You are right too. I should have said I expect October to be A bottom. Maybe tactical. IF we break 1820, we may be in a bear market/recession.
Basically you are right and I do not think we have seen the market bottom yet. Soon but not yet.
Traders may "LOVE" what is happening but be sure that most of them are losing money.
Sorry to hear. We have all been there. All PE is taking a horrible beating. October earnings should be dismal due to mark to market of holdings. Recovery may come afterwards UNLESS we go into a bear market/recession which would devastate realizations (distributions). When they finally do recover they will rocket up. IMO.
Everything you say is absolutely correct. The thing to worry about is the next report due in October.Earnings may even be negative. After that CG looks fine and with great distributions.
Earnings are being revised downward constantly. So far as the market keeps falling, and it has a way to go, the mark to market valuations will keep dropping. Distributions, however, depend on quarterly realizations, not earnings. Those too will be difficult to close if the economy goes into recession. That is why PE firms are down so much.
Agreed. In October we will see if this is a 15% or so correction or a bear market. A N.Dallas money manager that predicted the last two bear markets is predicting another one now. The jury is still out.
Yes but that $10 or so differential is constant and built into the price. A decent spread between WTI and Brent is still needed. JPM has it Underweight with $23 target.
Thanks for your comment.
Not really. PE's ENI depends on mark to market valuations of their holdings. Barring individual situations, when the market is up so should the sector. Seems that some hedge funds are selling.