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Suncor Energy Inc. Message Board

earlofsndwich 11 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 28, 2015 11:32 AM Member since: Sep 15, 2012
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  • Reply to

    Rig count down another 24.

    by idccnokia2006 Mar 27, 2015 4:26 PM
    earlofsndwich earlofsndwich Mar 28, 2015 11:32 AM Flag

    US production doesn't have to fall to fix the price problem. it just has to decline to less than the growth in world oil demand . so less than say 0.5 MM B/D per year. We are almost there, and depletion will take us there in months not weeks.

  • Reply to

    Rig count down another 24.

    by idccnokia2006 Mar 27, 2015 4:26 PM
    earlofsndwich earlofsndwich Mar 28, 2015 11:30 AM Flag

    the us rig count means little as this is world wide supply demand balance issue. unlike Nat Gas where the market is geographically limited to NAmerica. Supply from other producing areas will drop as well. eventually.

  • Reply to

    H0PE AND HYPE MAKES VERY THIN SOUP

    by kblab2 Mar 2, 2015 4:38 PM
    earlofsndwich earlofsndwich Mar 3, 2015 2:26 PM Flag

    VLO spreadsheet shows expanding crack spreads, increasing heavy crude discounts, and widening WTI/ Brent spread. Triple whammy. Look for earnings estimates to rise quickly by end of March, and expect we could see better than Q1 2014 earnings results.

  • Reply to

    Today's drop

    by g_squared_57 Mar 2, 2015 10:40 AM
    earlofsndwich earlofsndwich Mar 3, 2015 2:24 PM Flag

    learn not to trust the one day price action on heavy volume days. These stocks will eventually follow fundamentals, and high volume means some stupid computer thinks it spotted something, that is likely transitory.

  • Reply to

    Buy! Buy! Buy!

    by robjohnson12356 Feb 11, 2015 9:28 AM
    earlofsndwich earlofsndwich Mar 3, 2015 2:22 PM Flag

    VLO spread sheet shows crack margins rising to top of cycle levels. West Coast Gas crack( Brent) above $30, with impressive heavy crude discounts as well. WTI discount widening as well, so a triple bonus. Expect lots of Q1 earnings estimate increases going into the end of what should be price madness as we end March.

  • Reply to

    Today's drop

    by g_squared_57 Mar 2, 2015 10:40 AM
    earlofsndwich earlofsndwich Mar 3, 2015 1:48 PM Flag

    VLO weekly spread sheet shows my point. not only has WTI/Brent expanded, but discounts for marker heavy Crudes vs. WTI have widened significantly. Gas and Diesel Crack spreads are at top of cycle highs, and Mogas crack is expanding at about $5/bbl each of last several weeks. West Coast Gas Crack is above $30, and the price on the street keeps moving higher with Torrance KOd.

  • Reply to

    Today's drop

    by g_squared_57 Mar 2, 2015 10:40 AM
    earlofsndwich earlofsndwich Mar 2, 2015 3:57 PM Flag

    the pull back from the fast run up sounds right. But anybody with volume on the West Coast should be getting special attention. Mogas sales in Ca are 1 MM Bbl/day. Prices are $40/bbl above US avg. Thats $40MM./ day of added margin. PSX should get at least 10% of that.

  • Reply to

    Check Out SSL

    by financekid299 Mar 2, 2015 12:20 PM
    earlofsndwich earlofsndwich Mar 2, 2015 3:53 PM Flag

    gas to liquids and , ( worse) coal to liquids are the ultimate high cost energy products. No reason to think that SSL will come out well until oil goes back into shortage. Don't expect any licensing wins either for the Syn technology suite. They have a good project in progress for USGC petrochem, but its years and billions away from completion.

  • Reply to

    Good morning boys spread widened $8 dollars

    by skipaway Feb 13, 2015 7:48 AM
    earlofsndwich earlofsndwich Mar 2, 2015 11:04 AM Flag

    its not just the spread. The crack margin on the forward curve is as high as i can remember. diesel and mogas at $82/bbl, Crude at $51/bbl minus discounts.

  • Reply to

    Just wondering?

    by jzurbruegg Mar 1, 2015 10:46 PM
    earlofsndwich earlofsndwich Mar 2, 2015 11:02 AM Flag

    we are up 25% in past 30 days. that should dispel the doubts about how this story ends. A short program cannot survive that kind of momentum.

  • Reply to

    Still trading with oil

    by gdavis0804 Feb 27, 2015 3:33 PM
    earlofsndwich earlofsndwich Feb 28, 2015 5:01 PM Flag

    lots of good info here, but still failing to highlight the key point. Not only is CBI not levered to oil price, nor to oil drilling, nor land based exploration; rather it IS levered to the price of North America Natural Gas, and NG Liquids. Specifically to the relative price of North Amer nat gas vs. world energy prices. That is the driver that spurs clients to do LNG, and big scale petrochem, pipelines, Gogen Power, and gas plants. It is also reliant on low interest rates to provide funding for large multiyear projects. All of those factors remain in place for now, so no change in award momentum, and no cancelled projects. If anything the slowdown in Fracland may improve the availability of craft labor, and reduce some labor costs on jobs already priced.

SU
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