Is there not a Lee Education board where this issue could more appropriately be discussed?
a dilution, which is highly likely, will result in a 1 for 20 reverse split and the loss of about 75% of our current investment values. Funds to support Reduce-It will still be tight, after this secondary, and you'd be stuck waiting for 4 years to find out if you can get something back. Management stuttered through today's call and were lucky there was no real financial analyst on the line to question how Reduce-It could possibly be funded from current V sales. I found the nervous answers from mgt today anything but reassuring. I would dump on any reasonable run-up and hope (and pray) said run-up happens before news of dilution and reverse.
For the record, I think current management will not survive the coming secondary but that's of little comfort to those who have lost everything.
This has been the biggest f-up in my investing career.
The only purpose for a CC I can see is to gently prepare investors for the possibility of another secondary and the unfortunate destruction of any potential shareholder return. We're 4 years away from the expected announcement of the Reduce-It results. That's at least $400M cash outflow, unless mgt decide to bring their remuneration in line with similar small biotechs. They have $210M debt and $150M cash and a possible $25M a year contribution from Vascepa. That means they'll need $75 p.a. from somewhere unless debt can be raised to $500M. The numbers just don't work so the CC may give us an idea of where the funds will come from.
You live in a very upbeat world. How do I apply for entrrance? In my world, we have to live with reality. Can you believe it? I remember a Startrek episode form many years ago, where the intrepid crew meet a life form, not subject to the certainties of linear time. This race find it difficult to understand how any species can live with the certainty of old age and death, all arriving in linear timeframe that cannot be avoided. If they find that concept difficult, they're very lucky they never became AMRN shareholders, where punishment is issued on a much more regular basis!
Well, it has come to pass. The FDA has refused to undo its mistake.
We now need to consider how Reduce-It can be funded. Assuming the pps stays above $1, 100% dilution would provide the funding needed. From history, nnfortunately, I don't berlieve AMRN management will be too worried about the effects of yet another secondary on its shareholders. That's one of the problems owning stock in a company with a shareholder unfriendly BOD * mgt.
Amazing that an SA article, admittedly a well-written piece, can knock 10% of the market cap.
I tend to agree that FDA will not reverse itself.
The question for longs is this:- How bad will the dilution, needed to see Reduce-It to results, be and will it be possible to recover our investment here? If you think the funding can be found without completely wiping out common, then the thing to do is average down after the FDA refuses to correct its mistake in withdrawing the Anchor SPA.
If i were not already nursing huge paper losses, I think I'd walk away.
If the FDA can pull the SPA on Anchor, they can also pull it on Reduce-It and every other trial out there. These small biotechs are therefore precarious invesments moving forward. You can lose, even when you get the science right.
If the technical folks at Nuance invented an elixir that bestowed eternal life, management would still screw up marketing and execution. The current leadership at Nuance could not organize a #$%$-up in a brewery.
Only options are:- sell the company or get new leadership and start the recovery process.
It's that simple.
Insider Transactions Reported - Last Two Years
Date Insider Shares Type Transaction Value*
Jun 12, 2014 ERICSON WILLIAM W.
45,875 Indirect Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $5.97 per share. 273,873
Jun 10, 2014 ERICSON WILLIAM W.
68,921 Indirect Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $5.21 per share. 359,078
Dec 12, 2013 HUNKAPILLER MICHAEL
55,087 Direct Purchase at $4.16 per share. 229,161
Dec 11, 2013 HUNKAPILLER MICHAEL
44,913 Direct Purchase at $4.10 per share. 184,143
Nov 21, 2013 HUNKAPILLER MICHAEL
200,000 Direct Purchase at $3.61 per share. 722,000
You'd think that after contributing to a partial cure for Malaria that Agenus' shareholders would be entitled to some scrap but it appears their 95% losses are now cast in concrete.
Hopefully our latest batch of posters are now more familiar with the pattern. When there's a sudden pps advance, you sell, then sit back and wait for the pps to return to normal to replenish your shares. If we all try to help each other we may learn something in the process.
" Its a long term stock without news it can drift lower and u keep adding."
If you really thing the long-term outlook is good, a better idea might be to wait 'till it stops falling and starts advancing and then start adding. It's almost certain it will drift back to the $2.50 range in the next 3 to 6 months. Waiting for that entry point would reduce your losses if AGEN continues to deliver nothing, as it has done for 15 years now.
The pattern is slightly changed. It now looks like it may take 2 days to eliminate the morning's exuberance. Who would have thunk AGEN could hold 25% of a gain for a whole day! as Bob Dylan once wrote:- "The times they are a changing.", and just when Garo had swapped his options for hard, cold cash salary.