Welcome back..I got back 2 weeks ago. I have to admit that I sold some AI about a week ago and kept half waiting for another entry point but I am not going to put the entire amount. I picked some GAB with a 10% yield a some MTGE...I still think there is some value but I am getting a little more cautious...maybe we get a Santa Claus rally..I don't want to be too committed into January even though I don't think any serious tapering will take place until second quarter. Job market still under performing and a lot of concern over the state of healthcare situation...Scary what is going on with our negotiations with Iran...I am not at all confident about foreign policy...Also just don't feel like making any large investment at present..can't exactly explain but not comfortable with overall mood of our country and expect a pull back. I almost sense from your comment that you may have similar concern...Let me know at your convenience...Warm regards Dr. EHC
Why would we be concerned with tapering....it would most likely get us out of this madness where we can begin a more responsible path to economic recovery. Unfortunately we will most likely extend unemployment benefits beyond the present 99 weeks because no one has the stomach to require anything in return for the payment of these benefits such as TRAINING to upgrade job skills; Go back to the old playbook of the 1965 Manpower and development Act where our citizens got real training and education to prepare them to move ahead in various careers....Not just sitting at home collecting benefits and becoming more dependent on government...."Those who argue about their weaknesses and shortcomings GET TO KEEP THEM!
Don't forget the $10 billion the administration lost on their sale of general motors stock....these are the worst of the worst when it comes to financial management and every other kind of governance ....we all should be concerned with the "deal" that secretary of state john kerry is crafting with iran...thank goodness he failed in his attempt at becoming president unfortunately he finally got into a position where he can cause catastrophic damage to our country and the world,,,it is a joke that iran needs nuclear power for energy...they are awash in oil and only want nuclear capability to develop weapons...can our diplomats really be this stupid? hopefully the congress will reign these idiots in or better yet fire every damn one of them immediately!!!!!
wash in oil and only want nuclear capability to develop atomic weapons
To: bachus Re: Your comment to robert.larouch Please see my response to your comments calling him an idiot...maybe more investigation on your part is in order because it does not seem as though you are acquainted with actual makeup of BLS statistics but your comments seem to imply that you actually think that you know what you are talking about. If you wish to engage in an objective discussion of what you purport to know about this subject matter, I will be happy to accommodate you...if not zip it up..clear enough and when you get frustrated with others comments, try to use intelligent ways of communications because anyone who resorts to this childless name-calling is obviously never going to be a candidate for a Rhodes Schlorship. A helpful axiom: Better to let people think one is stupid rather then to comment(or worse commit it to written form), and remove any doubt. fini
I think your comments are right on target...keep up the good work. RE:bachus100 Who is the idiot? Does anyone actually believe BLS stastics...really?? Pretty soon he will be quoting the tooth fairy. To bachus 100 ..if you really believe BLS stastics check line items regarding the 10 million or so who have just given up on trying to obtain employmemt,,,can,t find the number because BLS stops counting! Before you start calling people idiots, you may want to check your premise and your source of facts. Dr.ehc Phd economics retired member of Federal Reserve.
Thanks for your response, I agree that the thin trades allow a small volume to cause large moves. I think that if one wants to buy or sell AI, better to do it over TIME than all at once. Best to you as always. Dr. EHC
You may want to consider sustainability of dividend; composition of portfolio and it's ability to performing in a market where rates are rising and duration of portfolio. At this time, I believe MTGE is better positioned than others and that their portfolio is hedged better and mix of residential both conforming and non-conforming plus commercial represent a more flexible portfolio able to withstand increased interest rates and better able to recast rates for variable loans. Would appreciate your comments..best to you..Dr.EHC
Almost without exception Ai often opens up in the morning....fluctuates between late morning and early afternoon then will usually close down from the day's high. It appears as though some day traders or computer-generated trades are quick to grab early gains.. I have found it better to buy at closing bell to minimize price and, if selling, do so after initial morning gains. Now I don,t trade this one because I own it at half of current book and am content to collect dividends. Just observe and see if you notice a similar trend. Best to all..Dr.EHC
Dear Lunco: Read Dr. Fama's comments...my take is: Normal interest rate curve is lower at short intervals (overnight rates up to 10yr...Higher rates out the longer the term). He is suggesting an inverted curve which normally occurs when FED tightens by raising Fed funds rates or raises bank reserves or both which shrinks money supply and causes short term rates to rise. Fed normally has much less control over long term rates except for the now -known fact of massive bond purchases to keep supp;y of long term money at exceptionally low rates to stimulate economy (house purchases and refinances of debt both retail and business). He may not have given enough weight to the massive scale of long term money being supplied by the Fed both shot and long term in an effort to increase employment and allow people to keep or be able to sell their houses. I think it is easy to underestimate the effects of an unprecedented scale of government intervention in capital markets. I disagree with his case that short term rates should have risen as long term rates declined...they did what they should have done as a function of Fed actions. Best to you..I am off to the South Pacific.Dr.ehc
I do hope you are correct...i have been holding a1 and mtge for almost 3 years...i also agree that jobs report didn't help although mtge up over last week as well as ai. best to you..dr.ehc
I know this may be a repeat message but in a market where interest rates are low and for the near future will most likely remain low, it is, in my opinion, much more difficult to be involved in options because they Prosper in markets that are more volatile with more risk-taking. Take a look at the number of contracts for REITS....It's a pretty small number compared to much more heavily traded securities like facebook. Those of us who have bought and held, I think, will prosper. Best to all. Dr.ehc
I appreciate the kind comments and hope we all continue to prosper. I have to travel to West Coast and will be away for the next 3 weeks and may not be able to get to a message board so please don't think that I have ignored you...will get in touch when I return. Best to you..Dr.ehc
I have to go to the West Coast to help my son for the next 3 weeks and won't be here to respond to any messages...I will try to see message page but please don't think I have ignored you...will get in touch when I return...as always, the best to you..Dr.ehc
Thank you for your comments...I think that you are correct re: slow growth in overall economy with some acceleration but we continue to add part-time jobs at an increasing rate compared to full time jobs. some attribute this to national health care law but I also think it has a lot to do with lack of demand and insecure attitudes among consumers. Also an increasing level of hostility by government toward business in general and Wall St. in particular ($13 Bil settlement with JP Morgan...funds to be distributed based on some formula prepared by the Dept. of Justice). I wouldn't be surprised if some of these funds end up helping "some" in the upcoming election of 2014...call me paranoid but it is not so far out to at least consider. Energy will continue to be a hot topic and attempts to install related taxes (carbon)..I think that Fed Govt., whether they mean to or not, will find a way to curtail full potential of recovery so as not to realize the kind of recovery we all would like to see...hope I'm wrong. I am debating adding more AI...think i'll wait a while. Best to you...Dr.ehc
Always good to hear from you. I think that you may very well correct in this reaching $30 within the next 6 - 12 months.. Would be nice to see a dividend increase also. Maybe you have noticed many larger banks oriented to mortgage generation laying-off large numbers, they say, due to lower mortgage demand...this could be a problem if it continues for any extended period. I hope AI can continue dividend for at least the next 2 quarters so that we can get a better feel....maybe if it hits anywhere near $30 and economy is still slow, I may want to take some off the table and come back later....just thinking out loud...would appreciate any thoughts that you have. Also wish you a good week end. BEST TO YOU! Dr.ehc
Many economists are suggesting no taper until June 2014 and then only gently...hope you are right. Best to you. Dr.ehc
It appears to me that AI has a way to run at least in the near run....most of the basics seem to be in place: A FED RESERVE that will be stimulating labor and growth; no tapering for some time into the future and, even then, gradual so as not to stunt prospects of recovery; continued conflict among U.S. political leaders resulting in little real financial reform; continued slow economic progress domestically and international ; growing energy base in U.S. should lead to lower energy costs at home and desire among investors to achieve higher rates of return and minimizing Risk.....what better than BDC's and REITS (Carefully chosen) with emphasis on YOUR OWN research in combination with PERSONAL review of SEC filings and external reports.....I think that this better than bank or treasury returns and provides a high enough incentive to warrant the risk. I am not an active trader and, when I do buy, I like to hold usually more than 2 or 3 years or longer and over this time span I very seldom lose and generate 14% consistently.. BEST TO ALL Dr.ehc
These turkeys give turkeys a bad name....evidently they won't get the picture until we have to shed 1000 points or more, cause an unnecessary panic before they check their egos at the door. I hope we have long enough memories to remember at Election Time and hopefully we can get legislation introduced to make sure that, in the event of future government shutdowns, BOTH CONGRESS AND ALL ADMINISTRATION INCLUDING THE EXECUTIVE BRANCH AND SENATE GET TO STAND IN LINE FIRST FOR "NO PAY" UNTIL THEY RESUME WORK SINCE THEY ARE PART OF THE PROBLEM THE SUCKERS WHO PAY THEIR TAXES!!!!!