a dilution, which is highly likely, will result in a 1 for 20 reverse split and the loss of about 75% of our current investment values. Funds to support Reduce-It will still be tight, after this secondary, and you'd be stuck waiting for 4 years to find out if you can get something back. Management stuttered through today's call and were lucky there was no real financial analyst on the line to question how Reduce-It could possibly be funded from current V sales. I found the nervous answers from mgt today anything but reassuring. I would dump on any reasonable run-up and hope (and pray) said run-up happens before news of dilution and reverse.
For the record, I think current management will not survive the coming secondary but that's of little comfort to those who have lost everything.
This has been the biggest f-up in my investing career.
Amazing that an SA article, admittedly a well-written piece, can knock 10% of the market cap.
I tend to agree that FDA will not reverse itself.
The question for longs is this:- How bad will the dilution, needed to see Reduce-It to results, be and will it be possible to recover our investment here? If you think the funding can be found without completely wiping out common, then the thing to do is average down after the FDA refuses to correct its mistake in withdrawing the Anchor SPA.
If i were not already nursing huge paper losses, I think I'd walk away.
If the FDA can pull the SPA on Anchor, they can also pull it on Reduce-It and every other trial out there. These small biotechs are therefore precarious invesments moving forward. You can lose, even when you get the science right.
If only we could get a hold of you and really express our feelings, I think that might help us. If i were you I'd run along!
that this stock is worthless unless Reduce-It is stopped.
Stopping Reduce-It would likely put the company at the value of the current indication which is around the $2.50.
Continuing Reduce-It , which means wiping out current shareholders to get the funds needed, means the share has no value. It's worth exactly zero and we're not that far from there now.
"... where it's money for nothing and chicks for free....."
I'm in a similar position to Joe Z. I was aware of the free money but nobody mentioned the chicks! I'll be talking to my HR rep first thing in the morning. Hopefully this can be back-dated!
My condolences on your short position,
The key fact here is:- " The Company also reported booking orders for 16 PacBio RS II instruments during the period, ending the quarter with 20 instruments in backlog."
It would appear their demand for the RS II just doubled quarter over quarter and was 60% above what many of hoped for. Another few quarters with that sort of growth and we might be chasing ILMN!
" a successful completion to the Reduce-It study"
is ONLY possible if funding is found. Whoever provides that funding will own Amarin 100%. Why is this difficult to understand? It's simple finance. It's happened hundreds of time of Wall Street.
The only option for current shareholders is to abandon reduce-It ASAP. If we do that we might get up to $3.50 a share back in a year or 2. If we don't, it is close to 100% certain we'll get nothing.
We shall see what the shorts are made of!
After months, it finally breaks thru the $16.60 barrier on big volume. hitting 17.70 and it's immediately pulled back under the $16.60 level again.
Very strong probability on manipulation on this issue - especially when one considers recent option bets.
The SEC needs to take a peek at the option trader involved methinks.
"Until they actually do something, like spend their own money to buy 100s of thousands of shares, "
They're not going to do that. They know as well as many of us, those shares are going to be worthless once they announce the secondary. The good news is they're not stupid! However they are planning on wiping out shareholders and Wall Street is not dumb, at least not always.
as most now understand they'll soon be wiped out. The decision to continue Reduce-It is a decision to wipe-out current shareholders. The market is now catching up with that reality. My guess is that Amarin will not tells about the secondary until we're at 25c and and it's too late for everyone. Once current shareholders are gone, and new capital is available, no doubt amarin management will pump up the new holders in anticipation of reduce-It data. The thing that I find frustrating, though not surprising, is that current shareholders refused to see the writing on the wall and insisted on walking over the cliff with their fellow lemmings.
Ah well, so be it, good riddance to bad rubbish.
That's a good one. The success that's coming is just too big so they'll need to partner with someone to mange it!
And to think, back here on Earth, we're all wondering how Amarin will fund Reduce-It without wiping out shareholders in the dilution!
"Pacific Biosciences of California, Inc., (PACB) announced that SLPC has established a new genomics facility with 1,500 square meters of laboratory space in the Tianjin #$%$ Li Lake Technology Park, dedicated to using PacBio Single Molecule, Real-Time (SMRT(R)) Sequencing as the major sequencing platform for its translational medicine research projects.
"Our goal is to become an innovative high-tech enterprise," stated founder and CEO of SLPC, Dr. Zhang Yaozhou. "I believe that PacBio's platform provides the most complete and accurate sequencing data, and we are committed to applying this technology toward the improvement of human health." SLPC purchased four PacBio RS II Sequencing Systems earlier this year and recently installed them at their newly dedicated facility. The company ultimately intends to focus on applications such as molecular-based approaches for early diagnosis of cancers, disease recurrence control and drug efficacy evaluation."
After making many millions selling while telling shareholders he had more potential buyers than employees, these purchase now may represent insurance os sorts in case he winds up being sued. $50k or $60K seems like a small price to pay to convince a jury that he still believed in the company's prospects even after dumping all his shares.
The only purpose for a CC I can see is to gently prepare investors for the possibility of another secondary and the unfortunate destruction of any potential shareholder return. We're 4 years away from the expected announcement of the Reduce-It results. That's at least $400M cash outflow, unless mgt decide to bring their remuneration in line with similar small biotechs. They have $210M debt and $150M cash and a possible $25M a year contribution from Vascepa. That means they'll need $75 p.a. from somewhere unless debt can be raised to $500M. The numbers just don't work so the CC may give us an idea of where the funds will come from.
From a shareholder perspective, the only option left appears to be to shut Reduce-It down. To try to complete it means losing everything. Remember the final scene in Armageddon. Bruce Wilis is left sitting on that big rock, heading towards Earth, with the triggerring device in his hand. He has just one option, and while execution of that option will benefit others, it means the certain end for Bruce. In the current horror movie called Amarin, the shareholders are now in the that final Bruce Wilis position. It's going to blow up for certain and no escape is possible. Sad but somebody may benefit eventually from Vascepa. The rock we're sitting on has the letters FDA edged onto it!
They needed to explain how Reduce-It is to be funded to have any chance to stop the erosion of the pps. They essentially said they hoped V sales would increase to cover the costs. Unfortunately the market severly discounts 'hope' as a business solution.
I'm afraid we need new management.