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Pacific Ethanol, Inc. (PEIX) Message Board

elahens 33 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 29, 2014 12:55 PM Member since: Sep 27, 2006
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  • Reply to

    Hurdles ahead for PEIX

    by elahens Aug 28, 2014 1:43 PM
    elahens elahens Aug 29, 2014 12:55 PM Flag

    Lets wait and see what the next 8K's bring.
    My read is:
    A) warrants first and
    B) Convert of the Preferred into Common shares. A 10% dilution ( $40m worth of shares, for $10M in cash).

    Thus by the time earnings report hit the street, another $10M hit ( non-cash charges) can be AVOIDED. IF DOES NOT HAPPEN , I DO NOT WANT TO SEE ANY SURPRISE ON THIS BOARD.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Back 2 weeks, GEVO was drilled on the 4Q numbers in their CC. Answering to an analyst question about plant ethanol margin, the answer from GEVO CFO was : yes 30c margin per gallon.

    Well, in this week REX CC market update, they place current margin per gallon at 84c!

    Go GEVO! Your chance to exceed!

    Let's see : 50c/gallon on 1.5mil gallons per month

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Hurdles ahead for PEIX

    by elahens Aug 28, 2014 1:43 PM
    elahens elahens Aug 28, 2014 2:24 PM Flag

    a bit of statistics:
    o REX 350M gallons (in-house), PEIX 200.
    o REX local corn cheaper than CBOT. PEIX basis $1.20(at least) OVER CBOT
    o PEIX sells ethanol to Valero refinery. Valero can go for maket share gains
    o Preferred shares ony earns 7% interests. At some point, convert and run ( just like warrants)
    o More common shares from warrants is like selling a $20 assets at $7. Yes, one gets some cash.... but the common shareholders hold the bag.

    All along, I called out the BEST etshanol companies. Not the most dilutive asset.
    Sorry, I am off the boat a long time ago and got on a jet.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • OK, among the universe of ethanol producers, PEIX is working its way out of BK. What is left ahead holding it back, or to jump over.
    You may know all these factors, but here we go:
    1. Fall season is a slower demand period than Summer. Will 'exports' could use ALL the extra capacity from US? If not, then industry run rate will back to the 90% range.

    2. Just when demand might go down, additional capacity comes online. Will Valero new in-house production reduces purchases from 3rd party( PEIX)?
    Here is the latest news on Valero:
    On Aug. 26, Valero Renewable Fuels Co. LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Valero Energy Corp., and the Ports of Indiana hosted an event to commemorate the restart of a 110 MMgy ethanol plant located in Mount Vernon, Indiana.

    3. PEIX entered 3Q with $27M in finished goods. Since corn was 20% higher than 3Q, so a 10% hit to margin on the 27M is 2.7M hit in 3Q

    4. Preferred shares ( 970M) can be converted into common shares. Base on 24.9M shares outstanding, this is more dilution. Will it take place in 2014?

    5. Still 1.5 warrants to be converted. Will this be a 3Q or 4Q event?

    6. With stock price a $22, ( from $15.5 on June30) non-cash charges of approx $7 will be approx $10M on 3Q earnings.

    7. EPA RFS directions might cap ethanol from corn, while RINs value incent E15 consumption. Need for more capital to expand production cuases P/E ratio to go lower.

    It looks like a full profit period of 6 months needed before Common Shares to reach a plateau ( not the top, since 1M Bonus Shares are still in the bins).

    These items will keep the P/E below best of breed VLO, REX, GPRE...

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    Not so fast Zacks : data from the real market

    by elahens Aug 28, 2014 11:22 AM
    elahens elahens Aug 28, 2014 11:29 AM Flag

    Now the data:
    Six of the eight major fertilizers had lower prices compared to last month but none were down significantly. MAP had an average price of $607 per ton, potash $476/ton, urea $516/ton, 10-34-0 $555/ton, UAN28 $333/ton and UAN32 $377/ton.

    The two remaining fertilizers were higher compared to a month earlier, but again neither was up significantly. DAP had an average price of $587/ton and anhydrous was $699/ton.

    Credit to DTN and reporter :Russ Quinn DTN Staff Reporter

    My comments: the beans and corn are in the ground. Farmers will do anything to get
    the yield now. Specially at these prices, one has to work on volume and quality!!!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Tue Aug 26, 2014 02:36 PM CDT
    Print Email
    (Page 1 of 3)

    OMAHA (DTN) -- Despite some retailers predicting cheaper fertilizer by the fall application season, it now appears retail prices will not see a significant price decrease, according to DTN's most recent national survey of fertilizer retailers. That should be much to the chagrin of farmers, whose commodities fell considerably during the growing season.

  • On Aug. 26, Valero Renewable Fuels Co. LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Valero Energy Corp., and the Ports of Indiana hosted an event to commemorate the restart of a 110 MMgy ethanol plant located in Mount Vernon, Indiana.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • By volume,it is a refiner.
    But look at margins (REX) and based on ethanol volume production rate,
    bottom line profits will tip the balance to classify VLO as an ethanol producer company.

    They may make 90c on 1.4 million ethanol gallons.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Down 20% from1Q-2Q... Now at 28c a pound from Mid to Upper 30 cents.

    Should be good for the biodiesel folks ( cheaper feddstock).

  • Reply to

    10 Q is out

    by markcusw Aug 14, 2014 5:15 PM
    elahens elahens Aug 14, 2014 9:25 PM Flag

    This fact was already covered during the CC.
    Cash went to buy down the debt from $38m( AS OF 6/30)
    down to $18M(round figure)..

    No of shares out as of Aug 13 ?
    First test for you folks when you read the 10Q.
    Needless to say Share Count on Yahoo is behind.

    More as I read in details.

  • Reply to

    Earnings & Guidance

    by oilly2bed Aug 10, 2014 9:42 AM
    elahens elahens Aug 11, 2014 3:42 PM Flag

    Two notes:
    1. Prior to earnings, $15M growth projects - with income returns - by early 2015.
    Gross 20, 40% returns were quoted.
    One could done the list toget average ROI
    2. By year-end, California operations will be re-planned ( either sales at higher price,
    or cut dowoperations...). So 2015 results in Illinois will go get bogdown by California?

  • Reply to

    PBR call of Aug 11

    by elahens Aug 11, 2014 11:50 AM
    elahens elahens Aug 11, 2014 12:02 PM Flag

    o Yes , one last fact: project cash positive year-end 2014

  • o Confirm production projection of 7.5% + or - 1% increase by y/end 2014

    o froma Q&A - From Feb 2014 to Today, Debt Ratio forecasted for Y/E 2015
    Reconfirm A MAKE of 2.5 x EBITDA. ( in February had projected a Miss).
    Answer: all the variables have changed to the point that this new assessment is doable.

    o Had a 3B cut due to Productivity.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • elahens elahens Aug 8, 2014 3:48 PM Flag

    Past news items ( Tenaris...) suggests that PBR has re-aligned its expenses( deferring delivery, using items in stocks, just-in-delivery...). This will show up in earnings.
    Increased substitution of oil revenues with biodiesel, ethanol will show decreased costs.
    Expect a beat above analyst .55 number.

  • elahens elahens Aug 6, 2014 4:21 PM Flag

    Ag products out of Ukraine to Russia are done at 'local' prices. Since Russia raised natgas cost to Ukraine, Putin move here may be a push back to paying full price for Ag products. Another big bear move.
    But hunger has a way to change one's opinion. Putin may turn his own people when the shelves are empty.

    As for fertilizer, UAN from Russia ( not Ukraine) may be a product to benefit. Since Russian products usually flood the supply line.

  • elahens elahens Aug 4, 2014 3:04 PM Flag

    ADM comments on 8/5 will also enlight the market. They are followed more widely than the other ethanol producers.

  • elahens elahens Aug 4, 2014 2:58 PM Flag

    "Their livestock needs these DDGs" "and boycott can only go on so long".
    Time to assess these statements:
    a) DDGs is a feedstock for the livestocks but not the only...
    b) as long as their own stock is in surplus mode and they can roll it over with next year harvest at a cheaper price, then they may choose to deplete their own stock of 'old corn'.
    This MIR 62 conflict is a political communications but in reality it is a logistic issue. Proof : they are buying crops from next year harvest.
    The US challenge: more ethanol throws off more DDG; with each week at summer volume, DDG prices plunge.
    REX's quarter , May to Juy, will show this impact the most among ethanol producers.

    Still a Y-t-Y good return, but imacted by DDG.
    Watch ANDE for impact ( less impact but Avril -June business shows this trend).

  • Reply to

    DTN reports new DDG price level

    by elahens Aug 2, 2014 10:54 AM
    elahens elahens Aug 2, 2014 10:56 AM Flag

    per GPRE CC, every $50 delta in DDG translate to 15Cents nmargin delta( up or down)

  • DDG Prices Drop Another $20, No End in Sight

    Just when it appears that prices of dried distillers grains might finally end their three-month freefall, China placed yet another demand on U.S. ethanol producers and all hell broke loose in the market.

    China announced last week that it will now require official certification accompanying all DDG shipments guaranteeing it contains no trace of the GMO corn trait MIR 162. While the U.S. is unlikely to agree to China's demand, the announcement literally blew up the market, causing DDG prices to plummet.

    Between China's latest debacle and prediction of a record crop, the DTN weekly DDG spot price average fell a whopping $20 per ton in the past week, from $125 per ton last week to $105 this week. This is the lowest the average has been in almost four years, as the last time the average was at $105 per ton was in mid-August 2010.

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