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Synta Pharmaceuticals Corp. (SNTA) Message Board

efficient_frontier2002 543 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 14, 2014 12:00 PM Member since: Dec 1, 2001
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  • efficient_frontier2002 by efficient_frontier2002 Aug 14, 2014 12:00 PM Flag

    The counterparty to the private placement must be confident too.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • The sky is truly the limit.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    An open letter to Adam F

    by ivanprokov Oct 27, 2013 11:39 PM
    efficient_frontier2002 efficient_frontier2002 Oct 28, 2013 12:48 AM Flag

    Not to mention a 23.5 month-OS of 24% (vs. only 9% in the control arm) when the 2 Eastern European outliers are eliminated. This means real hope for patients.

  • efficient_frontier2002 efficient_frontier2002 Oct 27, 2013 12:18 AM Flag

    Yup, it's an apples and orangutans comparison, which I'm sure will be noted in the CC.

  • efficient_frontier2002 by efficient_frontier2002 Oct 26, 2013 7:38 PM Flag

    And the 24% D+G OS remained steady for the last 8 months. Eliminating the 2 Eastern European outliers really improved the results, and hopefully will in GALAXY 2 too. This is getting more interesting!

  • efficient_frontier2002 by efficient_frontier2002 Aug 7, 2013 10:06 PM Flag

    Jul 1, 2013 REARDON WILLIAM SDirector 4,000 Direct Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $0 per share. N/A
    Jul 1, 2013 GOLLUST KEITH RDirector 16,000 Direct Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $0 per share. N/A
    Jul 1, 2013 KOVNER BRUCEDirector 10,000 Direct Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $0 per share. N/A
    Jul 1, 2013 KUFE DONALD WDirector 8,000 Direct Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $0 per share. N/A
    Jul 1, 2013 WILSON ROBERT NDirector 2,000 Direct Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $0 per share. N/A
    Jun 28, 2013 BAHCALL SAFI ROfficer 10,000 Direct Purchase at $5.03 per share. 50,300
    Jun 27, 2013 KOVNER BRUCEDirector 150,000 Indirect Purchase at $4.71 per share. 706,500
    Jun 26, 2013 KOVNER BRUCEDirector 300,000 Indirect Purchase at $4.65 per share. 1,395,000
    Jun 25, 2013 KOVNER BRUCEDirector 200,000 Indirect Purchase at $4.35 per share. 870,000
    Jun 24, 2013 KOVNER BRUCEDirector 200,000 Indirect Purchase at $4.43 per share. 885,999
    Jun 21, 2013 BAHCALL SAFI ROfficer 20,000 Direct Purchase at $4.12 per share. 82,400
    Jun 21, 2013 KOVNER BRUCEDirector 50,000 Indirect Purchase at $4.23 per share. 211,500
    Jun 18, 2013 KOVNER BRUCEDirector 200,000 Indirect Purchase at $4 per share. 800,000
    Jun 14, 2013 BAHCALL SAFI ROfficer 10,000 Direct Purchase at $4.06 per share. 40,600
    Jun 6, 2013 KOVNER BRUCEDirector 738,900 Indirect Purchase at $4.31 per share. 3,184,659
    Jun 6, 2013 BAHCALL SAFI ROfficer 10,000 Direct Purchase at $4.04 per share. 40,400
    Jun 5, 2013 KOVNER BRUCEDirector 756,000 Indirect Purchase at $4.71 per share. 3,560,760
    Jun 5, 2013 VUKOVIC VOJOOfficer 10,000 Direct Purchase at $4.58 per share. 45,800
    Jun 4, 2013 KOVNER BRUCEDirector 505,100 Indirect Purchase at $4.99 per share. 2,520,449
    Jun 4, 2013 WILSON ROBERT NDirector 10,000 Direct Purchase at $5 per share. 50,000

    Of course SNTA announced the excellent breast cancer trial results because they were material and therefore they HAD TO.

  • Reply to

    current action is just silly

    by beachlifeisfun Jun 5, 2013 7:48 AM
    efficient_frontier2002 efficient_frontier2002 Jun 8, 2013 5:53 PM Flag

    Thanks for the info, viclobserver. I'm fairly new to VICL and this board and didn't realize you had a model. (In my post I was just using back of the envelope numbers which I believe
    are approximately accurate.) I like your very bullish results. Please provide a link to a fuller description of your model if you have one.

  • Reply to

    current action is just silly

    by beachlifeisfun Jun 5, 2013 7:48 AM
    efficient_frontier2002 efficient_frontier2002 Jun 8, 2013 2:24 PM Flag

    And the fact that the randomization was 2:1 rather than 1:1 increases the chances that the very long delay in reaching the required number of events is due to the A-7 group surviving very long.

    If the control group (1/3 of the total) also survived much longer than predicted, then maybe only ~80%-90% have now died instead of the predicted ~90%-95%, but this couldn't impact the timing of x-number-of-deaths-occurring that much.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • efficient_frontier2002 by efficient_frontier2002 Mar 14, 2013 10:06 AM Flag

    1. The shelf offering will give SNTA a stronger bargaining position with partnership discussions. Hopefully it won't have to be used.

    2. The elesclomol news was encouraging.

    3. Even more investigator-sponsored trials are in the works. Can't hurt,

    It seems like Mr. Market is overreacting.

  • efficient_frontier2002 efficient_frontier2002 Feb 28, 2013 10:09 AM Flag

    One thing I hadn't heard before is that demand for Keryx' product will growth around 6% in the West, in in double digits in emerging countries. This works out to a $3 billion market opportunity just for dialysis patients in less than 10 years.

  • Reply to

    Zerenex a Game Changer - From MSN Money 2/10/13

    by mrfuji70 Feb 10, 2013 9:20 AM
    efficient_frontier2002 efficient_frontier2002 Feb 10, 2013 4:20 PM Flag

    The $750 million figure undestates Zenerix' annual cost savings in two ways ...

    1. It's just for the United States (1/3 of Zenerix' market)
    2. As Dr. Lewis stated in the conference call, fewer nurses would be required and the patients would get fewer infections from the (reduced) IV's.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • efficient_frontier2002 by efficient_frontier2002 Feb 5, 2013 12:26 AM Flag

    1. 5 chemical reasons given for KERX obtaining an extension for its key patent.

    2. Besides, it has 2 other patents (until 2024 and 2026) which a generic would have to "invent around."

    3. Regardless, Europe (30% of Zenerex' market) will almost certainly give KERX 10 year exclusivity.

    4. The extremely strong anemia data may INCREASE Zenerex IP protection and protect it for DECADES.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • efficient_frontier2002 by efficient_frontier2002 Jan 30, 2013 11:48 PM Flag

    As a CLSN newbie, I ask for any knowledgeable opinion on the upside for CLSN beyond ablations for primary and met liver cancer . For instance, how big is HIFU likely to be? What other cancer indications are likely to benefit from ThermoDox?

    Thanks in advance!

  • Reply to

    I love the dead message board

    by shmori Jan 8, 2013 1:01 AM
    efficient_frontier2002 efficient_frontier2002 Jan 9, 2013 9:47 PM Flag

    Me too. It's been that way for the three years I've owned SNTA. I see it as another sign that SNTA is the diamond in the rough it appears to be.

  • efficient_frontier2002 by efficient_frontier2002 Dec 11, 2012 11:49 PM Flag

    Please check out SNTA's December overview on their webside. Slide 7 shows that SNTA projects $2 billion of annual sales for ganetespib for 2nd line lung cancer (in combo w/ chemotherapy). Slides 34-38 show how outstanding the Phase 2b interim results were, including a ganetespib Hazard Ratio of only 0.37. (The Phase 3 trial will be 99% powered assuming a much higher Hazard Ratio of 0.60). If the interim results hold up, ganetespib will add an average of around 12 months of life for adeno-non-rapidly-progressing lung cancer pateints (19 months instead of 7 months)! This is pretty remarkable.

    And this doesn't include ganetespib's potential in 1st line lung cancer, as a monotherapy, in other combinations (including radiation) and in many other cancers. It doesn't include elesclomol and the rest of the pipeline either.

    And it doesn't hurt that the insiders have been buying and that certain insiders have very deep pockets.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Lazard

    by skibum1985 Nov 14, 2012 10:42 PM
    efficient_frontier2002 efficient_frontier2002 Nov 16, 2012 12:10 AM Flag

    Dr. Bahcall stated that ganetespib could top $2 billion in annual sales as a combo therapy for 2nd line NSCLC. All it has to do is achieve 25% penetration (which he seemed to think was conservative) of the 160,000 patients/year and charge ~$50K.

    This doesn't include its monotherapy trials or combo with first line NSCLC or other cancers or its other pipeline drugs.

    He also stated that the Phase 3 trial was 99% powered assuming a 60% Hazard Ratio. The Phase 2b Interim Hazard Ratio was far better -- 37%! The probability of failure is truly microscopic.

    It's hard to see how Synta can fail. Lives will be extended by 170% (not 70%) (about a full year on average) if the Phase 2b Interim results hold up. And they could get even better since the trend has been improving with time.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • efficient_frontier2002 by efficient_frontier2002 Oct 2, 2012 12:40 AM Flag

    having performed so well today. It will be interesting!

  • efficient_frontier2002 efficient_frontier2002 Oct 1, 2012 9:54 PM Flag

    You left out the overall survivor data (slides 20 & 31 of the ESMO presentation). Here is the 335 day (11 month) Kaplan-Meier survival data:

    D D+Ganetespib
    6mo since diagnosis 26% still alive 71% still alive
    non-current-smokers 31% still alive 65% still alive
    no liver/bone metastatis 17% still alive 71% still alive

    In addition, the D+G curves have been flattenting, suggesting that the best is yet to come.

    All 3 of these data cuts represent well over 50% of the total all-adeno population,

    This data is absolutely stunning!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Here’s the full quote from Dr. Bahcall, from around the 34:30-minute mark of the ESMO presentation …

    “We do believe we have something very exciting. As one physician told me who reviewed the data recently—he said : ‘You have something incredibly valuable. And you have an extraordinary responsibility to get this drug to patients.’”

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Tomorrow's Trading

    by billydbaseball Sep 30, 2012 7:34 AM
    efficient_frontier2002 efficient_frontier2002 Sep 30, 2012 8:33 PM Flag

    I don't think anybody was expecting strong statistical significance (p =0.010 for the large 6 months since diagnosis popuation ... p=0.023 for non-current smokers ... p=0.017 for patients with no liver or bone mets).

    Of course the p would really become microscopic if 2 or more of these restictions were combined.

    It looks like there's about 97 different ways Synta can design the Phase 3 trial so that it will succeed. Tough problem!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

SNTA
3.17+0.04(+1.28%)Nov 28 1:00 PMEST

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