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The Blackstone Group L.P. Message Board

el_capitan_of_the_club 46 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 19, 2014 11:27 AM Member since: Aug 21, 2001
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  • el_capitan_of_the_club by el_capitan_of_the_club Sep 19, 2014 11:27 AM Flag

    I think there is some nervousness in the market. They are having very difficult time balancing the order book and opening BABA for trading. If that happens, there will be a lot of issues. I cannot believe that NYSE would actually set the opening day for BABA on the options expiration date. This can cost NYSE big. They'd batter get their act together in a hurry.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • el_capitan_of_the_club el_capitan_of_the_club Sep 19, 2014 11:15 AM Flag

    It is everything else. You gotta wait for the numbers to come out than it is off to the race. This is the same thing as a stock popping once they report an earnings surprise. Just wait and do not panic.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • el_capitan_of_the_club by el_capitan_of_the_club Sep 18, 2014 5:25 PM Flag

    Tax efficiency and share of BABA are cited as the reasons.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • el_capitan_of_the_club by el_capitan_of_the_club Sep 18, 2014 5:23 PM Flag

    Tax efficiency and share of BABA are cited as the reasons.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    VOLUME is puzzling?

    by natty_0ner Sep 18, 2014 4:14 PM
    el_capitan_of_the_club el_capitan_of_the_club Sep 18, 2014 4:21 PM Flag

    That's because the sellers of YHOO this morning were exactly the same people buying it back. Whenever there is a known in the market and the variables are understood, that gives the traders a lot of comfort level to trade the stock, knowing that they can also time and predict the close. This is the oldest game on Wall Street.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • el_capitan_of_the_club by el_capitan_of_the_club Sep 17, 2014 3:54 PM Flag

    All day today brokers made money trading the stock. We are targeting zero for the close.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    When will Brokers close the pre-IPO books

    by firsttestcase Sep 17, 2014 3:16 PM
    el_capitan_of_the_club el_capitan_of_the_club Sep 17, 2014 3:51 PM Flag

    I don't think what happened FB will happen to BABA. This is the main reason why they went with NYSE. What happens on the NYSE situation is that the brokers will own the stock based on their allocation and will mark it to their customers. They have to buy the shares after the close tomorrow. So the money comes of customer's trading account. The brokers right now are making sure that those who got allocated the stock have the money in their account to buy. Some may have access to margin. By Friday morning, if all the stock is sold by the brokers, all trading will happen on the floor. If not, the brokers have the option of selling it out of the house account. Frankly I am expecting the trading to be orderly.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    When will Brokers close the pre-IPO books

    by firsttestcase Sep 17, 2014 3:16 PM
    el_capitan_of_the_club el_capitan_of_the_club Sep 17, 2014 3:23 PM Flag

    The final price will be announced at the close of trading day tomorrow (Thursday). The trading this week is meaningless because people are looking for the opening bid on Friday. Keep in mind that the reason BABA will open higher is because the demand is higher than what is being off offered. Until Friday morning, at the opening, it will be fairly muted. CBOE opens an hour earlier on Friday. The pricing of the options will indicate where YHOO will open. I do realize it is difficult to wait and see, bu it is always like this. When cat's away, mice play!!!!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • el_capitan_of_the_club el_capitan_of_the_club Sep 16, 2014 12:42 PM Flag

    The two do not compare at all. YHOO retains a large part of the share of BABA. YHOO has additional significant assets YHOO-Japan, CASH and a functioning solution that is still delivering a lot of free cash flow. Most importantly, it is a big take-over candidate. Any weakness will bring out the buyers. MSFT is still interesting in YHOO. YHOO does not want to use BING as a search engine. This bothers MSFT a lot. So do not plan on the same thing that happened to 3Com to happen to YHOO. Some adjustment will likely to happen, but not before until at least BABA is in the market for at least 30-45 days.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • el_capitan_of_the_club el_capitan_of_the_club Sep 16, 2014 12:15 PM Flag

    Frankly I would not worry much. There was some selling yesterday across most NASDAQ stocks. Part of this was to raise money for BABA trades on Friday. You are also seeing some sell-off against the option coverage. If you look at the Sept options around the at-the-money calls, the market is expecting YHOO to move up by about $2 by Friday. The option trading on Friday will be through the roof around the 42-45 strikes. If you have the stomach, load on. It is better then betting in Las Vegas. You need iron-clad stomach for that. by the close of trade today we will be slightly up. Tomorrow onward until Friday, you will see YHOO continue to move up. Hang tight. You will be rewarded for your patience.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Interesting. According to the CNBC poll (http://www.cnbc.com/id/101999294?__source=yahoo|finance|headline|headline|story&par=yahoo&doc=101999294), more than 50% of the respondents rate BABA a buy with stock opening over $70. Obviously, this is non-scientific poll, but it gives us some understanding into how the stock will behave. Frankly, when they close the book three days into their dog-and-pony, I had some feelings that BABA can open very high. If this is all credible, I would expect some analysts coming in favor of YHOO even prior to opening. Monday's trade will tell us which way YHOO will go when BABA starts trading.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • el_capitan_of_the_club el_capitan_of_the_club Sep 14, 2014 12:04 PM Flag

    This week will be the best week for YHOO. There are several things YHOO needs to announce. First is what they will do with the BABA proceedings. Will they bring the money to US and keep it outside the country. My suspicion is that they will keep outside the country and not take a hit on the US taxes. Second, YHOO's share of the remaining investment in YHOO. In my opinion, YHOO will run up significantly this week and then it will slow down. We now need to understand what YHOO will be next. Jerry is joining the BABA board and there is next Jerry wants more than being a significant holder in BABA individually. He will definitely figure out a way to merge with YHOO. This frankly makes a lot of sense, We will see how it all pans out.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • el_capitan_of_the_club by el_capitan_of_the_club Sep 10, 2014 12:05 PM Flag

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/alibabas-record-ipo-covered-first-042309106.html

    This only tells me that the IPO will be oversubcribed, which will push the price to the high-end of the $60-66 range. Also, there seems to be a lot of retail interest. I know a lot of people are trying to talk the stock down, but most people will jump on. No one wants to miss this opportunity. This is good news for YHOO. The stock should run up to $43-45 range by the IPO date and possibly high $40's once it opens for trading. Patience will reward the longs.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • el_capitan_of_the_club el_capitan_of_the_club Sep 9, 2014 10:19 PM Flag

    please do not wake up the chickens. In the meantime, back up the truck. Next week, this time YHOO will be much higher than it is now. Today was just a gut check. We did not violate yesterday's support.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    someone wake up marissa

    by kevinb212012 Sep 9, 2014 2:58 PM
    el_capitan_of_the_club el_capitan_of_the_club Sep 9, 2014 3:12 PM Flag

    No. She knows she will make a lot of money with Alibaba. Plus, the board told her to shut up. Once Alibaba goes through, she will need to find a new job.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • el_capitan_of_the_club by el_capitan_of_the_club Sep 8, 2014 5:16 PM Flag

    YHOO closed at its high today. This is a very bullish sign. Expect more of the same for tomorrow--not at the same level as it was today, but more tapered runup.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Alibaba will buy Yahoo.

    by bronx23457 Sep 8, 2014 3:36 PM
    el_capitan_of_the_club el_capitan_of_the_club Sep 8, 2014 5:09 PM Flag

    Any which way, I don't see YHOO surviving alone. They will get bought out eventually. The question is "who". It is way too cheap at the current price. YHOO has the most premium place on the Internet. They are kind of the Google of Portals. I see a potential for YHOO to get to $60-65/share over the next month or so. Too cheap to ignore.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Simple Math

    by nnaik555 Sep 5, 2014 10:48 PM
    el_capitan_of_the_club el_capitan_of_the_club Sep 6, 2014 12:06 PM Flag

    This was exactly my math when I posted the $55 target for YHOO by the BABA trading day. There is a tremendous upside for YHOO over the next several weeks.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • el_capitan_of_the_club el_capitan_of_the_club Sep 6, 2014 12:03 PM Flag

    The company with the market makers price the IPO. Market can only price the IPO when the trading starts.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • el_capitan_of_the_club by el_capitan_of_the_club Sep 6, 2014 12:01 PM Flag

    At the current IPO price of $155B for BABA, YHOO's share of 22.7% is about $35B. YAHOO Japan is valued at about $6B. This is by $2B over YHOO's current market cap. That means that the rest of YHOO is free. It cannot be. There is at least another $7-8B value at minimum. Frankly I am expecting YHOO to tag another $8-9/shr by the trading day.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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