That makes no sense.
If a Tesla Store sells ~ 100 a quarter per quarter and cost $200,000 = $2,000/car. Wouldn't it be smarter for Tesla to try and push MORE sales to the store...?
I think it's fair to assume that $200,000 / quarter cost is effectively fixed and flat.
If that same store moved 150 cars / quarter it would be costing Tesla roughly $1,333 per car.
I fail to see how giving $2,000 cash away per sale is better then moving more cars through their existing store front locations..?
Haha Too Funny. I do see your sarcasm and mathematically that is correct.
But it's also mathematically correct to point out
2014 Q4 sales approx. 9,824
2015 Q1 sales approx. 11,160
2015 Q2 sales approx. 11,500
2015 Q3 = (11,000 - 15,000)..?
Target was 55,000 and Elon clearly stated at the end of Q3 2015 that 70,000 would have been totally in play, but he wanted to provide a number he was absolutely sure they could meet.
That is 32,340 they have to deliver in Q3 / Q4...? Does anyone think that happens..? I can't see how yesterdays Cash Incentive is anything but a big red flag for sales in the 2nd half of the year.
There is so much emotion wrapped up in this stock, but the reality is in the last year Tesla has starting selling used cars, produces inventory, created sales lots and now has cash incentives.
It seems hard to keep saying demand is greater then we can handle. They are 1 small step away from running full blown commercials or advertising in a more traditional way. Nothing wrong with all those things, but does it really warrant a $30+ Billion market cap on $5 billion in sales..?
The devil is always in the details. You are very correct about the inefficiency of charging up DC powered batteries from AC, then discharging DC through inverters back to AC for power. Talk about global warming...!!! Has anyone ever felt the heat given off from a 2000W inverter...?
On a similar topic. True "Energy Storage" supporters should google Raccoon Mountain TVA. Near Chattanooga they operate a Pumped Hydro Storage plant that is 80% efficient. Pumps water up to the top of the mountain late at night and releases during high demand.
It's not glamorous, but it gets the job done and doesn't require a Super Genius Billionaire to dream it up.
I'd be very curious to see what Tesla's electrical usage/bill is for all those Super Charge Stations. Lets not forget commercial electrical rates during the day in most states especially CA, OR, WA is likely pretty steep.
Remind me how many are running on Solar Panels...??
I'm sure Tesla has taken the $2,000 upfront SC Fee and set it aside in some magical "Lock Box" of future Electrical Utility cost.........
Those human psychological experiments always suck you in with Free Milk and Cookies..... Next thing you know you're running naked through a maze looking for some cheese.
Interesting to ponder. It's just my personal opinion that $70 is roughly a bottom for DUK and $42 for SO. At that price they are 4.7 - 5.2% Div. paying stocks that have raised dividends for more then 10 consecutive years. A year from now both companies will raise Div. again like they have every year. Will they retest those levels should the 10yr bond rate rally back towards 2.5% or even 2.75%...?
Probable, but remember as long as China and Europe are in a funk foreign money will find safe haven in US Treasuries so even if the FED raises rates it may not mean bond yields go up all that much.
Would you actually sell DUK at $70 giving you a 4.7% cash money return...? Don't forget as the clock ticks towards next summer you can almost guarantee DUK or SO will raise their Div again. So even if the stocks flat line at these prices they will pay you more cash in 2016 then 20115.
Look at how these stocks responded in major market weakness. Unless you think world markets suddenly stabilize I don't see people all that quick to give up cold hard quarterly cash.
Thanks for the heads up. Will check out VGR.
At this point I'm a pure PUT Seller. I take a basket of 5 - 10 companies I really like that pay decent Div and sell puts against them on any major down day. If they get PUT to me so bit it they are a company I wanted to own anyway. If not then I just pocket the PUT money and sell another batch every 2 months or so.
This strategy works well in a Choppy market moving sideways if you sell them on big down days when PUTs get really expensive. If the market starts to rally it might leave me behind, but so far this year that's not the case.
As far as UPS, it feels like Mid 90s is going to hold given the companies overall financials, track record and as you pointed out lower oil has to help even if psychologically to prospective UPS Buyers.
It can't hurt that oil is down, but as you point out the Europe uncertainty likely takes a bigger toll on UPS then any oil benefit.
Just my opinion, but the Europe situation gets worked out while I expect Oil to stay low for quite some time so thus I think any short term drop in UPS will eventually see us rebound back above $100. The reason I think that is it appears to me fundamentally we have high Oil Production going forward so the supply vs. demand ratio is still pointing to added pressure on Oil going down.
I'm selling Aug. $92.5 PUTS on UPS today. $1.40 is to much money. If people are that scared of UPS going down I'll gladly insure their shares for the next 6 weeks and take UPS off their hands at $92.5.
I'm definitely happy TAP has shown some resistance at the $70 level. It's been a rough month, but with the market down 230 and we are unchanged is a good sign.
I agree it feels like today could be a turning point for TAP. I also wonder if the DEO selling off their bear division is fading and helping firm up TAP..? DEO took off a few weeks ago on that rumor, but it's almost totally retraced and makes me wonder if that deal is falling through. If so it could indirectly help TAP..???
Well DaySpa, I'm officially on the side lines with my GPRO trades. I sold June $46, July $47 and July $50 puts roughly 1 - 2 months ago. The $46 & $47 puts made a few bucks and I've covered those trades.
The July $50 was a total push. Sold them for $1.15 last month, bought them back today for $1.15. I wanted to hold until they expired worthless and just keep the money, but the stock as been soooo weak and showing signs of breaking down. Coupled with the overall market schizophrenia, I opted to take the wash trade and walk away with 2 out of 3 as a winner. I don't like the GOPRO action lately. There is no reason for this kind of sell off with little or no news out.
Still holding the call options..?
Adding one more small bit of quick "Home Work".
In the last 10 years DUK's largest stock price drop was from $60 to $40 or 33% during the financial meltdown of 2008. Using History as a guide our current price drop is roughly 22% from $90 to $70. Trying to predict/gauge a worst case scenario would suggest to me a 33% drop from $90 to $60 seems a bit unlikely given the current state of affairs is nowhere near that of 2008.
This is not rocket science here, but I think it's important to try and always have a guideline for what is probable.. Obviously anything is possible,
Given the Div. increase coming and our current 22% pull back I'm expecting a ton of price support in the upper $60s and actually hoping/expecting the $70 price may just barely hold up.
WOW...... 4500 Big Macs, that's a hefty Div. Check......
I'm expecting the 0.015 raise as Dennie mentioned above. At a share price of $70 and annual Div. of $3.24 thats a 4.6% Div. going foward... not bad.
$65 should be a major major support level. It's a 5% div at that price and it's a break out point back in 2013. I guess anything is possible, but it's hard to see why a 2.4% yield on the 10 Yr Bond is attractive enough to coax people into selling their 4.6% Div on DUK??? I just don't get it.
I've been selling Aug. $70 Puts. If someone wants to give me $2 today as "Insurance" to buy their DUK in Aug. at $70 so be it.
A cost basis of $68 I can live with and just ride it out.
I think that is exactly what is taking a bigger toll on SO vs. DUK, ED, PCG, etc.
If you look at SO's debt to equity and their Quick Ratio it's well behind the others. It's not so much that a 10 yr yield is that appealing vs. a 5% div, but rather the utilities ability to finance forward projects.
SO just compounds that fear with the recent Vogtle headache.
GOOG may counter and add in some Bagels.
Lately you no longer sound so "Anti" GPRO...? Change of heart or just dislike Citron more then GPRO...?
You should come sell some puts with me.....;)
$500M cash, Zero Debt.
2015 eps of roughly $1.7. $55 / $1.7 = 32.3 P/E Forward for 2015
2015 Rev. growth is projected to be 35%
Earnings Growth is projected to be 41%
At $50/share = 2015 P/E of 29
At $60 the P/E = 35
The pros to owning GPro is Google Partner, recently added by Cost Co (80M customer base), Asian growth and overall Name Recognition. Not to mention they crushed Q1 and guided much higher for Q2
The Cons, China Competition, Risk of over exposure and ability to monetize outside of just hardware.
I'm betting that $55 +/- $5 is where we trade from now until next earnings baring an unforeseen news event out of left field.
WOW, check out the AMBA volume. 13M shares so far with only 31M outstanding. Could easily trade 20M today. That is some crazy turn over.
I think todays sell off is clearly largely AMBA related, but could also see some GPRO holders nervous about Q3 guidance during the Q2 call in early Aug.. Q1/Q2 numbers have been great, but a little caution is not a bad thing.
Will be interesting if AMBA slows down now that it's under $100. Morgan Stanley's target is $100 so I'd expect some buying in the $90s.
At these prices and this time I've become neutral on GPRO.
I did not buy GPRO, but did sell $46, $47 and $50 June/July Puts. So we both have a similar view of GPRO in that we think $50 give or take is a good price for the time being.
Notice I SOLD June/July Puts because they will expire prior to their Earnings announcement in early Aug.. I did not want to be exposed as a Put writer over their earnings.
If I owned GPRO at $50, I would consider buying very short duration puts maybe an Aug. $55 later this month that would give you some protection in case Q2 is a disappointment. I rarely recommend buying PUTS, but if you have an $8 - $10 gain spending $1.0 to protect or lock in a $5 gain might be advisable if you are worried.
I slightly more sophisticated trade would be to sell an Oct. $65 call option for $3.70/share and use the money to Buy and Oct. $52.5 put for $3.70. Your net cost is Zero, but you lock in a price of $52.5 no matter what happens between now and Oct.. But you also lock in a max gain of $65.
You could do the same trade and tighten up the range by selling a $62.5 call and selling a $55 put as a "Wash" trade. Again it caps your max gain to $62.5, but gives you an out at $55.
1st I'm not buying that a guy who endlessly rips GPRO bought calls, but whatever. as I told DaySpaSue......Maybe Gilhuly told himself if he every made it he would buy a big boat, nice house his parents a place on Martha's Vinyard, his brother a Bentley, etc. Maybe he had an uncle die young and never enjoyed his wealth who knows. But the reality is he has sold 25% of his holding so far. 1 million of 4 million shares.
I'd do the same and not blink. I wouldn't get all wrapped up if I got $50, $60 or whatever. I'd what till $100 and let another 1 million shares go.
Woodman seems goofy and not mature enough to run a business plus other companies make much better cameras. Just keep saying all that over and over....
$500m cash, 0 debt, beat Q1 by 30 or 40% (some outrageous # I can't recall now) and raised by an equally crazy amount. Did you really think the "short" play would keep working. Did you see the Asian growth rate or Internet GoPro youtube playback percentages?
This isn't Solar City or Tesla burning $500m a quarter and losing ever more money on a weekly basis. GPRO actually turns a profit which is steadily growing even with large over seas sales while other companies say the strong dollar is hurting their bottom line. No such excuses from Woodman
That is also what gets me with the Shorts on this stock.
I totally get that speculative "High Flyers" can be over valued at times and GoPro clearly has risk moving forward. But this idea that a company that is all Cash, Zero Debt, crushed Q1 earnings and raised Q2 dramatically is some how worthy of shorting is crazy.
I've said it many times. GPRO is on schedule to earn 1.75 eps this year. at $56 that's roughly a P/E of 30 for a company growing better then 30% and no debt is NOT overvalued.