Et's try to stick with the fundamentals and leave the tea leaves analysis to crystal ball operators. Trade ideas crystal ball seems like a cheap model to me.
The guys in the money who bought under 90c. These guys go home to the missus and declare they made money on AMRN. That's a rarity. It would be like telling the missus you did were on your way to the moon, had a slight problem with the oxygen cans, and then decided to do a low moon orbit the gather the momentum to get back to Earth - no biggie!
Indeed, that's a bit like the logic employed over on Fox:- 1 plus 2 cannot be 3 because 3 is an odd number! Amarin will succeed because if it fails we'll be wiped out!
We could go on forever with these 'logical' arguments but reality will not change.
That makes no sense.
Perhaps you meant to say something like:- "The reality is you sound like a broken record."
Notice how it now makes sense. We've got to try to help one another to improve post quality whenever feasible!
Unfortunately, the reality of shareholder wipe-out in a dilution to fund Reduce-It still remains. It's like that scent in Independece Day, when the smoke clears after all the missiles have been fired and the target still remains.
That's the problem with reality, it never goes away!
Why would the de#$%$l dr#$%$g out to Dec 2015? Much more likely to close l#$%$te spring or Summer. There #$%$re no issues here from #$%$ regul#$%$tory perspective. Sh#$%$reholders #$%$re #$%$lso likely to vote for #$%$ de#$%$l th#$%$t gives them #$%$lmost 10% more th#$%$n the m#$%$rket is v#$%$luing the sh#$%$res. It's #$%$lso #$%$ very cle#$%$n de#$%$l from #$%$ fin#$%$nci#$%$l perspective. There's no debt to be restructured #$%$nd, given the size of QCOM, this is chump ch#$%$nge for them. I put the odds of the de#$%$l closing #$%$bove 98%. Therefore the #$%$rbitr#$%$ge is w#$%$y too high. If it's still there come Feb, I'll be #$%$dding sh#$%$res. It's the logic#$%$l thing to do.
CSR is trading in London at 825p. That's a 9% ROI on the QCOM offer. If the deal closes by June 2015, that's an 18% ROI annualized. Clearly the market sees risk that QCOM will not go though with the deal.
Has anyone seen anything that might support that outcome?
That's a good one. The success that's coming is just too big so they'll need to partner with someone to mange it!
And to think, back here on Earth, we're all wondering how Amarin will fund Reduce-It without wiping out shareholders in the dilution!
following the Vytorin euphoria, raising the funds for Reduce-it might only mean 50% dilution.
Maybe time to go long at that point.
Hold off 'till then, we could easily plop back under 90c as well.
So we're back to the obvious question again. Where does Amarin get the funding for the 2016, 2017, and 2018?
Boundbrook, you sound like a fella who might know, would you care to share with the board how you see Reduce-It being funded?
My opinion is that the dilution needed will leave current shareholders with less that 10% in the company if they're lucky and with a lot less if not.
Reduce-It may or may not work out. If it does not work out, all is lost. if it does work out, then the funding of it will have wiped out current shareholders.
Therefore, the ONLY logical thing for current shareholders is to terminate reduce-It right now. There's just no way to win this one.
PS: Could you point me to where I insulted anyone. I'd like to correct that mistake.
Let me try to simplify the situation for you all.
Without reducing current debt, there are approx 3 years of funding needed to see Reducit-It to a conclusion, 2016, 2017 and 2018 when we may hope to get an FDA decision if everything goes well.
Amarin's current market cap is around $165m. That is about the level of the additional funding needed.
This means that to secure this funding, Amarin's BOD has absolutely no choice but to offer the company, on a plate, to whoever might be willing to supply the funding. When that happens the company is then owned by the entity supplying the funds to complete Reduce-It. Current shareholders then have no ownership stake. They lose everything. Amarin's BOD has a fiduciary responsibility to current shareholders but they're going to ignore that responsibility. How can they do that? It's very simple. They have a directors' insurance policy which covers them from liability when they abandon Amarin shareholders. The irony of the situation is this:- It is the shareholders who pay the premium fort the directors insurance policy. So, shareholders need to understand that Amarin BOD are going to toss shareholders overboard. There's nothing you can do after the fact. You either act now or you lose everything.
If there's a simpler way to put this, I'd love to hear it. I'm tired of the nonsense from hopeful longs. This is beyond clear and yet longs cannot comprehend what's happening.
If they canned Reduce-It and concentrated on the current indication, AMRN could be worth $2.50 almost immediately. With a strong marketing push, sales could easily double, pushing the stock to around $5.
IMHO, the BOD should be sued now for force them to represent current shareholders. Continuing Reduce-It means completely wiping out current shareholders in the coming capital raise. The BOD knows this so it should be possible to force them to adopt a path that would allow the shareholders they're supposed to represent to survive.
Here are the people you need to contact. In their desire to get to Reduce-It results,they have completely abandoned their fiduciary responsibility to current Amarin shareholders. That leaves them exposed to a suit.
Jan van Heek,
John Thero, and
Joseph S. Zakrzewski, the primary culprit in this whole disaster.
Unemployment keeps improving and consumers are feeling good.
There must be something we could do to support the idea that Obama is a failed president.
I've got it:- Let's pretend the unemployment number is bogus. We could pretend the number is impacted by people aging out of the work force - the baby boomers starting to retire.
It's simple really. Here's some parallel logic we can use:-
1 plus 2 = 3 but, as we all know, 3 is an odd number! This proves the hypothesis that 1 plus 2 = 3 is false.
Unemployment is now 5.8% but since some people left the force, this proves the rate is not 5.8%
Such is the stupidity bandied about in the Fox Echo Chamber.
After making many millions selling while telling shareholders he had more potential buyers than employees, these purchase now may represent insurance os sorts in case he winds up being sued. $50k or $60K seems like a small price to pay to convince a jury that he still believed in the company's prospects even after dumping all his shares.
In deciding to continue Reduce-It without the funds needed, and without the capacity to borrow those funds, the only option left is to allow the funders of Reduce-It assume ownership of Amarin. Even then the current debt holders will have to be given something to cooperate but, make no mistake, this path leaves no possibility whatsoever for the the survival of current shareholders.
Shareholders would do well to petition the BOD, which supposedly represents their interests, to put an end to Reduce-It immediately. Failure to terminate Reducit-It means the termination of current shareholders. Your BOD knows this. The path they've chosen is a direct violation of their statutory obligation to protect the rights of shareholders.
"Until they actually do something, like spend their own money to buy 100s of thousands of shares, "
They're not going to do that. They know as well as many of us, those shares are going to be worthless once they announce the secondary. The good news is they're not stupid! However they are planning on wiping out shareholders and Wall Street is not dumb, at least not always.
I had hoped to encourage shareholders to canvas AMRN mgt/bod to can Reduce-It. Once the FDA rescinded the anchor SPA, that was the one. and only, hope left for shareholders. Amarin management are fully aware of this. They fully realize that the only way they can get to Reduce-It data is to sacrifice current shareholders. It was the responsibility of current shareholders to understand what was happening and stop it. They failed and now they must pay with the remnants of their investment. I'm not familiar with Parrnett83 I'm afraid. I don't read many posts here.