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Amazon.com Inc. Message Board

edison20 64 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 12, 2015 6:10 PM Member since: Jun 5, 1998
  • Reply to

    "Fratlog" will keep oil prices depressed for a while

    by edgk15 Mar 11, 2015 2:05 PM
    edison20 edison20 Mar 11, 2015 5:41 PM Flag

    I read that the total cost of fracking and oil sands is higher than deep sea drilling.
    I assume transportation costs are also higher.
    If the price of oil rises slowly, new deep water drilling will commence, but fracking won't.
    So its up to the big oil companies to anticipate future oil demand and begin deep sea drilling before it is needed,
    of suffer the consequences of wildcat fracking if prices rise too quickly.
    P.S. Although RSI gave a buy signal today, I am not convinced that today was the bottom.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • AAPL will peak on April 18. Apple watch better than I thought.
    Who needs one? Everyone who drives a car and gets a text message.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • edison20 by edison20 Mar 10, 2015 9:44 PM Flag

    RSI@30.87 will give a buy signal on 3/11/15.
    Likely bottom a week from now in the 8's.
    SDRL is not going bankrupt.
    The only thing I worry about is, what happens when Iran starts selling oil.
    Tell the President to keep the sanctions in place until the Iran's stop their Nuclear program.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • edison20 edison20 Mar 10, 2015 12:18 AM Flag

    I don't think you can margin options.
    SDRL is going to $9.57.
    I would sell some now rather than wait for your broker to wipe you out at the bottom.
    Bad luck. I know how you feel. I really thought the stock had broken out in early February.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • edison20 edison20 Mar 9, 2015 11:46 PM Flag

    Huh? Just one day ago Goldman repeated their $40 oil doom and gloom.
    On the other hand, how much can "free" information be worth, especially from a stock manipulator.
    Unfortunately SDRL will likely double bottom. I am holding on. Less than a dollar to go.
    RSI is days away from giving a buy signal.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • AAPL might pull back after the watch is released.
    But Christmas sales are going to be a blockbuster.
    I watched the 1.5 presentation. Slick. Mind blowing.
    It covered every Apple product except the iPhone and iPod.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • edison20 edison20 Mar 7, 2015 3:06 PM Flag

    zigzagho1: I am long SDRL, but its clear to me that its going below $10.
    In 2010 it traded in a 33% range.
    33% off of $14.50 (recent high) is $9.57.
    So why don't I sell (at a loss) now and buy back at $9.57?
    Well, it might not get to $9.57. Or I might be to scared when it does.
    Or I might blow it on GPRO (currently $41) and watch it tank to $27.
    It better to hang on, and if it does hit $9.57, buy more.
    Or maybe buy a growing solar panel stock (FSLR)?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    How to Value a Restaurant Chain

    by edison20 Mar 7, 2015 11:30 AM
    edison20 edison20 Mar 7, 2015 2:58 PM Flag

    cashback: I see NDLS trading between $17 and $27 for several years.
    It IPOed at $18. Institutions are buying up all the float below $18.
    If NDLS were a large chain, I would agree that its grossly overpriced.
    But its a small chain with lots of growth ahead.
    This isn't another COSI (sandwiches) or KKD (donuts with too many locations).
    Its a unique concept that is slowly building loyal customers.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    How to Value a Restaurant Chain

    by edison20 Mar 7, 2015 11:30 AM
    edison20 edison20 Mar 7, 2015 2:47 PM Flag

    adsmith2036: We often bring in catered food where I work.
    Usually sandwiches or pizza.
    I can't see my company ever catering from NDLS but I am pleased to hear that some companies do.
    I can see why kids would love NDLS. Maybe catering for birthday parties?
    And for entertainment, cashback will dress as a clown.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Its not an exact science.
    In 2007 it was easy to see that CMG stores were packed at lunch and empty at dinner.
    They still are. Along the way management improved efficiencies to move the lines faster.
    They also saturated locations with stores, which lowered their transportation costs.
    CMG was immensely profitable from the start. Free cash flow was used to build more stores.
    They had no debt.
    My biggest problem with CMG is that I fear them becoming a fad.
    Too my surprise, that hasn't happened yet.

    In 2007 it was less obvious to see why BWLD would be successful.
    Their locations were empty...unless you went on weekends when young folks went to get drunk.
    After all, it was a sports bar. Seeing how private sports bar were doing well, there was a chance that BWLD would succeed.
    What makes BWLD work is their appeal to families, especially a place to go after little league.
    They are the family version of Hooters
    BWLD has lots of growth ahead.

    NDLS will also do well, but its no CMG or BWLD.
    They are financing store openings with debt.
    Even though they are profitable, the profit isn't enough to finance expansion.
    Compared to CMG and BWLD in 2007, NDLS is overpriced.
    In 2007 BWLD had a PE of 35. NDLS current PE is 50.
    NDLS also lacks sporting events and they are not a bar.
    Where NDLS is different is that they are a unique concept.
    They have no direct competition.
    If I want a dish that NDLS offers, I have to go to NDLS.
    Where else can I get beef stroganoff for $8 including tax and tip (no tipping at NDLS).
    NDLS is experimenting with catering. Too early to tell if it will succeed.
    Where NDLS could improve is to get rid of some of their unprofitable locations.
    This would also make going to NDLS more special.
    NDLS needs to open up more locations in warmer locations to reduce the cyclical effects of winter.
    NDLS does well catering to vegetarians.
    Kids also like it. For some reason, women like it.
    Unlike CMG, NDLS does well at dinner.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    CC today was decent.

    by nclag Mar 5, 2015 9:39 PM
    edison20 edison20 Mar 7, 2015 6:13 AM Flag

    Cashback: i don't recall you saying anything bullish after the Q2 crash.
    You were as negative then as you are now.
    This is one of the few profitable restaurant chains.
    Even though the indexes are at all time highs, many small cap stocks are in a bear market.
    When warmer weather, these stocks will go up 50% or more.
    And rumor has it, summer is coming.
    Gas is cheap. And the Fed is afraid to raise interest rates.
    With down days like today, they don't need to.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    1.3 MIL BUY BLOCK @ CLOSE

    by uso2100 Mar 5, 2015 4:14 PM
    edison20 edison20 Mar 5, 2015 11:38 PM Flag

    SDRL down 17 days, same number of days as last downfall.
    Closed gap at 10.81 in January. Nothing but negative news.
    Warm weather on the way. Time for a rally.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    stop pumping

    by cashback_7 Feb 27, 2015 10:54 AM
    edison20 edison20 Feb 28, 2015 2:58 PM Flag

    cashback: You are wrong about Noodles being a bad idea.
    I loved eating at Noodles long before the stock IPOed.
    The stock is now trading near its IPO price ($18).
    Time to either lighten up with your bearish perspective or even buy the dam thing.
    I have visited malls where Noodles were packed during lunch and busy all day long.
    I have also visited stand alone stores that are struggling.
    The biggest problem with NDLS is its high valuation.
    But $18 seems to be the bottom.
    BWLD did the same thing 8 years ago.
    It would trade between $15 and $35.
    BWLD's PE was lower than NDLS, but still relatively high for a restaurant stock.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    days like this you BUY ...this is why i am trader

    by ivodirect Feb 26, 2015 2:59 PM
    edison20 edison20 Feb 28, 2015 2:49 PM Flag

    dyneox: So you think it could drop under $10 one more time?
    Well, I am an expert at selling at the bottom and I haven't sold yet, so its possible.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Why SDRL is a buy here

    by heatwinagain Feb 28, 2015 9:09 AM
    edison20 edison20 Feb 28, 2015 9:39 AM Flag

    We are in a bear market. The only stocks going up are large cap, the kind in the DOW and S&P averages.
    Many of the mid and small cap stocks I own are down, even on good earnings.
    According to my calculations, the DOW must get over 24000 to come close to the 2000 and 2007 bubble top.
    Since the DOW is only 18000, we've got a long way to go.
    I calculate the peak DOW based on interest rates (currently 3%) and GDP growth (3%/year).

    I've been reading other threads about oil and have concluded that the price is simply cyclical.
    Some people call this manipulation. I say its just an adjustment.
    Supply and demand is relatively inelastic.
    When prices are low, high cost operators start cutting back if they can.
    When prices are high, the economy goes into a recession, cutting back demand.
    So the good news is, there isn't going to be a recession and market is likely to go higher.

    I am holding onto my large cap stocks, but I am putting my new money into SDRL.
    Energy stocks are usually the last to go up in a bull market (and the last to go down in a bear market).

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Am I on Mars?

    by donvpga Feb 26, 2015 1:11 PM
    edison20 edison20 Feb 28, 2015 5:04 AM Flag

    IQNT trying to fill gap at $13.50. Also previous drop was 33%.
    Small cap stocks are out of favor right now. Lots of bargains.
    Most retirement money going into large cap (like Apple).
    I wouldn't blame the drop on the shorts. Only 2% shorted.
    This is actually good. It means the bull market has a long way to go.
    Last year I was calling for DOW 24300 to be the peak.
    Now that peak is higher. Sort of like the 1983-1987 bull run.
    technology stocks peaked in 1983, but the DOW kept going up.
    Then in 1986 everything started going up.
    For Reference purposes, this is like 1983.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • edison20 edison20 Feb 25, 2015 11:22 PM Flag

    Cramer is a momentum trader and doesn't know what he's talking about.
    There's a huge gap at $25 and it will get filled. This year.
    And when it does, Cramer will pump the stock. That's when you Dump it.
    Not now.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Stock buybacks

    by kafkaclone Feb 25, 2015 10:50 PM
    edison20 edison20 Feb 25, 2015 11:16 PM Flag

    Kafkaclone: Thanks for your posts.
    I would rather SDRL focus on paying down their debt or building up cash.
    This is not the time to buy back shares. If the stock falls, it falls.
    In 2000 modem maker 3Com said they would buy back their stock.
    Instead they bought call options, which expired worthless.
    The stock went down because 3Com's earnings were falling. Idiots.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    No One Understands Soda

    by edison20 Feb 25, 2015 9:31 PM
    edison20 edison20 Feb 25, 2015 11:02 PM Flag

    The CEO is an advertising genius.
    Rule #1 in advertising. There's no such thing as bad publicity.
    I am surprised SODA had any success in the USA at all.
    Its going to take a few years, but their market share can only go up.
    You think Coke and Pepsi didn't make some mistakes along the way?
    Unfortunately, I don't think today's sell off was the bottom.
    But I am hanging onto my shares and will probably buy more from time to time.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • It's not about the soda folks. Its all in the advertising. Ask Coke Cola.
    SODA used their advertising budget this quarter to offset their inventory losses.
    When they resume advertising, sales will pick up.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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