Unfortunately, I don't think stock prices have memories. The stock was $1.90-1.99 the days before the schedule earnings release. Without the earnings postponement, the stock would have gotten a nice jolt above the $2 range.
Yes, agree that always another person on the other side of the trade. Both positions were above the open interest which indicates new positions.
I guess the key question would be when to catch a falling knife. I don't see much price movement until the next earnings call -- maybe something will happen if they hire a CEO.
Yes, it's a pretty high short interest, but the mid-March numbers need to come in to see how investors reacted post-earnings.
Huh? If you are listening to the TAG target, ARO would be a hold and not a sell (technically).
Regardless, it's hard to forecast a stock price with only a sliver of 2015 guidance and negative earnings.
Btw, ZQK has not released their earnings date yet (since they postponed it). Below is their last press release:
"The Audit Committee plans to review progress regarding its investigation at a previously scheduled regular meeting of the Board of Directors on March 16th, after which the Company anticipates announcing a date for distribution of its first quarter 2015 financial results during March."
MAYBE it will be 3/17, but that would seem like a fast turn around time from the Board meeting.
Really? T Rowe is a decent shop, but nothing spectacular. Have your returns trumped the S&P 500 Index (or applicable index) with your strategy?
lol, good with trading stocks that way. How do you make any money by trading stocks without trying to create a future forecast?
Yeah, it was a relatively simple play as the weather has been horrible. Spring merchandise comes in Jan / Feb and cold weather kills sales from that product. And btw, breaking even only in Q4 is a death-knoll to retailers. If you can't make money in Q4, you are in some serious trouble.
(I'd rather be right with ARO's lousy numbers that a ticker symbol error on a message board. Forest through the trees.)
Huh? SBC has been in all historical projections and any DCF model produced by the analysts. I've been tracking P since Fall of 2013 and SBC always been the major adjustment for actual and adjusted EPS.
Regardless, I'm not an accounting expert and have never had the ambition to be. Here you go:
As of March 2004, the current rule (FAS 123) requires "disclosure but not recognition". This means that options cost estimates must be disclosed as a footnote, but they do not have to be recognized as an expense on the income statement, where they would reduce reported profit (earnings or net income). This means that most companies actually report four earnings per share (EPS) numbers - unless they voluntarily elect to recognize options as hundreds have already done:
On the Income Statement:
1. Basic EPS
2. Diluted EPS
In a Footnote:
1. Pro Forma Basic EPS
2. Pro Forma Diluted EPS
(I'm sure you'll find somehow to say I'm incorrect. oh well.)
Really? The concern should not be the stock price, but what drives any business: its consumers. They need to hire a good crisis management / PR firm and do everything they can to ensure consumers to "trust" them. F' the stock price - it will take care of its self if you don't negative comp and drive revenues.
Have you performed sensitivity analysis on their revenues to find out when they will be hurting for cash? Looks like LL has several levers to pull to conserve cash: no more stock buybacks and pull back on capex spending (opening new locations). Hindsight is 20-20, but the stock buyback seemed to drain the cash a little too tight.
This isn't really a new topic and if you spent any time looking at the financials, it the main difference between actual EPS vs adjusted EPS.
Realistically, options and RSU both hurt EPS performance. One does it as an expense and the other through diluted vs un-diluted share count.
Won't get into the debate about share price or a dividend. We are all wrong on our predictions. If not, we wouldn't be posting on a stupid yahoo message board as we'd be living on an island with cooks and maids.
Yeah, that's precisely why the Fed is structured to be a-political. It's not Obama's policy, but the decision of the board of governors. Get your facts straight buddy and leave the political #$%$ out of trying to hustle for a buck.
While it does have financial implications for me personally, I think the share price will hit the $2.50-$2.75 range next week. It's basically the price ARO was trending in Dec / Jan.
That's a weird comment. Even disregarding the conference call. $2.50 is a much closer number than $5. ARO was trending around the $2.50-$3 price range before the rosy Q4 release in Feb.
Man, I usually skip through the mumbo-jumbo of the merchants, but seriously? "Flirty tomboy" is your target demographic for the female teen consumer. Yikes, if this is their 2nd half strategy - I'd be very afraid.
I regret not buying longer term put contracts.
Not to pile on, but what the heck are you talking about. A broker means exactly that...a broker, not someone that is pilling on investment risk.
(The big online brokers do make a ton of money on commissions though.)
Agree with sthl129. The IV on LL is driving the price on options right now. I'd like to see the stock price float up before dipping my toes in any long put contracts. There is only roughly a $1 difference between the August and Jan $30 puts.
Obviously, wall street insiders knew about 60 minutes story as put options were getting heavy play since Jan. Contracts were getting rolled forward.
Even if you ignore all the noise, the Q4 numbers were not good with negative comps and lower GM%. Can't imagine most consumers / contractors are watching CNBC. The negative press in the normal media sectors are going to hurt their revenues for more than just the short-term.
They need to hire a crisis management team aka Tylenol.