overmach2, I don't have a crystal ball but I am monitoring company events pretty closely. I think that at some point before the end of this year this stock surpasses the .50 mark. Merriman Capital Partners rated the stock a "speculative buy" many months ago with a .40 price target and well before the announcement of the two settlements, 5% + buy-ins by well known players and before the emergence of a viable growth strategy for its platform. Also, at the end of the year Blue Calypso will be just 35 days from its Markman hearing against all of the current defendants (assuming no more have settled by then which is certainly a possibility) which could yield well over $500M in damages collectively. Many other things may occur and this list is not exhaustive but hopefully it gives you a reasonable snapshot.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
It doesn't mean much at this point. There are too many terms to be construed as I pointed out when it was originally filed. The Judge will send them back to narrow this considerably. Even the sides concede this is unruly.
Good points all. BCYP is following through on their earlier filing and PR with this restatement. I think we will see several things prior to February though. One thing people are not talking about very much is other companies who are quite likely infringing. If we do not see another settlement or perhaps something more sooner, I would expect to see someone added to the list of defendants and probably someone who dwarfs the size of Groupon (currently the biggest defendant). The other thing I would expect to see sooner rather than later is another form 13d filing. A review of Mr. Chez's investing history suggests he is not done buying (he must update his filing as he adds each additional 1%) and I assume there will be others besides him as well. So while the Markman isn't until the beginning of February ( now only 16 weeks away) I would expect several pieces of news prior to the end of this year.
Don't be surprised if the filing comes in as ordered. While everyone would like to see another settlement it doesn't mean a whole lot if we don't see further delay today/tonight. There are several companies beyond GRPN that are likely to have an interest in securing the BCYP Patents and the increased attention that comes through litigation of this type can have the effect of speeding that process up. GRPN could just as easily be the folks left holding the bag if they are determined to prolong the litigation (and I'm not saying they are). Don't forget that Yelp and Foursquare have their own motivations, could settle any time and simply notify the other co-defendants. There is much more going on here than meets the eye. We are beginning to believe for several different reasons that a buyout could well come from a non-defendant. Regardless, we believe news that investors can really sink their teeth into is not all that far off. To that end our thinking incorporates the probability that BCYP is currently engaged in multi-track discussions and has been for some time.
Yes, I've been recruiting him all along! In all seriousness this is an enormous development and quite validating to people in this investment. Take a look at some of Ronald Chez' other investments, I think you will be quite impressed.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Very possible. My posts are being deleted by Yahoo (reminds me of the old days in Norfolk, VA). Please check my latest blog post for a rundown on the latest finance restructuring by BCYP.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
It depends on what you believe about what is happening at BCYP and timing. If you aren't a believer in the attractiveness of BCYP to multiple players, or if you think we may see another settlement but we won't necessarily get deal specifics, then WDDD may be the better choice since we have a known and anticipated catalyst coming up in mid-October. If you prefer to trade your position you could extend your position in BCYP until mid-October and see what happens. You may miss a little run up in WDDD but I suspect we will see a much bigger SP move there with a denial of the MSJ by Judge Casper. Hope that helps.
They are both great stocks alafrinkebama. I know you didn't ask me the question but I happened to check over here this morning and thought I would give my impression. Would love to hear Jim's also. WDDD has a catalytic event coming October 17 with the MSJ hearing in Boston. As many people know, Worlds received notice from the USPTO that certificates of correction on the priority date, at the heart of Activision's MSJ motion, have now been issued to Worlds. Importantly, the judge can still decide to side with Activision. Given the certificates of correction however, we put the chances of that at less than 10%. An added investment in WDDD offers the possibility of a rise into that hearing and almost certainly a nice move should the Judge reject the MSJ as we expect. Granting an MSJ is not a decision this Judge needs to stick her neck out to make. She can leave it to a jury or this can be taken up on appeal.
For BCYP, unlike many of the patent cases that we both have followed, settlements are coming before many shots have been fired. This is extremely validating for BCYP. The space within which they operate is expected to grow to $8B by 2016 and at a rate that is 3-4 times more traditional social media ad spends. On July 24th FB announced some pretty great quarterly news and the stock has risen above $45 for the first time since the IPO. Buried in that news was the simple line "mobile advertising is now 41% of advertising revenue." They are not the only companies experiencing the Ad sea change to mobile. We also know that statistically P2P endorsements provide the greatest % of product sale conversions. The confluence of these facts and trends should be like smelling salts to even the most jaded investor. The simple fact is that there are too many good reasons and too many motivated parties that have an interest in removing the threat that BCYP's patents pose. Whether we see more settlements or a buyout offer is unclear, but in our view they're coming.