Good to know someone knows when rates will turn again. As to TBT, it will only protect against a rise in long rates. If short rates rise and long rates do not,which may well happen initially, MORL will get crushed.
I agree. I mentioned the law suit because it is the only thing out there. Before, it was falling oil prices, now I do not know.
Dividend is hard to anticipate as it depends on the quarter's realizations. I believe what weighs more is last quarter terrible results. My bank's analyst (JPM's) has a buy rating and a PT of 25.
BDC's and mREIT's are different. The latter should not do well when short rates rise. If long rates rise, their BV goes down. If they do not rise,the flattening curve hits their earnings. They depend on their hedging ability.
BDC's,on the other hand, benefit because of their Libor based loans.
They pay the dividend and short the stock via a derivative. They aim for a wash and use the money they get as they see fit. just my guess.
JP Morgan does not cover BX but has lowered the targets for all PE except Carlyle.
Longer term they are bullish on the sector. I would hold on to anything I own in the sector and add /buy BX under 40.
Thank you. Not all is bad BDCL,with a 17+% distribution, should prosper.
The fundamentals are great but the trip from low 30's to low 40's was too fast. It needs to consolidate between here and below 40.