I hope this run-up is not just based on idle speculation. This is pretty expensive for a company that is still losing money well after the effects of the polar vortex are a distant memory. I wish I could hedge my substantial long exposure, but call time value doesn't quite seem high enough for a company that has doubled in a few weeks.
Todays preliminary results from MVNR don't seem as bad as the market reaction would indicate. Seems to be a lot of delayed revenue, but "Co confirms FY15 EPS guidance of $0.28-0.36, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $0.28 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; confirms FY15 revs of $185-195 mln vs. $190.0 mln Capital IQ "
• In-situ extraction has significant technical and environmental advantages and yields substantial net energy gains
• Produces a light hydrocarbon product composed of naphtha, jet fuel, diesel, natural gas and LPG
• Estimated all-in production costs ~$40-45 USD/barrel (in Israel)
This is from the November 2014 investor presentation. They need to prove that they can produce oil at a cost that will be economic. I was hoping they would find oil, not kerogen. They seem to be backing away from the AMSO project, which also uses in-situ heating technology.
It is possible that the rise in price is due to speculation about preliminary results from Genie Oil &
Gas. The retail energy provider business should throw off cash, but growth has been anemic and the nat gas part is especially disappointing.
I have a decent position in GNE, but GNE-A has a great yield, trades at a discount, and seems to be the safer play on Genie.