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The Blackstone Group L.P. Message Board

el_capitan_of_the_club 26 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 14, 2014 1:58 PM Member since: Aug 21, 2001
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  • Following up on the announcement from YHOO today regarding the new small business initiative, it is extremely important to note that YELP's clientele is very profitable base for YHOO. Many of the customers on YELP will need this service. We are only scratching the surface on how high YELP could go. Do not listen to the baseless claims on YELP. This is a company to own for the longrun. If they can bought out by YHOO or even GOOG, all the better.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • el_capitan_of_the_club by el_capitan_of_the_club Aug 12, 2014 4:35 AM Flag

    I have been looking at the balance of power in the global internet space. Kept thinking on how the money managers would want to play the BABA IPO. I think given BABA's penetration in China, it would not be a bad idea to move some of the FB investment into BABA. This could cause FP to retreat back to mid-60's. Let me know what everyone thinks on this.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Fodder for the Yahoo Bears!!

    by bee_plus_001 Aug 11, 2014 7:37 PM
    el_capitan_of_the_club el_capitan_of_the_club Aug 12, 2014 4:18 AM Flag

    She is an insider. She needs to sell way before the news. She knows she will not stay around. She has already made her money. I believe there is already a clause in her contract--no golden parachute. So there is no reason she should not sell.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Time to short IBM again

    by el_capitan_of_the_club Jul 28, 2014 3:47 PM
    el_capitan_of_the_club el_capitan_of_the_club Aug 12, 2014 4:14 AM Flag

    Well..if you listen, you'd be happy now.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • el_capitan_of_the_club el_capitan_of_the_club Aug 11, 2014 4:57 PM Flag

    Check out this post on WSJ http://projects.wsj.com/alibaba/
    It explains everything. It is valued between $136B to $250B. Yahoo's share is at 23%. That means that YHOO's share is at $31B to $57B. Based on YHOO's price today (8/11/2014), the total market cap is at $35B. There is a huge amount of unaccounted value. I would not be surprised if Alibaba or Softbank were to come in and gobble up YHOO prior to the IPO. YHOO is dirt cheap at the current level.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • el_capitan_of_the_club el_capitan_of_the_club Aug 11, 2014 3:19 PM Flag

    On a 5-Year basis, BX outperformed SP500 by 40%. That's as best as we can do given the data. We are doing good. No issues. Look forward to your profits for the rest of the year, not the rearview mirror.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Frustrating

    by rationalthought3 Aug 7, 2014 10:11 AM
    el_capitan_of_the_club el_capitan_of_the_club Aug 11, 2014 3:12 PM Flag

    Hang in there. BX is an excellent stock. You will just need to give it some time. Keep in mind they come up or down with news. They have incredible assets, which they are selling through the secondary or IPO in a methodical fashion. This is not a FB or GOOG. You will see BX close around 40 at year-end. It is also a great dividend stock. Right now it is yielding 4.2% vs. 2.4% of treasuries. Given that BX is both a dividend/income stock and a growth stock. It can afford a lower yield than treasuries. At the current level, it should realistically get to $40 easily. They have reported two quarters of accelerated growth. The market is being careful with BX. After the next earnings, it will be off to the races. In summary, Low 30's is a great buying opportunity and on the high-end, we need to clear $35 on high volume. Otherwise, it is a trading range.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • el_capitan_of_the_club by el_capitan_of_the_club Aug 6, 2014 3:15 PM Flag

    1.5x the average volume on an up-day. Two things could happen: 1) new investors are coming on board or 2) it is getting set up for a major leg down. We know the secondary is right around the corner. I would wait for the dust to settle before touching this baby either way. You don't want to chase it and you don't want to take a short position without some directional confirmation.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • el_capitan_of_the_club el_capitan_of_the_club Aug 4, 2014 7:02 PM Flag

    I have more to share with you on this topic. I was just checking that the valuation criteria for YHOO, currently Yahoo Japan is accounted at $5.8B and Alibaba at $14.2B (Really?). If that's true, the market is pricing the total value of Alibaba $57B. We have already heard that Alibaba could be valued as much as $200B. Even at half of that, we are looking at 28% price increase at the current levels, which is equivalent to a $10 jump in price. If Alibaba wants to buy YHOO, the take-out could have 20-25% increase over that, we are talking about $55 entry point into the target price. YHOO will not see these levels again. Too cheap to avoid.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • el_capitan_of_the_club by el_capitan_of_the_club Aug 4, 2014 4:59 PM Flag

    The interest in YHOO keeps growing due to Alibaba IPO. YHOO currently owns 24% of Alibaba. On a realistic basis, YHOO needs to include the 24% stake plus whatever the display/ad business is worth, which I would like to think has to be more than $37B. That's exactly the current market cap. If Alibaba or anyone else wants to buy YHOO, the display/ad business can be worth $15-20B. On those basis, I would think YHOO be worth some where $50-60B. On those basis, I am expecting YHOO to trade up $55-65/share.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • el_capitan_of_the_club el_capitan_of_the_club Jul 30, 2014 6:19 PM Flag

    First obstacle is out of the way. YELP can be profitable given a chance. Now next step in early September when Alibaba goes public. Once YHOO has money to buy YELP, the take-out could be as high as $90-100/shr. A lot of upside ahead of us.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • el_capitan_of_the_club el_capitan_of_the_club Jul 29, 2014 9:09 PM Flag

    No impact on sales now. The stock operates quarterly

  • el_capitan_of_the_club el_capitan_of_the_club Jul 29, 2014 9:08 PM Flag

    Can you answer the question? What's the stock worth?
    You can cut out the rhetoric.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Do you ever wonder how many people there are in US that can afford a $100K car?
    I love the car they make. It is sleek and has a lot of designs stolen from other vehicles (Mercedes stick is for one). Now the real question---what's TSLA worth as a stock?
    Remember you have to separate the company from the stock. Several things we know. The field is getting really crowded. Everyone is into making hybrids and electric cars these days. The pricing power will increasingly go down. I am expecting TSLA to meet the target numbers, but not beat them by an order of magnitude.
    More importantly, the demand in US started tapering off. They have gone to Europe and then China. That tells me that the growth targets based on US alone will not get them to their target.
    The key challenge is in figuring out a way to reduce the battery costs so that they can go into new markets based on lower price points, which in my opinion, is quite a ways off.
    I think we will see TSLA taking a break on Thursday after the earnings. With the overall market direction, they are likely to pull back. There are also concerns around the secondary. It is now or never. Building a $5B battery plant with only $200-300M investment from Panasonic will require a lot of investment from TSLA.
    Bottom-line, be careful with the earnings and guidance on Thursday.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • el_capitan_of_the_club el_capitan_of_the_club Jul 29, 2014 4:10 AM Flag

    That's all you can come up with? Real smart.
    Incidentally there is a law for that in case you get your heads buried in the sand.

  • el_capitan_of_the_club by el_capitan_of_the_club Jul 28, 2014 9:29 PM Flag

    Ichan for months told everyone that HLF was a real company with real earnings. Technically he is right. HFL is a real company with offices and it has earnings too, but they are not genuine. Now what?
    I think Ichan should be accountable under the pump-end-dump clause. He pumped up HLF while he was invested, so that, he can slowly and surely dump his shares. Now he made a lot of money, but people ended up holding the bag.
    There is still time to get out of HLF gracefully.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    YHOO is dirt cheap

    by el_capitan_of_the_club Jul 28, 2014 8:09 PM
    el_capitan_of_the_club el_capitan_of_the_club Jul 28, 2014 8:12 PM Flag

    Check this out http://www.cnbc.com/id/101648461#.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • el_capitan_of_the_club by el_capitan_of_the_club Jul 28, 2014 8:09 PM Flag

    By some estimates, new investment into Alibaba is coming with a $180 Billion market cap. If this is in fact true and YHOO owns 25% of Alibaba, that translates into about $45 Billion for YHOO, which is currently at about $36.5 Billion. If the math is right, we need $8.5 Billion to account for the AliBaba value and YHOO itself, which is probably about $15-20 Billion. All in all, there is for $28.5 Billion additional market cap, which is about 60-75% additional upside on the stock. Even if we get half that, that's $25-30/shr additional.

    btw Alibaba has an IPO date around beginning of September. In my opinion, YHOO is a screaming buy. We will see if the market sees it that way.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • el_capitan_of_the_club by el_capitan_of_the_club Jul 28, 2014 7:43 PM Flag

    YELP is on the verge of a major upside, but the timing be a bit off. YHOO had voiced an interest in YELP for a long time now, but selling to YHOO without a potential competitor may not bring the top dollars. GOOG may emerge as the likely suitor. YELP has a great business model and the international expansion will bring in a lot of new revenue. Neither YAHOO nor GOOG will let YELP independent for long. However, in order for YAHOO to buy YELP, they need to issue stock. Since no one is sure how much Alibaba will bring, they don't want to be premature. On the other hand, GOOG does not want to make a bit first without seeing YAHOO's hand.

    Frankly, I believe YELP will be a natural match to either company since neither one of them has any competing platform.

    All we need now is a strong quarter from YELP.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • el_capitan_of_the_club by el_capitan_of_the_club Jul 28, 2014 4:03 PM Flag

    I don't know if you can find a better situation than BX when it comes down to investing. It is currently yielding 5%, which is incredible in itself. More importantly, BX has a foreseeable growth trajectory. Money managers fall in love with stocks like BX. Expect BX to continue to move up. We just need to clear the $35/shr price on high volume. This incidentally is the IPO price as well.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

BX
32.42-0.33(-1.01%)Aug 22 4:02 PMEDT

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