I'm not far off from your number, but I think you are still a bit to low. The Model S 60 does NOT come with Supercharge Ready at the $71,000 price. Its a $2,500 add on.
So I conceed your 20% cost savings for Gen III and a $57,000 base price plus Elons 30% (Roughly $10,000) battery savings thus Getting Gen III at around $47,000.
I will give you a few thousand off because as you point out Gen III won't be as nice as Model S 60 and you are still around $45,000 WITHOUT Supercharging, Tech Package, Upgrades of any kind....
Add Supercharging at $2,500, any basic package or option and the car is quickly back over $50k.
Keep in mind a very nicely equiped BMW 3 Series today is going for $38 - $42k. And for those European buyers the Diesel AWD (34 / 45 mpg) is around $42k. I doubt Gen III could get close to that price in the AWD Version.
I just find it funny that now Jonas is so skeptical about Gen III. I actually think his $60k price is high and think $50+ is more likely. But the bigger more important picture IMO is that even Jonas is now questioning Elon's claim of a $30,XXX Gen III car.
Agreed. Im not "Worried" It's trading money for me, but the stock can be pushed around with hope, hype and fantasy so being short is a bit uncomfortable.
It's just my opinion, but todays report will sink in over time and make people realize the entire thesis for Tesla abov $200 is evaporating.
If I'm wrong.... It's easy come easy go.
Thats what I'm expecting, but must confess the $206 price was a bit uncomfortable.... I added to my short at around $202.
Im hoping we bleed into the close. I don't want to cover this week, but will take my beating if need be.
I'm still betting we break back below $200 and retest some lows over the next few days/weeks
Seriously don't put words into my mouth.. I AM NOT CALLING Elon a Liar. I'm saying he does not have a handle on his assembly line or his logistics.
He is continuing to under estimate how hard it is to get a finished product out. I don't think he is a liar, I just think he is in over his head.
Maybe in your world of investing Guidance is a CEO's Best Guess... But I tend to expect CEO's to guide based on their understanding of Demand and his/hers companies ability to actually execute and fill that demand.
It's not the guidance from 35k to 33K that would worry me if I were long Tesla it's the CEO saying 33,000 in the CC and 5 weeks later in a GQ article stating "We MIGHT do 32,000 to 33,000.
If you want to place your money in the hands of that CEO.....have at it...
I thought that same thing, but I'm counting on the fact that even with MM manipulation they get overwhelmed by people realizing the fantasy of Gen III is disolving. I think they can only push a stock around when there is modest volume and when things are kind of quiet.
Can the Bond Holders convert to shares of stock and then sell...? If I was holding a convertible note paying me 2% on a "Junk" rating I'm not sure I'd want to stick around to see 2015 or 1016......
I'm in disbelief the stock is up 3% today. WOW. I give those longs credit for stepping up in the face of a 40% sales cut by Tesla's No. 1 Bull.
I'm not believing this rally holds, but I guess anything is possible with Tesla.
I added to my PUTS on this rally... I still believe it's a suckers / dead cat bounce.
There you have it longs.... Several of us have been saying for months that Elon has only projected a 30% reduction in battery cost and there is no way he can drive down the price of Gen III to the $35,000 level unless it has a 90 mile range.
So to keep Gen III near the 200 mile range even after spending $5 billion Jonas at Morgan believes the car is still higher than a BMW 3 ($38k - $42k) price.
Yes I do think they care. Tesla also thinks they care because on their web site they use it as their NO. 1 cost savings to artificially make their Lease/Payment $200 lower.
So clearly if the company uses gas savings as their primary justificiation for why a person should pay $80k for their EV instead of a comparible ICE car then it matters.
If you are shopping for a BMW 535 at $60k it's alot easier to justify the Model S $20k higher price if you save $3,000 per year. If you save $500 / year it becomes a bit harder to pull that trigger.
So I do think it matters to a large % of potential Model S buyers. Maybe not every buyer, but it would effect me and I'm in the target demographic for buying that price car.
Excellent comparison Earnest......... The total lack of credibility is painfully obvious now...
The funny part is Jonas keeps Yapping about 2020 and the reality is we are not even sure what Q4 2014 or full year 2015 guidance is likely going to be.
Elon already starting guiding his Q4 number down 5 weeks after they guided down during the CC.
They mush have an Old Wheel of Fortune turn table with a bunch of numbers and just spin it every morning.
Agreed....... I don't have a Friday price prediction, but I'm on board with your overall thesis. The stock is painfully weak and I don't think we have seen the Mini Panic sell momment yet.
It's actually been a fairly orderly retreat. I suppose it's possible for some Out of the Blue broker reaffirm buy recommendation or an Elon tweet, but odds are much greater we start pushing towards $175. Maybe not this week, but this month.
nothing spooks me about holding my Jan./Feb. Puts
I guess there is some limited support in that range, but true support levels seem to be much closer to the $150 price give or take.
Could get ugly quickly....
I still think sub $200 is a bigger deal then most realize. It was the break out point lhis spring and at a minimum will cause lots of not so flattering articles and questioning of EV car sales in 2015. Won't be a very inviting environment to go long with some life saving tweet from Elon.
From a technical view the $200 price was not that meaningful, but this stock trades on emotion as much as anything else.
The Companies Public Press Release....
Mercedes sold ALL their shares.
After Elon said something to the effect that Tesla and Toyota may partner again and the press ran with it, the very next day Toyota released a statement that said "There are no active plans or partnership"
The exact same thing happened with BMW.
Both companies within 1 day tossed cold water on any notion they had any plans to work with Tesla. If there was any truth to even a remote partnership the companies would have said nothing, but instead they felt compelled to make it clear publically they have no active plans or talks with Tesla.
What does that tell you...? I guess a dreamer can fantasize they are working with Tesla "On the Down Low", and hope there is some secret collaboration. But that seems a bit far fetched.
Amazing isnt it..... A CEO effectly guides lower by roughly 1,000 cars via a GQ interview.
Maybe if he spent less time Tweeting and talking to GQ and more time at the factory running the company they could meet their self imposed sales goals....?
Slow down there Mr. n0m0renancy.... Per Elon's GQ interview he has already lowered to 32,000 for 2014. Once again in Elon Speak his EXACT words were...."we MIGHT sell 32-33,000 cars".
50% of 32k is 48K for 2015.
The mighty Tesla Machine strikes again..... with yet further guidance down......
I'm pretty sure Elon said multiple times "We are good with 50,000 Model S as our guidance for 2015"
Maybe they can toss out 5,000 Model X late next year, but that is looking less likely with the recent Tesla Letter to Model X reservation holders.
And lets be painfully honest and admit every brokerage firm pushing Tesla stock recommendation of $325 was banking on 60,000 units in 2015. Whether it's 45,000, 47,000 or 50,000 it's a far cry from the 60k most had hoped for.
I also don't think they can possible be happy with Elon Telling GQ "This Year we might do 32-33,000 cars" just a month after officially projecting 33,000 in the companies Q3 Conference Call. At some point I would think Brokerage Firms get upset and take it personal that he tells them one thing and then a Fluff Magazine something different.
Agreed Prop.... A never ending bleed of money with what now appears as almost a monthly reduction in sales guidance.
What has truely shocked me is how nobody has seriously called Elon out on the fact that Panasonic has only obligated $200M towards a $5 Billion battery factory. Tesla has yet to have any company step up as a partner in any meaningful way.
Toyota, Mercedes, BMW.....All gave a nice "Thanks, but No Thanks" response.
Where is the $4-5 Billion going to come from..?
Well said. The funny part is those of us that have been sending up warning signals for the last several months are the bad guys. Yet Elon over promising and leading the sheep to the slaughter house is viewed as the savior.
What about all those "Professional" brokerage firms pushing the Tesla to $325. Either they are just that incompetent or full blown deceitful...
Lets just make sure we keep the facts straight.
Tesla originally guided to 35k for 2014,
Then lowered to 33k.
As of Late Nov. the CEO stated "this year we might do 32-33,000 cars"
Toss in Gas falling like a rock and it's a wonder $200 is holding up at all. Will be fascinating to see if 2015 guidance holds at 50,000.