I split my ABT investment in two groups, a long position and a day-trading position which I closed every day. My trading size is between 2000 shares to 5000 shares to absorb the transaction costs. Since Jan 4, 2010, my long position of ABT increased from 54.46 t0 54.52 plus a dividend of $.40 per share. My day-trade position lost $66.14. I am a darn good pro but I cannot beat the market. Forget about ripping profits from day-trading, you have to be very lucky to hit the jackpot.
You are wrong about CSCO. CSCO does sell its networking products in Best Buy, Circuit City, CompUSA under the brand of Linksys. I have never considered CSCO as a tech power house but a finance and marketing power house. It makes money from the old fashion way, leasing and financing. It is incompetent in doing reseach. Therefore, it needs to acquire small tech companies every quarter. CEO and CFO of CSCO know how to cook the book. They exclude the acquisiton preimum when they announce the earnings. I call this as "permanent one time charge." It was a very successful strategy to create the bubbles. If CSCO has done in-house research. It would have to recognize as R&D expenses and reduce the earning per share.
If Intel Inside were not a good motto, Intel would have stopped the program long-time ago. Companies spent billion of ad dollars every year to build and refresh their brands. In 1995, a math professor from a small college discovered bugs in Pentium chips. At the beginning, Intel tried to cover up because the chances of being affected by those chips are extremely rare. However, the media made this one as a big issue. TV networks and cable news channels made this one in their headlines. Late night shows made this one as a joke. Intel then reluctantly recalled the defective chips for anyone who asked. In the process, Intel received free advertisement from the media. Pentium became a household name. AMD was squeezed out. Intel reaped huge amount of profit from becoming a household name company. Intel has never changed the Pentium trademark since then. Intel Inside slogan and Pentium trademark moved Intel to a new level. If you don�t believe TI inside and DLP trademark will benefit TXN, you are just too na�ve. As a techie, you simply underestimate the intelligence of an average Joe.
I have conversation with many highly educated people about DLP TVs. Sadly no one knows that TXN makes the DLP chips. If TXN's management does not try to differentiate its DLP chips from other chips, they will become commodity chips. When the patents expired, TXN will not benefit from the brand and trademark.
Nike tennis shoes and Wal-Mart tennis shoes are all made in China from the same factory. Nike shoes command premium price. Wal-Mart shoes can�t.
No, I subscribed digital cable. The cable company provides the set top box. It has 700plus channels. It ain't make no different to me. I only watch news channels. DLP can sharpen the picture quality on the regular analog or digital channels. The real HDTV brocasting from CBS or Discover Channel provides even sharper picture. There is no good reason buying CRT HDTV or Plasma TV. DLP is the way to go. Everybody knows that Intel provides CPU for PCs but few people in main street know that TXN provides the chips for DLP.
I just bought a Samsung DLP TV. I am surprised that the quality of picture is better or equal to Plasma TVs. Although DLP TVs are still expensive, they are half the price of a compatible Plasma TV. Samsung believes that the price of a DLP TV can drop significantly in the next two or three years. At that time CRT projection TV will be replaced by DLP projection TVs. Like LCD TVs, DLP TVs last twice longer than Plasma TVs and consume 50% less of energy. DLP projection TVs will be mainstream TVs for home theaters systems. Moreover, if all the cinemas convert their projectors into DLP systems, they will contribute more to TXN�s bottom line.
TXN will benefit in the conversion process significantly. I think that the market has not priced this factor in the stock yet.
Apparently you are a sick mind, dirty Chinese. My colleagues are well-to-do middle class American couples. They are very religious and compassionate. These girls were abandoned by their parents in dump yards. If Americans are compassionate, thousands of those baby girls would die. You are not a human being.
Many of those Chinese baby girls were adopted by Americans. Two of my colleagues just adopted three beautiful Chinese baby girls.
�China historically has been an inward-looking empire, not one with aspirations of world domination�
This is not ture. When China was strong, she frequently bullied her neighbors: Korea, Japan, Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, Burma as well as Turkeystan. If China had learned western technologies in 19th century, the history would have been quite different.
I have not met a Vietnamese who is enchanted with the Chinese empires. Vietnamese told me many stories about their ancestors bravely resisted the aggression of Chinese empires.
I do not imply that China will be an aggressor when she becomes an economic and military superpower. However, we cannot change the history.
Scattershooting: You are trying to defense the indefensible bad behavior of Chinese people. Yes, we do have unscrupulous young individuals that use pirated software. However, most of the old giz like myself and the middle class strongly respect the intellectual properties. Corporations, governmental agencies, universities, schools strongly prohibit any pirated software installed in PCs or workstations. The government vigorously enforces the law. My company signed up licensing agreements with several software companies. They gave us one copy of each software. Our IT technicians loaded software to our PCs. Nobody watched us but we paid every copy we loaded in each employee PC. We respect their intellectual properties. They respect our intellectual properties. You have to learn more about the American culture. In China, corporations, universities, schools and governmental agencies all openly use pirated software, books, DVDs etc. Apparently, Chinese government sanctions the piracy.
BTW, All the counterfeited software and merchandises sold in US are smuggled from China. You cannot find counterfieted software in Bestbuy, Wal-Mart. You have to visit some small stores operated by new immigrants to find the counterfeited software. In China, almsot every store sells pirated software.
Following are two excerpts about piracy in China:
�Pirated copies of Windows aren't just sold one at a time on the street. Hundreds are sold at once to Chinese businesses, preloaded on computers made in Chinese factories.
Microsoft has company in its misery, since many foreign companies doing business in China face similar problems. "It is everything: pharmaceuticals, Zippo lighters, circuit boards, you name it. If it can be reverse engineered, it will be," says Thomas Lee Boam, a commercial attach� at the U.S. embassy in Beijing. Cisco filed suit in Texas last month against Huawei Technologies, contending the Chinese tech company copied its router software and sold it as its own. Even cars are copied. You can get a fake Volkswagen made in China�
Sell one operating system to every citizen in China and you could make some real money. But in China software is pirated, not sold legitimately. What's a producer of intellectual property to do?
�Like many U.S. companies, Microsoft is mesmerized by the dream of capturing its share of business here--if only it could overcome some rather monumental barriers. Piracy is rampant: More than 90% of the application software used here comes from illegal copies. It has been only 13 years since the nation adopted its first copyright law, and it later tightened the rules only reluctantly, mostly to win support for its admission to the World Trade Organization. Comfortably in WTO now and enjoying a $30.4 billion trade surplus with the U.S., China scarcely bothers to enforce the laws
Microsoft has tried the belligerent route, suing Chinese companies to stop piracy much as Cisco Systems (nasdaq: CSCO - news - people ) recently did. But those moves have largely backfired, making Microsoft seem a foreign bully. Whenever the Chinese government has been threatened, it has thrown more of its weight behind Linux, the freebie operating system that poses a looming global threat to Windows.
Scattershooting: I welcome strong competitions from China. I just resent that Chinese people do not respect our intellectual properties. 99.99% of computer software installed in China are pirated. 99% of English textbooks used in Chinese universities are pirated. Almost all scientific publications in Chinese libraries are pirated. I heard that the central government subscribed one periodical then photocopied thousands of copies for every university and research institute in the country. 99% of DVD movies, CD music are pirated. Many unscrupulous merchants openly pirated American brand name products. American pharmaceutical companies spent billions of R&D develop new drugs. Chinese pharmaceutical companies just pirated the formulas. Chinese government agencies do not want to enforce the law. Often they also participate in piracy activities.
If China wants to become an economic or military super power, she must chage her behavior. What would you feel if you paid everything to us but we did not want to pay many things to you?
The problem is not made in USA or made in China. The problem is China has no respect to our intellectual properties.
99.99% of computer software installed in China are pirated versions of US software. The piracy is sanctioned by the Chinese government. Individuals, governmental agencies, corporations all openly pirate our software. They buy one copy of a book from US. They then print million copies without paying royalty fees to the authors and publishers. Pirated movies and music are sold in stores openly.
We will not have any trade imbalance against China, if China pays royalty fees to our intellectual properties. This is outrageous. We paid everything we bought. They paid nothing. They just stole.
Worse, our greedy executives are moving R&D tasks to China because they can save up to 80% of R&D cost by hiring cheap Chinese engineers. We are teaching young Chinese engineers state of the art technology while our young techies are unemployed. In five to ten years, we may not have any technology superiority against China.
We cannot compete with cheap Chinese labor. I do not mind that labor intensive industries moving to China. I just do not want to see high-tech, highly skillful jobs move to China too. GWB said China was our competitor. However, we are teaching our competitor every bid of technology to smother us in the future.
China uses the size of her population to lure US corporations investing in China. Sadly, 90% of US corporations are losing money. For example, China has become the second largest PC market in the world but Microsoft only generates $75 million annual sales because nobody is paying for legitimate Microsoft software.
I just sold my first house in Austin for $95,000. I paid $28,950 with $1,500 down in 1976. After I paid commission, fees, I netted $86,500. Over the years, I put in about $20,000. My net gain was above $65,000. Not bad!
Austin's high-tech economy is in depression. My realtor told me that only starter's homes are selling. The upper-middle and upper class homes have very few takers.
When I frist posted in this board in September 1997, TI was at a split-adjusted price of $15. Dow Jones was in 7800s. After 5 years and 5 months. Everything is back to the ground zero. TI ran up to $100. Therefore, it dropped harder, 85%. DOW ran up to 12,000. Therefore it dropped softer, 35%. At that time, I expected TI grew 20% to 30% a year. I have never expected that the stock jumped 100% every year for three years. Isn�t that just a dream?
In 1997, we were in a complete different environment. Everybody was rushing to build Internet, telecom infrastructures. Corporations spent huge money in cleaning Y2K bugs. Tech stocks of any kinds were hot. At that time, nobody can see the end was near. Now we realized that we built too much Internet infrastructures than what we needed. Y2K problem was exaggerated. Indeed, we were probably the only economy went through a huge expansion. Now we all live with the consequence.
Economy is still searching for a direction. I do not expect that TXN, as well as most tech stocks; will be able to go back to the old glorious days soon.
One thing is very alarming: US corporations, including TXN, have quietly moved their R&D operations to India and China. They can cut their development cost by as much as 80% by using talented but low cost Indian and Chinese engineers and programmers. We have surrendered many manufacturing jobs to China. Now we are surrendering technical jobs to India and China. Ironically, President Bush called China as a US competitor. However, we are giving all our know-how to China. It just like TXN gives all the trade secrets and technologies to Motorola.
You must be realistic. The bubbles have burst. Time has changed. The days of a 90% jump of share price over 11 months have been over. People are scare to death. Few people are on margin now. Small investors are out of the market. The big pension funds, insurance companies and mutual funds are carrying the bag. Hedge Funds are accounted for 60% of daily trading activities. If TXN can reach $18 by December 31, 2003, I would say � Oh! My God! Good job! Mission accomplished�
If TXN is still a growth company, it must produce forward earnings of $1.35 for 2004 to deserve $27.50 per share by December 31, 2003. This means that TXN must surpass consensus estimate and revise the guideline significantly for the next three quarters. This is highly unlikely.