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Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc. Message Board

eckgar1 50 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 30, 2015 5:25 PM Member since: Apr 4, 2013
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  • eckgar1 eckgar1 Apr 30, 2015 5:25 PM Flag

    CURRENT PE IS 8.75 off Q1 results. Insanely LOW!

  • Guess at Q2:
    Q2 HCV = $3.44 billion / $3.18 eps / revenue $8.28 billion / Trx 150,000/ $4.84 billion other / 38.5%

    at P/E 8.75 current!
    Share price target for Quarter 2= $112 - $118

    at P/E 10
    share price target for Quarter 2= $127 - $130

    $23,000 per traceable TRX Q2 2015 Guess.

    Gilead Science Shareholders

  • If the U.S. unemployment rate were to reach 10 percent in 2016 and the economy were to contract by 4.5 percent, the companies would need $68.6 billion to $157.3 billion, depending on how tax assets are treated in the accounting, the tests found. A similar test performed a year ago projected they would need as much as $190 billion in a severe downturn.
    15% less needed from 2014 to 2015!
    So in 2 years or less they would only need 157-66, less than half!
    $66b would be easy to do if the Treasury would return the extra money it TOOK, ABOUT $60b!

  • $200 billion in cash would have to be returned to Fannie Mae if the third is removed.
    Fannie only owes about $117 billion to treasury, could $200 billion pay $117 billion off? of course it can!!
    but why? pay the dividend or refinance at 5% from else where and keep the cash!
    Do you think it would be hard for Fannie to borrow 117 billion from other methods? Fannie does it everyday! its not that hard, They have over $3 trillion in assets to borrow against!
    $3000 billion needs $117 billion seems very likely they would get the loan from elsewhere!
    Maybe RUSSIA would offer better terms than the US TREASURY! Im sure they would! The US TREASURY is taking 100%, could russia really do worse? The same YES, but worse? I DOUBT IT! I guess in Russia they would take 100% and through the shareholders in jail too. God bless the USA!

    This equates to $166 a share in cash value.

    Dont believe the #$%$ that you hear, LOOK at the TRUTH.

  • Reply to


    by eckgar1 Apr 27, 2015 1:33 PM
    eckgar1 eckgar1 Apr 27, 2015 1:34 PM Flag

    on Fanniemaeshareholders blog

  • Reply to


    by eckgar1 Apr 27, 2015 1:33 PM
    eckgar1 eckgar1 Apr 27, 2015 1:34 PM Flag

    The two twins would have $240 billion plus interest owed to them! This would amount to just short of $300 billion, The GSE's could simply invest the $300 billion at 6% interest and pay the interest due to the treasury every year FOREVER!

    What would this do to the stock price of Fannie Mae? Of the $300 billion Fannie would get about $200 billion of it, Fannie SPSA has $117 billion it would have to pay $11.7 billion to treasury on each year, But it would have $200 billion in cash which would transfer to its market cap! There are 1.2 billion shares outstanding. This equates to $166 a share in cash value.

    Its only through the conservatorship that Fannie and Freddie are being held back from being the greatest american corporations on the planet!

    The TRUTH is right in front of our eyes, and all we do is listen to the lie!
    Time has come to look with our eyes wide open at the truth, and quit being deceived by the lie they are telling us!

    Fannie Mae vs the US Treasury:

    Fannie is 100% shareholder owned
    Fannie is 0% taxpayer owned, and 0% US Treasury owned.
    Fannie and Freddie booked losses of $186 billion, under FHFA leadership.
    Fannie and Freddie repaid the booked losses to Treasury of $240 billion.
    The booked losses were not REAL losses, only accounting losses.
    This allowed for the reverse of the losses in 2013-2014!
    If the money borrowed was not REAL, and the LOSSES were not REAL, Would it not seem the money paid back on those LOSSES were not real!

    To simplify, YOU borrow ME $188 dollars, I put that in my pocket and book a loss of $188 dollars, never counting the $188 you gave me, Later I Pay you back YOUR $188 dollars from my pocket where I put it!
    Also during this time YOU sue the Banks for the LOSS money on my behalf, You win every one of them, I transfer all the WON money to YOU as was agreed on since YOU took the losses, NOT ME.
    Now here we are and I gave you your money back, I gave you the lawsuit money, and the reality comes to show you I never needed your $188! It really is that simple.

    Fannie and Freddie were never lacking funds and were never near insolvent, Just as I show YOU above!

    The Treasury cannot simply remove the 3rd amendment sweep and go back to collecting 10% on the $188!
    First, Fannie would be due 10% interest over the last 2 years since the sweep, just as the Treasury was due 10% before the sweep, equal accounting. This would eliminate the 10% dividend over the last 2 years, leaving the $188 billion at equal value from the adoption of the sweep.
    Returning the $240 would be not enough, Just as the $188 would still collect interest so would the $240 to Fannie and Freddie! If the 3rd amendment were removed the $240 plus interest would have to be returned to fannie and freddie! The question is would Fannie and Freddie have to keep paying the $18 billion a year to Treasury under the SPSA? does it matter? The two twins would have $240 billion plus in

  • eckgar1 eckgar1 Mar 20, 2015 11:40 AM Flag

    * The assets of Fannie and Freddie will be returned to the private sector and may operate within the new mortgage system as issuers and/or aggregators
    *Fannie and Freddie’s multifamily business will be spun out as separate entities
    Seperate entities! They cant spin off what they dont own, So those entities will be shareholders of current corps!
    * The current multifamily businesses of Fannie and Freddie will continue to function within the new multifamily housing market as purely private organizations
    Continue to function within the new housing market!
    Key lines!
    The talk on the Hill is changing rapidly from shutter to Recapitalize!
    The fact that FHFA has let the two pay less in profit to Treasury in Q1 2015 is all part of the game. I guarantee it was decided to show less profits starting in 2015 to push the need to prevent another bailout. Bailouts are over. No one wants a bailout in 2015, this is not 2008!
    Its all accounting Folks! Fannie is profitable! Very!
    even at 1 billion per quarter after taxes, your looking at $4 billion a year
    with a pe of 10 your staring at a $35 dollar stock. I suspect the profits are more in the $2 billion a quarter range! $70 dollar stock. Again its all accounting, FHFA accounting directed onto Fannie Mae!

  • eckgar1 eckgar1 Mar 20, 2015 11:40 AM Flag

    with an explicit government guarantee provided by Ginnie Mae and a private sector reinsurer.
    Shareholders are still owners of these Spin-offs. (my comment)

  • Delaney, Carney & Himes File Housing Finance Reform Legislation to Protect 30-Year Mortgage & Taxpayers

    2015 is sounding different from "shutter"
    The bill winds down Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and allows them to be sold and recapitalized.

    Small Lender Access

    * During the transition Fannie and Freddie may remain as aggregators of mortgage loans for small lenders that do not have the sufficient volume to pool and create these new securities with their mortgage loans on their own, so long as adequate private sector alternatives do not exist

    Winding Down Fannie and Freddie

    * Fannie and Freddie will be wound down over a five year period. Their government guarantee and charter will be removed and they will repay the government with interest for the government's investment in the institutions. The repayment must take into account both the injection of capital and overall exposure to the government. THIS IS DONE ALREADY $90 billion profit now to taxpayers!

    * During the transition, Fannie and Freddie may act as an aggregator for small lenders to retain small lender access to the new Ginnie Platform.

    * The transition will continue until competitive access for small lenders is established and Ginnie has achieved an adequate return to taxpayers and established a competitive private housing finance market.

    * The assets of Fannie and Freddie will be returned to the private sector and may operate within the new mortgage system as issuers and/or aggregators

    Multifamily Housing

    * Fannie and Freddie's multifamily business will be spun out as separate entities. Ginnie will be required to create and implement a workable multifamily guarantee that utilizes private sector pricing consistent with the single family model.

    * The current multifamily businesses of Fannie and Freddie will continue to function within the new multifamily housing market as purely private orga

  • In addition to targeting the Dodd-Frank law, Tuesday's plan also calls for privatizing housing finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which were both seized by the government in 2008 after they nearly collapsed beneath the weight of bad loans.

    "As long as they continue to enjoy federal support, taxpayers remain exposed to more than $5 trillion of outstanding commitments belonging to the firms," the plan says.

  • Reply to

    For Crying Out Loud

    by stockgremlins Mar 11, 2015 8:39 PM
    eckgar1 eckgar1 Mar 12, 2015 11:14 AM Flag

    I like it, except your neighbor was not going to have any trouble paying his payment, yet you took his car and money forever anyway since you have the LAW on your side. You then USE his car to save everyone else from losing their car too, the other cars belong to the banks. If those cars go under, your banks all close!
    so you use his money and car as a way to make sure the banks dont go under. You decide all this on your own and dont care what your neighbor thinks or cares about the deal, since your the LAW.
    You just take what you want. Taking in LAW sake is unconstitutional. 5th amendment of USA.

  • eckgar1 eckgar1 Mar 10, 2015 10:39 PM Flag

    Freddie: 2014 Q3

    Deferred Tax Assets and Liabilities
    We had a net deferred tax asset of $ 18.5 billion and $ 22.7 billion as of September 30, 2014 and December 31, 2013 , respectively.
    We determined that a valuation allowance against our net deferred tax asset was not necessary at September 30, 2014 . See "NOTE 12: INCOME TAXES" in our 2013 Annual Report for additional information.
    Fannie: 2014 Q3

    Deferred tax assets, net 42,757

    So for the record,
    Freddie has $18.5 billion in DTA left,
    Fannie has $42.7 billion in DTA left.

  • eckgar1 eckgar1 Mar 10, 2015 10:38 PM Flag

    Fannie and Freddie both have huge DTA's still, they will never have to draw from treasury again! over 60 billion in DTA left at the two!

  • 1. Conservator has power to wind up fannie mae. NO
    2. HERA allows FHFA to give treasury all the profits. NO
    3. Shareholder have no rights. NOT true, we have constitutional rights above HERA. 5th amendment.

    Only if fannie is a limited-life entity! It is not!
    Only way to be a limited life entity is if RECEIVER! The DOJ will tell you FHFA is conservator NOT receiver.
    Only if in Recivership can FHFA Wind up begin.
    HERA does not allow for Treasury to tell FHFA to give all profits of regulated entity to Treasury.
    Both Receiver and Conservator are REQUIRED to preserve and conserve the assets and property of the regulated entity, There is no preserving or conserving in giving 100% profits to Treasury!

    on blog google:

  • eckgar1 eckgar1 Mar 9, 2015 5:57 PM Flag

    real number $800 billion dollars worldwide, in developed countries.

  • eckgar1 eckgar1 Mar 9, 2015 5:57 PM Flag

    $40,000 x 16 million people = $640,000,000,000
    $640 billion dollars
    more likely is
    13 billion a year for a long, long time.

    130–150 million people globally have chronic hepatitis C infection
    if only 10% of those pay $40k, that will be a whole lot of money.

    According to the CDC, in 2009, there were about 16,000 reported cases of acute HCV. Approximately 3.2 million people in the United States are living with chronic HCV.

    worldwide, 350,000–500,000 people die from HCV-related complications each year.

    In September 2014, we signed licensing agreements with seven Indian-based generic pharmaceutical companies to expand access to our HCV medicines. The 91 developing countries covered in the agreements account for around 54 percent of the total global infected population, that is, over 100 million people.

    50-80 million live in developed countries with HCV.

    real numbers:
    $20,000 x 40 million people = $800,000,000,000
    $800 billion dollars Gild share of the pie, giving 20-40% of the develpoed world pie away to others
    ABBV and the like.

  • the treasury is the benefactor of the sweep! what would you expect them to say? We dont want the money and we were wrong? LOL I dont see this as news!

  • Reply to

    gileadshareholder blog

    by eckgar1 Mar 1, 2015 9:20 PM
    eckgar1 eckgar1 Mar 4, 2015 7:38 AM Flag

    i dont have that data, I was using IMS all along. I gave up on IMS.
    One thing is sure Symphony has always been lower numbers, so Id say they are worst case.
    this is good for the projections going forward as the ims numbers are probably higher.

  • Reply to

    Treasury Fraud found all over google!

    by eckgar1 Mar 3, 2015 9:17 PM
    eckgar1 eckgar1 Mar 4, 2015 7:35 AM Flag

    bump to top

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