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Fidelity Select Gold Portfolio Message Board

eechicken 15 posts  |  Last Activity: May 19, 2015 12:40 PM Member since: Dec 10, 1999
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  • Reply to

    BP selling assets to pay dividends

    by born2win_2000 May 19, 2015 11:59 AM
    eechicken eechicken May 19, 2015 12:40 PM Flag

    Disagree. Dividend seems to be supported by earnings for the past quarters and the current earnings estimate of 0.38 may be too low. It is possible for BP to accumulate additional capital for any potential Macondo settlement down the road. Per yahoo finance, the past earnings are as follows:

    Q2 '14 Estimate 1.12 Actual 1.18
    Q3 '14 Estimate .91 Actual .99
    Q4 '14 Estimate .51 Actual .74
    Q1 '15 Estimate .28 Actual .85

    Current Quarter's earnings estimate .38.

    For Q1 '15, oil prices sold was 46 something and nat gas was 4 something (suspect based on Brent and international nat gas prices and not the really cheap us nat gas prices) Q2 oil prices is looking to be at least $10 higher than Q1. The question for Q2 would be if the increase from oil prices would offset the likely refining and energy trading (Contango in Q1) decline.

  • Reply to

    oil flat, dollar weaker, bp sinks 1.5%

    by dou_cme2038 May 7, 2015 6:52 AM
    eechicken eechicken May 7, 2015 4:25 PM Flag

    I do not think you know what you are talking about. BP's investment in Russia has been great value. From 2003 8 Billion investment of TNK to sale in 2013, BP has received about $19 Billion in dividends from TNK and sold TNK for 12.48 Billion in cash as well as upping their interest in Rosneft to 19.75%. Do you even understand international law/politics. Maybe it is easier/cheaper to buy stake in Rosneft (with government favors) rather than get permits to drill from Russia. 300+ percent gain in 10 years is not too bad given the size of the investment. Russia is currently in a recession. When it recovers in the next few years, this investment will yield better results than today. You need to factor dividends in when accounting for share prices. After factoring dividends, $58.00 per share in 2000 is probably around $30 or less in todays prices. BP has a decent size dividend payout and based upon earnings will continue to payout for the forseeable future. IMO, BP is down today from UK election uncertainty. The only thing I will agree with you is that their gulf strategy (Macondo spill) is lacking. While it is bad PR, maybe in hindsight it would have been better to litigate from the start like Exxon in the Valdez spill to save on damages.

  • Reply to

    earnings out

    by forager3215 May 5, 2015 8:14 PM
    eechicken eechicken May 5, 2015 9:05 PM Flag

    RSO's earnings has been weak for a few quarters. AFFO and BV (Book Value) has been declining every quarter. I hope analysts ask mgmt the tough questions.

    Q1 2014 AFFO 20 cents and BV dropped from 5.41 to 5.28 (13 cent drop)
    Q2 2014 AFFO 19 cents and BV dropped from 5.28 to 5.24 (4 cent drop)
    Q3 2014 AFFO 18 cents and BV dropped from 5.24 to 5.21 (3 cent drop)
    Q4 2014 AFFO 17 cents and BV dropped from 5.21 to 5.07 (14 cent drop)
    Q1 2015 AFFO 16 cents and BV dropped from 5.07 to 5.00 (7 cent drop)

    Can mgmt explain why the results have been bad for several quarters and what can be done to reverse this trend? Hopefully, something new since whatever they tried in the past few quarters is not working. Personally, I like to see at least 1 analyst really tear into mgmt for their incompetence.

    It would be nice to see both AFFO and BV stop dropping., but it seems like wishful thinking at this time.

  • Reply to

    It's 2 Hours Passed the Close

    by lenyw May 5, 2015 6:00 PM
    eechicken eechicken May 5, 2015 6:38 PM Flag

    Last quarter's earnings was release around 8 pm EST around 4 hours after the market close.
    I would expect earnings to be around that time. Conference call is tomorow morning.

  • Reply to

    I am covering a few thousand

    by verado May 1, 2015 3:43 PM
    eechicken eechicken May 5, 2015 2:05 PM Flag

    Dumped those Preferred D shares today for minimal profit@6.50. Most of the preferred shares seem to be doing worse than the common shares. It may be related to the 10 yr yield moving higher. IMO this would affect the debt in a negative way in larger interest payments to lenders (floating and not fixed rate) could make paying dividend on preferred less likely for cash strapped companies like MILL.

  • Reply to

    Las Vegas betting preferds will be paid

    by lestercohen37 May 4, 2015 9:29 AM
    eechicken eechicken May 4, 2015 5:39 PM Flag

    I disagree slightly. If dividend is announced, preferred should trade higher. Your scenario is possible for D below 5 and C below 6 if dividend is deferred or suspended. As another poster stated in another post, MILL may be working with their lenders to determine if preferred dividends can be paid out. IMO, your scenario of MILL paying out preferred dividends and the preferred shares dropping seems improbable though not impossible. What price did you short the C and D preferred shares?

  • Reply to

    Las Vegas betting preferds will be paid

    by lestercohen37 May 4, 2015 9:29 AM
    eechicken eechicken May 4, 2015 11:50 AM Flag

    I disagree. The pricing of MILL preferred currently seems to indicate a greater likelyhood of deferring or suspending the dividend. IMO, the dividend payout for this quarter is a 50-50 possibility but the market seems to be pricing a 30-70 possibility. If dividend is announced, the preferreds should trade over $10. If not, preferreds should trade lower. I bought in last friday because I believe the upside reward is greater than the downside risk.

    What is the deadline for the dividend announcement? Mill preferred payouts take place on the June 1st if they announce. There is precedent for cutting really close to the dividend payment date. GDP (Goodrich pretroleum) last quarter announced on Tuesday March 3rd for dividend to be paid out on March 16th (15th was a non-business day).

  • Reply to

    I am covering a few thousand

    by verado May 1, 2015 3:43 PM
    eechicken eechicken May 1, 2015 3:52 PM Flag

    Thanks. I just bought back into Mill Preferred D shares today @6.18. Sold them back in the teens a short while ago and was looking to buy back.

  • eechicken eechicken Apr 30, 2015 3:27 PM Flag

    Correction: Book value was $5.07 as of 12/31/2014 per the RSO's earnings release report back in late February:

    Book Value

    As of December 31, 2014, RSO's book value per common share was $5.07, a decrease from $5.41 per common share at December 31, 2013. Total stockholders' equity, which is a measure of equity before consideration of non-controlling interests, was $935.5 million of which $271.7 million was attributable to preferred stock at December 31, 2014. Total stockholders' equity was $773.9 million of which $99.2 million was attributable to preferred stock at December 31, 2013. The decrease in book value per common share of $0.34 was due to dividends paid on common stock of ($0.80), partially offset by net income allocable to common shares of $0.34 and net adjustments through other comprehensive income of $0.15.

  • eechicken eechicken Apr 30, 2015 3:22 PM Flag

    I also bought some RSO shares today @4.42. I thought Book value was around $5.20s rather than over $7. I agree with discount to book value and some negative news is being priced into the stock. I'd like to see book value stabilization instead of deterioration like the past few quarters.

  • Current expiring contract (March 27, 2015) seems neutral. However, future options may be bullish for the stock due to the increasing volume of call options vs. put options. There seems to be 4 times as much call volume compared to put volume in April 2015. There are a few larger than normal option volumes traded and they seem to all be on the call side: 1.64K (K=1000 for those that do no know) 42 call for May 2015, 3.05K 42 call for July 2015, 1.69K 40 call for January 2016, and 1K 43 call for January 2017. Get the feeling that some trader(s) is(are) making bullish bets on BP via these options.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    BP's P/E

    by stockryder1 Feb 22, 2015 7:06 AM
    eechicken eechicken Mar 24, 2015 12:42 PM Flag

    There are many factors that go into valuating a stock price in the integrated energy space. P/E is only 1 consideration. Price/Book, Price to sales, proven reserves, Price to Cash Flow, etc. are also considerations. BP has one of the lowest if not the lowest Price/Book ratio for an integrated energy conglomerate. On a long term basis, BP has pretty good value at these prices. (3-5 year conservative target of $60 with dividends paid out quarterly basis). There are 3 current negative catalysts that could change positively for BP in the future (1. Litigation risk from Macondo. 2. Low oil prices. 3. Russia). If oil prices continue to be low, BP will likely be acquired by another major integrated oil company. The scenario that no one mentioned is that BP could be split up and the pieces are acquired by multiple integrated oil companies to pass anti-trust regulations from both US and UK. (UK and international operations acquired by RDS and US assets acquired by either XOM or CVX). IMO, people that are investors and not daytraders should dollar cost average into BP shares.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Huge volume of March 2015 $38 call options traded within the first 30 minutes. The volume is about 9 times the Open Interest. That seems really high to me.

    Even though it may be hard to prove, it feels like someone (person, hedge fund, etc.) knew something this morning about BP.

  • The PR has the record date for class B preferred shares as March 2, 2015 in order to receive the distribution. It has class C and class D preferred shares record date as March 13, 2015. All will be paid on March 16, 2015. Is this a typo or has the class B shares (GDPAN) already traded ex-div?

  • The convertible preferred shares has avg volume of 21.8K shares traded.
    On February 27, 2015, there was 214.3K shares traded (much higher than normal trading volume).

    Just curious as to the volume spike in GDPAN shares.

    IMO, GDPAN is a better buy than GDP and the other GDP preferred classes.

    Disclosure: Currently long GDPAN shares

    Thanks

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