I am very critical of Faupel as the former CEO of GTHP. His regime was full of sky high expectations are very poor results. You might even claim that Faupel commentary during the last few years was border line fraud. Personally, I think the guy is a hopeless optimist and did not how to manage expectations (including his own). The CEO role was obviously not for him. We were full of hope with Gene Cartwright. However, now Gene is exactly following the steps of Faupel. He over promised and under delivered with the FDA refiling timing. On May 14 on a press release Gene claimed GTHP will refile WITHIN 45 days after the face to face meeting with the FDA (end of June). During two conferences Gene said to expect FDA refiling by the end of June again and again. Of course, as of July 18 GTHP has not refiled. After they missed their own deadline, we were told end of July.... is GTHP culture to over promise and under deliver again and again? Will they even refile by the end of July? Can we trust this mgmt team?
At the end of the day, I think FDA approval is the most meaningful event for GTHP. We can crawl higher as sales grow but FDA approval is going to radically change the landscape for this company. We will be able raise capital in a cost effective way and it also adds to the credibility of the product making international sales to grow faster. Right now the company needs to narrow guidance. Guidance of $1mm to $3mm is a too wide. I am hoping for sales to exceed $500K in Q2. Maybe GTHP surprises me with a print above $1mm and then we have something. Tell GC to buy GTHP stock.... it will really help credibility.
That is simply not true and you know better. FDA adds a huge amount of credibility for Luviva. Nevermind how it would help the company get additional financing at attractive cost of capital. FDA approval is extremely important. You know better.... there is no way you can be this naive.
Wawallace wrote a great post about GTHP's valuation. My parameters to evaluate the fair market value of GTHP are slightly different. Using Wawallace's strict valuation he reaches a value of $1.25-$1.50 (if I remember correctly). Relaxing the cost of capital from 15% to 12.5% and slightly changing capital need requirements, I reach a valuation of $1.75. Either way, if GTHP gets FDA approval, which is likely in my opinion, the stock is worth between $1.25-$1.75 using conservative assumptions.
From my perspective, the chances of approval of GTHP are at least 80%. Luviva already has approval abroad. We know the technology works. Mark Faupel fumbled the FDA submission last year, but now GC is in charge. It is getting done right and I place the chances of approval close to 90%.
However, the market is now assuming the chances of approval, based on the current stock price, is less than 36%. The stock is dirt cheap. Why? Because we lack credibility. You can blame Mark. However, a good quarter can change the sentiment. I am hoping insiders lead the market and show that current prices are a bargain. That will be step 1 in the recovery of the price. We should have good news from the Medical Conference next week and the refiling of the FDA submission in June which can build visibility and volume. Would be nice to build some momentum heading to Q2 results.
Because the management team and the board have no credibility. I am sorry but it is that simple. Faupel over promised and under delivered so many times no one believes these guys. Faupel was only demoted to Scientific Officer, instead of getting fired for the absolutely horrible job he did as CEO. Many people in Wall St. Believe his "estimates" were border line fraud. It was Faupel that said, about this time last year, that GTHP would be at break even by now.!!!. Last month they had to borrow $3mm and they will need additional funding by October. More importantly, they have failed to get approval from the FDA twice. Eventually people give up. I bought in Dec/Jan because I believe in the product, Luviva. However this mgmt team and board are so toxic no one is willing to invest until they have prove (FDA approval or significant international sales). Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. I believe a poster said it best. The operation was a success (Luviva), but the patient died (GTHP stock). You want change? Maybe insiders should stop selling at 50 cents between conferences. Again, actions are more important the words especially from these guys. Check out insider buys and sales for the last 3 years. Do you see anyone buying in the open market? We need a huge quarter or Gene Cartwright actually buying shares like us. Did you see any action from Gene regarding the e-mail you sent? Of course not. Again..... Words but no action. The GTHP way.
Good question and very hard to estimate. Please remember in Q2 we added to debt. In addition, we will need additional funds @ October unless we complete a strategic partnership. Anyhow, I think GTHP stock without FDA approval is worthless. Why? because international sales are growing so slowly that without FDA approval your cost of funds will be so high that the stock will suffer massive dilution.
We need a bold move by Gene Cartwright. I am in the camp that we need a strong partner to accelerate growth and resolve our capital needs. Let a strong partner (GE, Siemens, Abbott, etc....) own 10-20 percent of GTHP. Use the proceeds to pay the debt and to get us to cash flow break even. The new partner will accelerate the process. The stock is stuck in the 45 cents to 50 cents range. International sales are growing very slowly. Refiling already delayed another 30 days... Can they get it done this month? I just do not know anymore. I hope Gene can concentrate on making the pie bigger. We are slowly giving it away with all these financings that are basically keeping the stock depressed below 50 cents. So how about a strategic partnership? and yes..... get the refilling done this month.
This seller is relentless. Sold 5 blocks of 50K shares each last week taking advantage of the Mexico news to dispose of shares @ 48.99 cents. This week he moved to 48 cents and now still trying to dispose of shares. Now he is at 47.8 cents. This guy is selling on any strength. Just relentless and disciplined. We need Cartwright to complete the refiling for this cycle to end.... if we have another week of this, I am afraid a test of 45 cents is likely.
New people to GTHP might find this valuable.
The very first thing I would like to state, for the record, is that I have knowingly entered into this operation as a speculation. As such, even though I use mathematics to explain my thesis, it is important to remember that having a good process does not necessarily guarantee good results, especially in the realm of speculation, in which success is exceedingly difficult.
I don't like to evaluate how much cash I can convert my stocks into without some sort of reference point. Since we have no tangible reference point here, like earnings, book value, or even significant cash flow, I'm going to convert this into a probability exercise using some fairly conservative reference numbers to gauge proportion and impact.
Let establish the base case, in which 10 years from now Guided is successful, they have gained FDA approval, and they developed their pipeline and are shining light into every orifice of the human body to detect cancer. Is it a huge stretch of the imagination to say that this would be a $1 Billion company? I don't think it is.
Now let's remember that they need capital, and have said that number will be somewhere in the $8,000,000 range. I'm going to double that number and assume that they never get any more than were the stock stands today, and use a share total of 100 million, since it's a nice round number, it is realistic and it provides a margin of safety.
Get out your financial calculator. $1 Billion, 10 years from today, discounted at a 15% return is about $250 million today. I use 15% because these guys are squirrely, and I can't trust them the same way I do Warren Buffett. Maybe I would loan my precious capital to Warren at 10%, but not these guys. Based on 100 million shares that puts the maximum fair value assuming that these guys eat rainbows and defecate ice cream at $2.50 per share.
"Now wait a minute" you say, "That is a price for perfection, and we're not dealing with perfection here: what if these guys blow it"? Very good observation. Let's now invert and calculate the implied probability of success based on the current price. $.50 is 20% of $2.50, our maximum current conservative value, and as such that means the market is screaming at you that there is an 80% chance that these guys fail.
Well I'll take that bet folks. I think they've got a least a 50/50 shot, and that means that this stock is worth $1.25 in my hands, and it accrues a little value everyday based on my target of being fully operational and in multiple product lines 10 years from today.
I could care less what path the squiggly lines make between then and now as long as I continue to get this much implied value.
All your disasters, and scams, and earthquakes and wars with Russia are baked into that 80% probability of failure. When I speculate, I bet on the horse and let the race run. I don't check in at the window every 2 legs because the probability has shifted from 80% to 82%. And I most certainly don't let other people, who have spent far less time calculating the present value, tell me with their panic that my numbers are wrong.
I believe that is the highlight of the report. It seems we are finally gaining traction in international sales. Refiling in 45 days and FDA end of year / early 2015. I have to think the stock finally creeps higher.
At least we know that we will have the quarterly CC Thursday. At that time, Cartwright will let me know if he is the right CEO. If he is as good as many think in this board think, then GTHP will report awful Q1 earnings the same day they refile with the FDA. You put aside the horrible past and make people think about the future. It would be a brilliant move. It would be a welcome sign that grown ups are back in charge. Let's hope for the best.
Only issue in the release was GTHP mentioning the possibility of needing to raise more cash after Q3. Hoping for collaboration money and no additional loans.
Nevermind..... insiders used the move to sale. Ronald Hart is now a seller of GTHP.
Expect a response @ Dec 15, 2015 to Jan 31, 2015. Unfortunately, the FDA tends to exceed the "deadline". It is more a timeframe that usually exceeds the 180 days. It is unfortunate but it usually the case. I know it is frustrating. If they refile in June I think it is safe to safe Dec 2014 / Jan 2015 FDA approval, and yes I think it it will finally get approval. I thought the report was bad as expected but sales guidance was a positive. Talking about having money until third quarter of 2014 was the offset. We need collaborations to expand international sales.
1. You make it sound like I bet the farm. I only have 120,000 shares. Considering the share price I do not believe my position is that large.
2. I purchased by shares in Dec-Jan at the average cost of 47.8 cents. Not interested in selling at these levels. I rode the stock all the way to 62 cents and back to 46 cents. It is dead money until FDA.
3. You have the most insane schemes. If someone is willing to buy my shares I just get a stock certificate and endorse the certificate to the seller.
Anyhow another day another ugly day for GTHP. I was hoping for the stock to creep higher not lower after earnings. Hopefully they will refile soon and we can start the 180 days count down soon.
44 cents. This is depressing. Why will people sale at these levels? Not sure what I am missing.
Please do some DD before posting. GTHP is refiling with the FDA before the end of June 2014 after face to face meeting May 8th. We expect FDA approval in the Dec/Jan timeframe. Most the gains in GTHP will be driven by FDA approval. However, possible short term catalysts include:
1. Insider buying after quarterly report.
2. Refiling to FDA. Nothing new but it starts the 180 days count down with FDA for approval.
3. Q2 Results @ August 15. We might finally see a ramp up in international sales.
Either way GTHP is not fast money but there is a possibility of the stock trading @$1 after August 15 if international sales ramp up significantly. However, we will not see real price appreciation until FDA approval by year end or early 2015. In the meantime, let's hope for GTHP to refile with FDA sooner rather than later.