigger for FLR. they reported good earnings today and moderately positive guidance . FLR is trading at 12-14 times 2015 expected earnings. CBI is trading at less than 9. We have a long way to run, and this short covering before the report is a good start.
let it stay down a little longer. i like the price my dividends are being reinvested at.
some news on the SO front. The analysts are starting to doubt that there will be any meaningful recovery to them from the construction delays on the NUKE, and Gasification projects.
We will all find out together. The tea leaves that I'm reading are based on the statements of the client. They are signaling that they were presented with a change order and projection of schedule change, that they do not accept responsibility for. They are publicly blaming the contractor/licensor team, and not accepting either the cost overrun, or the loss production time from the completion delay. That is new information , not available at the time of CBI latest projections. SO is suggesting they are protected by a contract for these losses, via liquidated damage provisions for the added costs, delays.
Be assured that my stake in the matter is hugely long CBI, and hoping the tea leaves have been misread.
Well, I'm just guessing, as i haven't read the contract. Although the benefit of the deal as described by the Southern Co CEO sure makes it should like he thinks that he should be compensated for anything but an onetime, on-budget project. But who ( Even Shaw) would sign up for such a thing on a untested new generation Nuke job ??? I can't believe the LDs aren't capped at a level that would have kept the EPC contractor still in business. And somewhere, somehow, CBI should have done the DD to identify the max liability of all the jobs they bought with the buyout, especially the Nuke job. Maybe they were just blind to the details of a Nuke job. Never had anything to do with one.
The charge i want to see, is to identify that the job will have losses compared to the "as-sold" booking, and set up a fund to cover those, and take all the hurt at one time against last year results. That way the nasty details of the loss, as they play out over years, doesn't continue to ruin sentiment on a well run company. stock price is supposed to be about future earnings, not past , onetime screwups.
Toshiba may be on the hook, no way to know. my guess is that to preserve the business arrangement they will find a way to split the charge, with both taking a hit. As to risk reward, i think its a good chance it will come out either great, or way better than stock price has discounted. but it won't happen this year. my best hope is CBI takes a big charge against 2014 earnings, so wall street can concentrate on 2015/16 earnings, and forget about the Nuke mess. Then if the final costs of the schedule delays land in somebody else's lap, they can bring back the money that was set aside for the settlement. That would be way down the road. This won't likely end till the
SO plants come on line in 4-5 years. The potential LD for this could easily be more than a years profit for the balance of CBI operation. Thats a huge overhang, that will keep away even value buyers.
yes, maybe. You may be right. But once the CEO of the client comes out and says that the contractor is not doing what was promised, AND the contractor is not doing enough to mitigate the now expected late schedule, then you have the client saying he is going to war with CBI. Not good. Going to war is a poorer outcome than negotiating a compromise. Going to war requires lawyers, time, and withheld payments. It means a delay in returning to expected positive cash flow. It means that years from now we may get a positive resolution, and a full payment for services. Its a #$%$ shoot. Not how i invest my money for the long term. If i want to gamble, i go the Vegas. I like em both, and know the difference. Just wish id been told the "investment i thought i made to double up on the way down, was really a #$%$ shoot.. Expect CBI will announce a charge against Q4 2014, and hold in reserve against expected claim. Maybe as much as 0.5 B$ lets see in a couple of weeks. I hope I'm dead wrong.