FDA resources were diverted because of the "super bug" in February. The FDA is back on track and I suspect we will get a decision before the end of March. More importantly, I believe we are finally making strides with the order from Kenya. The Kenyan gov't will have to post the bid for Luviva and disposals for 10 business days before they give GTHP the order (PO). Hoping for the posting to occur next week. Maybe, just maybe, Cartwright is getting close to that elusive order after fumbling again and again (not a big fan of Gene "Any Day Now" Cartwright). Mexico and Bangladesh are expected in Q2 2015. Mexico more likely than Bangladesh. I hope we are finally going to start closing on these orders.
This is the first time in a long time I actually see the possibility for GTHP to bounce back. Hopefully we will see the gov't of kenya publish the tender for a bid for Luviva sooner rather than later.... Then we just need to count the days for the PO. A large order of approx $3mm would change the sentiment on GTHP dramatically. My biggest concern is Gene "Any Day Now" Cartwright. I think he is awful as a CEO.
Look ar A/R. You are an accountant. Define revenue to me? Do you consider revenue if you ship Luviva machines but NEVER collect. What are the payment terms for GTHP? Whenever the country that bought it feels like paying for the machines. Calculate the DSO on AR and AP. The model is beyond broken. As far as Kenya, Gene said to me Nov 26 and Dec 2 "ideally this week or next, then "any day now".. On March 10th Bill Wells said in WRITING to me no later than March 18th. I will not post the e-mails but there is a fine line between lying and having an "optimistic/unrealistic" forecast. They also said $1mm in 2014 and FAILED to meet they low end of their estimate. Moreover, Q4 sales were lower than Q3. It is not even trending the right way.
GTHP is so desperate that they have to announce an order for 2 Luviva machines? That is very sad when an order for two machines is deserving of a PR. I was told Kenya was close November 26 and December 2 of 2014! Moreover, since the end of February, Gene has said "any day now" for Kenya. Where are the orders? Bill Wells, in an e-mail (writing), said no later than March 18th for Kenya! Lies, lies and more lies. Do you think GTHP can wait another quarter? No orders, no cash, and hoping for a FDA miracle. No path forward from the FDA and the company is worthless. I think GTHP is 30-45 days from BK without real orders. 2 machines is not going to help at this point. Trials and Luviva machines to be purchased 6-12 months the row is irrelevant because the company is not going to make it. Another round of financing? Well then get used to the stock trading below 10 cents very quick.
I expect Q1 revenues to be lower than Q4. As a result, GTHP will report its second declining revenue quarter. Despite repeated indications from mgmt, we never received the order from Kenya. I do not expect Kenya to be announced this quarter. FDA maybe at the end of the month? Again, we were told end of January (2015) last year, remember? Then mgmt said and in February 2015 GTHP it would be a couple more weeks.... So 4 months later now they are telling us this month? Really? The fact is that we are still waiting for the FDA and GTHP during Gene's tenure has NEVER announced a large order (a lot of talking but no actual order). Traders that bought ahead of what they thought was a FDA announcement are now selling the shares. Since I expect Q1 figures to be worse than Q4 this stock can easily move back to 14-15 cents after those numbers are released. Godot knocking at my door is more likely than Kenya this month, this quarter and probably this year. This stock will never be able to build any momentum because they do not have any meaningful orders. Hope might move the stock here and there but without orders the company is worthless.
You are missing a key issue. The mgmt team, and specifically Gene Cartwright, has stated in e-mails and conversations with shareholders to expect the order from Kenya as early as late 2014 (Nov 24 and Dec 2) and made the same promise, via Bill Wells, in March. However, as of May 4th, we are still waiting for the order that the CEO TOLD us was imminent 6 months ago! Do not make promises or provide guidance that you can NOT deliver. Gene has consistently over promised and under delivered. Gene talks a great game but he never delivers the goods. Where is Kenya? How about Bangladesh? Mexico? Nigeria? During his entire tenure GTHP has NOT received a large order. How about telling us to expect a response from the FDA in January. Then in February is a couple more weeks. Now it is May? Just like refiling the PMA in June, right? Gene CONSISTENTLY fails to deliver again and again and now we are facing declining revenues? Q1 will below Q4 sales. Just wait until you see the Q1 report. BTW, great job doubling production ahead of NO orders. Thx Gene!
The way the stock is trading I would not be surprised if they are about to complete some type of financing. Hopefully, Gene will not give it all away just like the Magna deal. It feels very heavy and obviously Gene has no orders to show us. More dilution?
In my opinion there are several factors pushing GTHP lower:
1. Investors, as "guided" by Mr. Cartwright, were expecting an announcement of the Kenya order this month. The expectations were for a large order. Instead GTHP announced the purchased of 1 machine. Follow-up orders are at least 45 days away. As a result, the possibility of a pop from another order ahead of earnings or FDA is no longer available.
2. The current sales forecast for Q2 is what mgmt was expecting to Q4. Q1 will be reported next week. Q1 sales will decline sequentially for the second quarter.
3. This is the third time Cartwright has indicated the FDA is close to a decision. FDA is only a trading event because of the lack of orders.
4. Financing is looming again. If there is no path forward with the FDA dilution will take GTHP to @ 5-10 cents. A pop from FDA will last only until the new financing is announced. Expect Cartwright to sale shares at a discount again.
In conclusion, we have a mgmt team that has over promised and under deliver, no possible orders in the pipeline for the next 45 days, and financing regardless of FDA.
During the conference call I am sure Gene will discount the Q1 disaster and talk about the second half of 2015. Please remember this is similar to 2014 when sales were suppose to ramp up in the second half. The company even double production ahead of these orders. If FDA does not provide some type of path forward the shares are basically worthless.
Agree. Did you decide to buy back GTHP? A lot people pumping the stock. I am sure I will receive a ton of thumbs down but no intelligent replies.
In 2014 GTHP they wrote a PR saying FDA by the end of January. In February they told us a couple more weeks. Now they are saying May. Same issue with orders. Cartwright wrote and talk about a large order from Kenya and Bangladesh last year. In Nov/Dec he was talking " any day now" for Kenya. Finally this week we get an order for 1 machine. Follow-up order maybe 45 days from now? The same pattern over and over again. Another PR release saying refiling of PMA to be completed by end of June. They repeated the same guidance at two investors conference only to refile more than 30 days late. Is does not matter if you are discussing orders, FDA, or refiling a PMA. Same story. Over promise and grossly under deliver. Those are the facts. Gene should not be providing guidance and timetables if we does not have a clue. His worse yet was doubling production in the fall of 2014, spending money they do not have, for orders that were never received. You double production and you do not have any orders, commitments or deposits? Is this guy a first time CEO or something? Oops, he is.
Do I need to post the PR from late 2014 clearly stating they expected FDA announcement by the end of January 2015? How about the PR in February..... a couple more weeks? Oops maybe a couple more months? Do you think this mgmt team has any credibility?
I am changing the name of Gene Cartwright from "Any day now" Gene to "One machine" Gene. He does not seems to be able to sale more 1 machine at the time.
Just announced Tonaquint amending when note will be due to July 10. I guess they are desperate since GTHP does not have the money. It seems the rate is at 18 percent (credit card rate here) or they can convert at LESSER of 25 cents or 5 days weighted average before conversion. Translation, they can get all the upside of a good FDA announcement but no risk because they just collect 18% on the note instead. More dilution. Good for Tonaquint. bad for GTHP shareholders.
First time CEO. He has no idea how to manage expectations. I am still amazed the guy double production in the Fall despite having no orders, deposits or commitments. Not even a first time CEO should be that reckless. Worse part he doubled production during a cash crunch. Now all the capacity is idle and we are paying 18% for the Tonaquint loan and they can convert at 25 cents if we get FDA approval. Wow!