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Fidelity Select Gold Portfolio Message Board

eechicken 14 posts  |  Last Activity: 5 hours ago Member since: Dec 10, 1999
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  • eechicken eechicken 5 hours ago Flag

    I disagree. The pricing of MILL preferred currently seems to indicate a greater likelyhood of deferring or suspending the dividend. IMO, the dividend payout for this quarter is a 50-50 possibility but the market seems to be pricing a 30-70 possibility. If dividend is announced, the preferreds should trade over $10. If not, preferreds should trade lower. I bought in last friday because I believe the upside reward is greater than the downside risk.

    What is the deadline for the dividend announcement? Mill preferred payouts take place on the June 1st if they announce. There is precedent for cutting really close to the dividend payment date. GDP (Goodrich pretroleum) last quarter announced on Tuesday March 3rd for dividend to be paid out on March 16th (15th was a non-business day).

  • Reply to

    I am covering a few thousand

    by verado May 1, 2015 3:43 PM
    eechicken eechicken May 1, 2015 3:52 PM Flag

    Thanks. I just bought back into Mill Preferred D shares today @6.18. Sold them back in the teens a short while ago and was looking to buy back.

  • eechicken eechicken Apr 30, 2015 3:27 PM Flag

    Correction: Book value was $5.07 as of 12/31/2014 per the RSO's earnings release report back in late February:

    Book Value

    As of December 31, 2014, RSO's book value per common share was $5.07, a decrease from $5.41 per common share at December 31, 2013. Total stockholders' equity, which is a measure of equity before consideration of non-controlling interests, was $935.5 million of which $271.7 million was attributable to preferred stock at December 31, 2014. Total stockholders' equity was $773.9 million of which $99.2 million was attributable to preferred stock at December 31, 2013. The decrease in book value per common share of $0.34 was due to dividends paid on common stock of ($0.80), partially offset by net income allocable to common shares of $0.34 and net adjustments through other comprehensive income of $0.15.

  • eechicken eechicken Apr 30, 2015 3:22 PM Flag

    I also bought some RSO shares today @4.42. I thought Book value was around $5.20s rather than over $7. I agree with discount to book value and some negative news is being priced into the stock. I'd like to see book value stabilization instead of deterioration like the past few quarters.

  • Current expiring contract (March 27, 2015) seems neutral. However, future options may be bullish for the stock due to the increasing volume of call options vs. put options. There seems to be 4 times as much call volume compared to put volume in April 2015. There are a few larger than normal option volumes traded and they seem to all be on the call side: 1.64K (K=1000 for those that do no know) 42 call for May 2015, 3.05K 42 call for July 2015, 1.69K 40 call for January 2016, and 1K 43 call for January 2017. Get the feeling that some trader(s) is(are) making bullish bets on BP via these options.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    BP's P/E

    by stockryder1 Feb 22, 2015 7:06 AM
    eechicken eechicken Mar 24, 2015 12:42 PM Flag

    There are many factors that go into valuating a stock price in the integrated energy space. P/E is only 1 consideration. Price/Book, Price to sales, proven reserves, Price to Cash Flow, etc. are also considerations. BP has one of the lowest if not the lowest Price/Book ratio for an integrated energy conglomerate. On a long term basis, BP has pretty good value at these prices. (3-5 year conservative target of $60 with dividends paid out quarterly basis). There are 3 current negative catalysts that could change positively for BP in the future (1. Litigation risk from Macondo. 2. Low oil prices. 3. Russia). If oil prices continue to be low, BP will likely be acquired by another major integrated oil company. The scenario that no one mentioned is that BP could be split up and the pieces are acquired by multiple integrated oil companies to pass anti-trust regulations from both US and UK. (UK and international operations acquired by RDS and US assets acquired by either XOM or CVX). IMO, people that are investors and not daytraders should dollar cost average into BP shares.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Huge volume of March 2015 $38 call options traded within the first 30 minutes. The volume is about 9 times the Open Interest. That seems really high to me.

    Even though it may be hard to prove, it feels like someone (person, hedge fund, etc.) knew something this morning about BP.

  • The PR has the record date for class B preferred shares as March 2, 2015 in order to receive the distribution. It has class C and class D preferred shares record date as March 13, 2015. All will be paid on March 16, 2015. Is this a typo or has the class B shares (GDPAN) already traded ex-div?

  • The convertible preferred shares has avg volume of 21.8K shares traded.
    On February 27, 2015, there was 214.3K shares traded (much higher than normal trading volume).

    Just curious as to the volume spike in GDPAN shares.

    IMO, GDPAN is a better buy than GDP and the other GDP preferred classes.

    Disclosure: Currently long GDPAN shares


  • eechicken eechicken Feb 18, 2015 4:54 PM Flag

    The past 4 dividend announcements have taken place at 6 am. Prior to the last dividend announcement, the prior 3 were all announced on Thursday around the 20th of the month.

    My crazy prediction is that GDP will announce the preferred dividends for the coming quarter on Thursday February 19, 2015 at 6 am and the preferred shares trade significantly higher (11+) tomorrow.

  • Reply to

    Bought WMC 12.50 Mar 2015 calls

    by eechicken Feb 5, 2015 3:18 PM
    eechicken eechicken Feb 18, 2015 3:33 PM Flag

    Sold my 10 March 12.50 Calls today @1.70 and took profits. Bought the calls@1.15 on February 5th.

    WMC had a nice trend of higher lows that was broken today. Also, Fidelity must have flipped its rating on WMC. It had dropped to rating of 1.9 (Bearish).

  • eechicken eechicken Feb 17, 2015 1:11 PM Flag

    GDPAN is the best buy out of the 3 preferred issues, IMO.

    It is trading at a significant discount to par compared to GDP-PC and GDP-PD with a higher yield as well.

    Disclosure: Long GDPAN shares currently.

  • eechicken eechicken Feb 11, 2015 4:19 PM Flag

    Are you sure all the preferreds are trading at the same par value percentage as senior bonds? GDPAN is trading almost slightly more than 50% par value compared to GDP preferred class C and class D shares. IMO, GDPAN is a better buy than the other preferred shares. GDPAN has a 50 par value while the other 2 have 25 par value.

  • Bought 10 Calls today. Expecting WMC to trade higher by then with the dividend declaration likely before March option expiration. For some reason, WMC seems to be rated highly. It has a rating of over 9 from Fidelity (strong buy) and A rating from another brokerage of mine.

    Sentiment: Buy

17.71+0.03(+0.17%)May 1 6:25 PMEDT