Oxford Resource Partners, L.P. Message Board
-
Exactly. Long term it may be replaced. But short term i.e. 3 years not a chance. Til then every single short and naysayer on the planet is screaming destruction of the industry. That's the exact time I want to go long. Coal will still be around in 5 years. Catch the ride up while you can because it will have a few nice sector runs before the final death blow.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
-
U took a loss at $14 and now want to hit the "sell button". I have never been one to day trade or even trade something for a one week trade unless I have a tight stoploss. Even then I lose money because daytrading is a fools' game and in the long run everyone loses when daytrading.
Techically WLT is broke, Fundamentally it's got negative cash flow. However, with a 720M market cap and history of bouncing back in sector rotations I feel this is an overshoot to the downside just like $141 was an overshoot to the upside. Can this go to $6? Sure but I am not about to try and pick a bottom. I will buy a little more here at $11 just like I did at $16 and hold it for 2 years. In the end we'll see how much I make.
Just because you sold at $14 and are emotional and want this to dive to $6 or $8 is comical. You better hope you are lucky to get it.Sentiment: Strong Buy
-
we may see the entire float in volume in 2 days. From a market cap of 8B to a market cap of 720M (PPS $140 to $11). Regardless of EPS and cash flow this is one heck of an overshoot. I think the assets alone make this a compelling opportunity here. Met coal will still be used and steel will still be made.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
-
the stock nearly ran 100% from 5 to 10. So if you "timed" it perfect which is near impossible you still made more money long than any short did. The fact is cycles happen and we are nearing the end of this coal bear cycle. Regardless of negative cash flows and EPS. The sector will rotate to positive and when it does every short will be rolling over themselves covering at higher highs.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
-
Not a chance it goes brankrupt within the next 4 years. Now if we go back into a depression or recession and WLT is cash flow negative for 2 to 3 years then yes there is a chance, but then odds are many stocks will trade real low.
Facts:
1.) WLT has 560M in cash/revolver combined and 2.6B debt
2.) WLT debt isn't due until 2015 or later
3.) WLT didn't suspend their dividend and has historically paid it even through hard times
4.) WLT insiders bought about a month ago
5.) WLT has over 5B in assets and that's even with met coal trading at 5 year lows
Could WLT go lower? Sure, but you have to ask yourself this when investing? Is 750M in market cap a steal for walter (which is almost half that of ANR's)? I personally believe both ANR and WLT are steals at these prices due to the assets and likelyhood of both companies easily weathering the storm for years to come. Once coal rebounds and it will regardless of what all the naysayers say coal is not even close to dead. Walter overshot to $140 during a bullish cycle, now it's overshooting to $12 in a bearish cycle. If you are an investory this is exactly when you want to get in on the upcoming coal cycle which will happen in the next 2 years.Sentiment: Strong Buy
-
At this piont there aren't any longs left and any that are left are just new to the game. Eventually a new long will time bottom perfectly that's always the case. The short play was over $50 ago. U may make another $4.00 on this, but there are plenty of other playgrounds to play in. Have fun though. The more short the more fuel for the fire when the coal sector rally's this fall.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
- Reply to
Headfake after headfake for the past few years where do we go from here?
by ejtrewni •Jun 12, 2013 1:42 PMAt some point you just have to take a risk sammy although I do agree trend is your friend and 99% of the time it never pays to buy 52 week low stocks or hated sectors. With that said like I mentioned in my first post. The sector has been bearish for a goo 2 years and there has been a few good flush outs already. Timing bottom is impossible but nibbling in then adding more when the sector shows strength for 2 to 3 months might be the most prudent to do. At this point even bulls appear to be giving up.
GMCR, FSLR, ESI, NFLX, many solar stocks. The list goes on if you caught the ever so dangerous bottoms and didn't get scared out you made real good coin. I for one believe coal is a stronger sector than solar and coal will stick around. I believe a turn in the sector will happen within the next 6 months. Anyone else who has any thoughts feel free to post em. Thanks!Sentiment: Strong Buy
-
Do we pull a solar sector? One final massive flush before the 3 to 5x bagger in the sector? Or has this flush been big enough already since most coal companies are already crushed the past 2+ years? I personally believe the sector turns around by 2014 if not sooner. When it turns is the key question. I am long CLF/ANR/WLT and thinking of adding some ACI, but not a big fan of chasing 52 week lows until the sector can prove to me it's bottomed for once and not headfake. I'd rather buy the sector when it stops headfaking and holds gains for a few months. Anyway tell me your thoughts please?
-
They upgrade at $140 and downgrade at $15. It's what they do, basically do the opposite and you make money. They are upgrading TSLA up at $110 ROFL. It's the funniest thing I have seen. Don't listen to anything but your own research. Ask yourself is a $900M market cap justifiable for WLT which is around where it stands now? I know my answer is a definitive yes and I have my research to back it up. GL don't let them scare you. They want to cover down here they might drive it down to $12 or lower, but timing bottom is impossible. Hold a small position then add later when the trend changes.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
- Reply to
Decent size bid/ask ranges we will likely see volatility both up and down....
by ejtrewni •Jun 6, 2013 9:51 AMYes but they won't go down without a fight, however I beleive we are nearing the end of a bearish coal cycle. I also think the market is going to tank hard, but that doesn't mean coal can't rally. Remember coal tanked during the entire bull market. It can very well fool many and rally when the market is correcting. In any case It's worth a gamble here if you got the guts to sit out a small position and then add bigger positions once the techicals say so. Eventually I want 5k shares of this. But I refuse to load up until I see the trend change on a weekly/monthly chart. Coal has essentially been in a bear market for 3 years. I think the cycle is reversing sometime this year probably before we expect it to.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
-
in the near future. The shorts who have driven this down for a few years want every retail long out and want to cover so they will keep the mind games of up and down and up and down. Sometimes I am seeing 5 to 8 cent bid/ask ranges. Don't dabble here if you can't handle some crazy movement yesterday's spike was the beginning. I am long a small position and will watch this diligently. If we bust past the 200 day and 50 day and techicals change and we close nicely in the mid 20's I will add more. Let the market tell you where bottom is!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
-
it has overshot below the daily lower bollinger band so if my stop is taken out who cares it's worth a gamble here. If not I will hold it for a trade back to mid 20's. We'll see which way the market makers want it.
-
We will not eclipse the highs yesterday in the S&P. We will pullback at least 30, most likely 60 to 90 S&P points from here before going higher again with a headfake back to 1660. Don't be pigs and cover your UVXY shorts. Longs in UVXY you will have short term rewards shortly.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
-
Some retailers will not get in until a small pullback of 3 to 5%. So the yhave to do that then run the market back to new highs to get some in. Running directly up 200 points will not get all the fish reeled in they want. A mini correction will happen then a run to news highs then the big correction will happen in the fall.
Disclosure: Short the SPY via 2015 options. Also shorts various stocks. -
It will happen within the next year.... A few fake selloffs down to the low 1500's then back above 1630 maybe even 1700 S&P. Keep head faking for a few months. Then take her down hard and fast with the strongest bear wave you have ever witnessed. I just hope you are ready for reality once it sets in. I know I will be.
Disclosure: Short the market via options January 2015. Also shorts LULU and many other bloated pigs. -
It's a shame we live in a day and age where it's not even a market any more. It's just a manipulated piece of garbage. The economy and market cannot work on it's own. It needs to be propped up by the Fed and others to make things "appear" like everything is great when it actually isn't.
They will real in every retailer and force every short to cover. Then and only then will the market come back to reality. Mark my words this market will retrace at least 60% from the 2009 lows so S&P 1000 will be here within the next few years if not earlier. Sad thing is 99% of the people will lose their savings and most of the bears won't even be a part of the ride down.
Take care all, if you are going long here with the exception of specific stocks that justify it then you are just a sheep ready to be slaughtered. -
Nice pull back from 20.xx to 17.xx then a healthy move back up. Good chance at retesting the 200 day moving average.
-
we know uvxy is always a short and the market is going to new highs daily. We know decay and roll over kills this ETF. We know the trend is always down. However all good things come to an end even a bullish market or stock that is loved (i.e. AAPL or CLF). Once that trend ends (AAPL 50% correction), (CLF 80% correction) the big question is will all the people who have black listed this ETF and have been made believer cange their mind and go long uvxy or short XIV?
You see the market makers want every single short and bear out of this market. They don't want you making money on the inevitable crash and it will come. Once the crash is under way the question is will you have the guts to buy uvxy or short the S&P or will you continue to believe every pull back is just a buy and hold like they are programming you to believe? It will be interesting to see how many people actually make money when the big bear hits, I bet it's not many. Fasten your seatbelts because it will happen before September.
Disclosure: I am short the SPY with options and short many stocks such as LULU. Will be monitoring the vix for a breakout then will short the XIV or buy UVXY once I get a buy signal. -
The actual share count is 23M. The Float is 14.6M so yahoo is correct. The shares short is 8.5M. You can also find the share count and float information on the company website under investor relations and SEC filings of the quarterly reports.
You will notice how fast this moves up and down there is no support or resistance in this area. bids/asks are sometimes as much as 20 cents apart. The market maker wants to cover as much as he can within the past year and a half and probably for the next months or so. They will keep rattling the cage with moves and making you think the world is ending in this stock. Don't trust anything but your research. Don't fall for market maker or CNBC schemes. Trust only the facts. You probably shouldn't even be listening to what I say, good luck!Sentiment: Strong Buy
-
Shares245 you are comical. Longs are up 80% from $12. I bought down there while holding a core position. Sold some at $19.22 yesterday. I don't know how any long needs a reality check that bought within the past month. My 75% gain is already banked. Watch and learn shorty. The short play was over a month ago. Move on or get destroyed. Retail shorts like you are so easy to feast on. The stock can't go up every day, keep trying to short it though you will just fuel the fire.
Sentiment: Strong Buy