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EASTMAN KODAK CO Message Board

ekretiree01 78 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 30, 2015 6:40 PM Member since: Dec 30, 2005
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  • Reply to

    The big short

    by jpnmqrtn Jan 30, 2015 4:27 PM
    ekretiree01 ekretiree01 Jan 30, 2015 6:40 PM Flag

    On the positive side, the last option for 250K has a strike price of $2.66. Board getting a little skeptic.

  • Reply to

    ekretiree

    by mitk_long Jan 29, 2015 6:49 PM
    ekretiree01 ekretiree01 Jan 30, 2015 9:45 AM Flag

    I reported that Mitek would have a very small loss (data attached). However, I am disappointed in the revenue. It is lower than I expected. They showed 3.7 M in software revenue and I anticipated 4.1M, (20% qtr over qtr), I expected about 33%. . However, they again kept S&M and R&D in check. But, this qtr they were able to control G&A. The 400K reduction in G&A was helpful.

    NOW....

    Most importantly, have to watch the insider sales. Remember, in the past Mr. DeBello has sold over $3M of options and currently controls approx. 530K options. Have to sell before he exercises.
    .
    .
    .
    .

    IMO, Mitek will report the a very small loss in 1st Qtr, 2015 with the following estimates:

    Software Revenue...4.1M or 4.2M (deferred income was only 2.8M last qtr)
    Maintenance.............1.8M

    Revenue.....................5.9M (this will be approx. +33% qtr over qtr growth)

    cost of software.............200K
    cost of maint..................300K
    S&M..............................1.6M (1.2M reported last qtr versus 1.65M trend)
    R&D..............................1.5M (1.3M reported last qtr versus 1.6M trend)
    G&A...............................2.6M (almost 50% of revenue)

    Expenses....................6.2M (I figure S&M plus R&D will return to historic levels)

    If they somehow keep the S&M and R&D at last qtr's level, they will show a 300K profit. IMO

  • Reply to

    Impressive is all I can say.

    by mitk_long Jan 27, 2015 7:56 PM
    ekretiree01 ekretiree01 Jan 28, 2015 12:07 AM Flag

    Mitk_long,

    IMO, this addition is not that impressive. See some of the history on Viisage and SensAble. Try these links....

    VIISAGE TECHNOLOGY, INC. SECURITIES LITIGATION

    L-1 Identity Solutions Announces Joint Filing for Preliminary Approval of Settlement of Viisage Class Action Securities Litigation

    After nearly 20 years, SensAble’s acquisition by North Carolina-based Geomagic—the price wasn’t disclosed, but was rumored to be just a few million dollars—is an unceremonious ending to one of the most intriguing companies of its era.

  • Reply to

    Should I buy the bonds?

    by mikedunn1999 Jan 22, 2015 12:39 PM
    ekretiree01 ekretiree01 Jan 26, 2015 12:37 PM Flag

    private, let's keep this in perspective, Perron has 370K more shares. He sold 7.5%

  • ekretiree01 ekretiree01 Jan 25, 2015 11:34 AM Flag

    Ugh! Sounds like you do not think they can reign in the expenses. What are Bubba's 3 criteria?

  • ekretiree01 ekretiree01 Jan 24, 2015 12:57 PM Flag

    But, not that simple, needs a timeline and change in management style.

    If they turn a profit they will easily see $6, but not immediately. Turning a profit would show that they can control their SG&A which is presently over Seventy Percent of revenue 70%! Probably one of the highest in the software industry. They would have to "reign in" management style, reduce expenses, and use the money for R&D. Get rid of the fluff and stuff.

  • ekretiree01 ekretiree01 Jan 24, 2015 12:56 PM Flag

    Yes!

  • Reply to

    The Missing Gold

    by do_lo_when Jan 23, 2015 11:03 AM
    ekretiree01 ekretiree01 Jan 23, 2015 5:24 PM Flag

    Do, a 30% variability is statistically within the realm of probability considering process variability, ore variability, weather conditions, experience, etc. Especially in what is a "start up / ramp up" situation.

    It could have been a 30% increase. Have to wait and see.

  • ekretiree01 ekretiree01 Jan 23, 2015 3:47 PM Flag

    Bump

    IMO, Mitek will report the a very small loss in 1st Qtr, 2015 with the following estimates:

    Software Revenue...4.1M or 4.2M (deferred income was only 2.8M last qtr)
    Maintenance.............1.8M

    Revenue.....................5.9M (this will be approx. +33% qtr over qtr growth)

    cost of software.............200K
    cost of maint..................300K
    S&M..............................1.6M (1.2M reported last qtr versus 1.65M trend)
    R&D..............................1.5M (1.3M reported last qtr versus 1.6M trend)
    G&A...............................2.6M (almost 50% of revenue)

    Expenses....................6.2M (I figure S&M plus R&D will return to historic levels)

    If they somehow keep the S&M and R&D at last qtr's level, they will show a 300K profit. IMO

  • Reply to

    Arnold, (once and for all)

    by do_lo_when Jan 21, 2015 9:32 AM
    ekretiree01 ekretiree01 Jan 22, 2015 6:51 PM Flag

    Do, It is very possible that he own many shares of AAL. Only couple of years ago AMR was in bankruptcy and shares were down to 20-30 cents per.

  • Reply to

    The New Normal?

    by twelve12pm Jan 22, 2015 10:56 AM
    ekretiree01 ekretiree01 Jan 22, 2015 12:01 PM Flag

    The bonds they purchased were:

    17M of the May, 2019 350M @ 12.5% presently trading at 97.8 for an effective return of 13.2%

    15.9M of the June 2018 200M @ 7.375% presently trading at 79.5 for an effective return of 15.4%

    Now, the Dec. 2017 350M @ 9.75% is presently trading at 104.3 for an effective interest return of 8.1%

    Not bad, not bad at all. Makes sense to me.

  • Reply to

    Crusher "quotes"

    by ekretiree01 Jan 21, 2015 8:58 PM
    ekretiree01 ekretiree01 Jan 22, 2015 11:31 AM Flag

    That's what I thought also, 22M operating expense included additional crushing and 15M capex is for studies. Seems high for studies.

  • Reply to

    Crusher "quotes"

    by ekretiree01 Jan 21, 2015 8:58 PM
    ekretiree01 ekretiree01 Jan 21, 2015 9:23 PM Flag

    Dragon, trying to think long term. The mine life is 22 years. TC is talking 75M for the crusher to obtain 4%. Earlier reports indicated they need the secondary crusher to get from 50,000 to 60,000 (20%)

  • Reply to

    Crusher "quotes"

    by ekretiree01 Jan 21, 2015 8:58 PM
    ekretiree01 ekretiree01 Jan 21, 2015 9:04 PM Flag

    Temporary costs have to be pretty high to justify a secondary crusher which will obtain a 2,500 tpd (4%).

  • ekretiree01 by ekretiree01 Jan 21, 2015 8:58 PM Flag

    "Temporary crushing will be utilized during 2015 and, as a result, management expects to reach approximately 60,000 tpd by year-end 2015."

    ""Given the current market conditions, we do not believe it would be prudent to move forward with the capital investment as this time," said Mr. Perron. "We will take this opportunity to optimize the design and cost estimate for the secondary crusher. Despite some challenges with the winter conditions at the start of this year, we remain focused in our efforts to complete the ramp-up phase at Mount Milligan and are confident that we will reach a rate of approximately 60,000 tpd by year-end 2015."

    "Once the secondary crusher is installed and commissioned, throughput is expected to be approximately 62,500 tpd," added Mr. Perron."

    Mr. Perron did not mention how much the temporary crushing will cost to achieve the 60,000 tpd by year-end 2015.

  • ekretiree01 ekretiree01 Jan 20, 2015 9:34 AM Flag

    Avoiding a tender offer for the bonds.

    See,

    (Evaluating strategic debt buybacks milton)

    Its a pdf file, see page 3.

  • ekretiree01 ekretiree01 Jan 19, 2015 11:59 PM Flag

    Ultra, The SEC rules on Tender Offer could be the key restriction applying.

  • ekretiree01 by ekretiree01 Jan 19, 2015 11:34 AM Flag

    Long, did get a chance to look at the Fed Survey and estimate some business usage?

    "Long, the data from the report indicates approx. 1.0 to 2.5B C2B checks in 2012. The tough part is estimating how many of the checks will utilize "Mitek's mobile check deposit" versus the banks scanner system. I would assume the very small businesses will use the picture taking technique. The larger businesses will probably use the scanner system. Banks probably want the scanner system because they get a monthly / yearly fee. Like I mentioned in a earlier post, just google (business remote deposit capture with the bank name) and you will see what is being offered. Give it a try."

    "Mitek will definitely see check usage growth in the next 2-5 years. How much will depend on the new mobile banking apps and payment techniques. There is sufficient consumer and small business checks to show definite growth for the next 2 years."

    "You can look at the data by googling
    (2013 Federal Report Payment Study Detailed)
    It is a pdf file and the parts you want start on page 165.
    The data you are looking for is Exhibit 44, page 168"

  • Reply to

    Shingle

    by do_lo_when Jan 19, 2015 10:26 AM
    ekretiree01 ekretiree01 Jan 19, 2015 11:14 AM Flag

    Hmmm,

    Do lose virtual accent and expand vo-cab-o--arree.

  • Reply to

    What to expect in tuesday's cc

    by arnoldboils Jan 17, 2015 11:52 AM
    ekretiree01 ekretiree01 Jan 17, 2015 1:10 PM Flag

    Was he Navajo?

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