I hope you are correct. My experience with GTHP is that they wait until the last minute and then add 30 days. Maybe I am just too bullish and/or wrong on Luviva but the market keeps selling the stock. Frustrating.
Okay. And one more question about the financing. If you can say, do you anticipate that – you’ll be able to raise the money all at once or do you think it’ll happen sort of in pieces over the next year?
That’s a good question. We are debating that right now. Certainly, their advantages are raising it all at once. It certainly freezes ourselves to focus more in the business and support. But, at the same time, we believe that our stock price is going to go up based on our international sales, and hopefully what response we get from the FDA. And in that case, we potentially raise less, the certain amount of money now at the current stock price and potentially more as the stock price goes up. But, we haven’t made a final decision on that, but that’s the thought process we are going through.
After listening to the CC and understanding the market opportunity for Luviva, I really think this stock should be trading much higher than 43-44 cents. However, like it or not we have a dead stock until the financing is completed @ October. Maybe after the financing is completed, we will see the stock moving higher in Nov-Dec in anticipation of FDA approval. In summary, we are looking at 40 cents as the bottom of the range and 50 cents as the top. Frustrating because I wish they would do a joint venture (and they can but want to wait for FDA approval IMHO) to eliminate all future cash needs. While reducing some of the upside potential, I personally wish to eliminate the risk and see the stock starting to move in the right direction. On the other hand, I do not think they will have any problem getting financing but the market OBVIOUSLY wants to see the deal before they buy. So dead money for 2 more months. We do not have any catalyst to takes us higher but the stock is cheap.
My take is that they do another 6 months of bridge financing and a secondary after FDA approval. IMHO the situation is not as bad as you might think. How about the possibility of one of these countries investing in GTHP?
Cyto, I think you are wrong about the vampire financing. They can get another bridge loan for about the same cost as the first loan. No vampire financing is needed. IMHO the company wants (to my frustration) to get FDA approval BEFORE doing a JV. Personally, I would gladly give some upside for safety. I just do not think the choices are as bad as you portrait. Just my opinion. We do agree it is a FDA play. I think you are going to be pleasantly surprised that capital is available to GTHP this fall. However, if the FDA does not approve Luviva this time around the company is in trouble.
Expectations were low and they were reached. Comment about ramping hiring sends a positive tone. The stock is oversold and very cheap. Financing will be similar to the previous deal. Access to capital @ the cost of the last financing is not an issue in Oct time frame. With the PMA submitted, I think the stock should be bought.
Financing. They raised enough cash until October instead of getting enough capital until FDA approval in early 2015. Maybe they were hoping for approval in October? I agree with your odds. I do not think financing will be toxic. I expect another bridge loan until they can get FDA approval. Maybe it does not go to a panel review? Not saying it is likely but would explain making the bridge loan only until October instead of Q1 2015. Just a thought from left field.
What are the chances of Luviva getting approval @ October? I know is is unlikely but is it possible for Luviva to get approval without going to a committee or a panel vote? Thx for the info.
Probably another loan. Bridge financing until FDA approval. Something similar to the previous loan. It is possible, although very unlikely, that GTHP gets approval In October and it completely chances the landscape. Look this is a high risk / high reward proposition. I am too heavy for my taste but I think Luviva gets approved.
I have 140K shares. Added 20K last few days. I am just convinced they are getting approval. It can easily test 40 cents. I do not want to buy more. I wish I had waited a bit. It is a FDA play. FDA is do or die. The financial ramifications from not get approval would be vast as cost of capital would be extremely high. With approval the stock IMHO can go to $3-$3.50 1-3 months after approval. I do believe the product will be approved. Scary ride but every indication I have is that they will get approval. Obviously the market does not believe GTHP is going to make it. At this point I am hanging to hear if FDA approves or not. I am either going to lose 80% of my investment or will be a home run. Binary event. I think it tells you how much I believe in the product. I hope I am right.
Tonoos I added to my position but I might be early. I have a fairly large position but my cost position is slightly above 46 cents after adding at recent low levels last 3 trading days. I believe in Luviva. The stock is a mess. Sea talking about adding at 35 cents? I think they get FDA approval so I am going to suffer thru this. Not sure what else to do.
I am very long and very wrong GTHP. Initial buys were at an average price of 47.5 cents in Dec 13 / Jan 14. I added recently but I am looking foolish. I am waiting to see the report Aug 13th. At this point I am waiting for the FDA decision.... but I lost almost all hope. The product is great but the stock is a nightmare getting worse each day.
I hate to agree but you are right. Mexico, New patents, PMA re-filing.... Someone is using strength to sale as much as they can..... they sold to me today at 46.9 cents.
Eventually we run out of excuses for why the stock is behaving this poorly. It does not matter what the news is, the stock is sold on any strength. I am relieved the PMA is done. Let's see what Cartwright says @ Aug 15th.
I bought some more too.... Are we the only ones? I added at 46.9 cents. Shock I got filled. I was thinking relief rally to 50 cents. Are we dead money until the capital infusion in October? I do not have a clue anymore.
I will admit I am surprised by the reaction after the PMA filing. I bought a little more at 46.9 cents. Maybe you are right. The only thing I can think is the additional capital needed in Q4. Very long and very wrong so far. There are no buyers today (other than me unfortunately).
That is Ok! Let's hope for higher sales guidance or at least something more narrow than $1mm to $3mm. That is almost as wide as Nicki Minaj's rear end.