That may be true, finally, but i'm a lucky troll because i haven't accumulated 70K shares of TVIX at prices ranging from $8 to $16 ~ If you are an example of smart, then obviously it's better lucky than smart.
finallytherenow was once famous for his "adding more" posts.: "adding more at $12.23... adding some AH at $11.86... Adding 5K at 10.20" and so on. Then he disappeared for a while. He has returned to add more at $3.40 i guess.
It's a valid concern. The whole TVIX (Yahoo MB) investment thesis - if you could call it that - relies on a market crash that propells TVIX into a rally outpacing its erosion over a year or two. So, for instance, if you had held TVIX since Apr 2014 (2 years) you would need a market meltdown today sufficient to drive TVIX over $100 per share, just to make 40% profit... but a meltdown so calamitous would surely leave Credit Suisse insolvent and unable to pay out on its unsecured TVIX notes. Effectively TVIX is a lose-lose proposition ~ a total sucker's play.
This note belongs to Credit Suisse ~ there are no "MMs" here, and no manipulation besides arbitrage trading... Perhaps you misposted? This is the TVIX board.
I wonder what Trump would have said on The Apprentice if some guy piped up and said: "I put all the money on TVIX (and Beetle Bomb in the third)"?
But it will surely gain 300~400% (taking it to 30~40 pennies) after the S&P sheds 50% (TVIX investor logic in action).
Good one! Considering TVIX could only cut above $4 for maybe three minutes one time last month (before giving it all back instantly) $5 is just a no-brainer from here.
You can day trade this thing ~ i believe some people have actually made money doing it ('m not that lucky) but be careful, and never trick yourself into believing there is any sort of long play here.
The point is: TVIX has ALWAYS gone much lower. It has always trended back towards zero and it has already done three reverse splits after approaching zero. Furthermore, every newcomer here, since 2011, has firmly believed he was buying TVIX on the cusp of a market meltdown; each one believed he was unique in that respect... much the way a casino troll believes he can somehow beat the odds, except that analogy falls apart when you consider your odds are actually better at the blackjack table than they are with TVIX.
$3.15 was also the 360-week (all time low) and that's why your enthusiasm is misplaced. The fact is, on any given day TVIX is likely to make a new, new, new... new all time low. No bottom here ~ Hell's the limit
There's no "apples"... TVIX started Q2-2015 (Apr 1) at about $2. It continued along its usual contango degeneration to near 55c in late June, whereupon Credit Suisse (the note issuer) ordered a 1:10 reverse split, artificially pushing the trading price up to $5.50 (i.e. 1:10). That is the reality of TVIX ~ apples, oranges, whatever.
I don't know if you could actually refer to the Aug 2015 event as a "run up" considering TVIX had done a 1:10 reverse split in late June. In real terms (RS adjusted) therefore, the August "rally" raised TVIX share price back to about $2 ~ pretty much where it had started the quarter. Anybody long TVIX in Q2-2015 had a brief opportunity to get out at near break even in August.
"ROFLMAO See you at $ 5...then at $ 7....then $ 10" ~ right clearwater, but you will need a time machine to get back to those numbers and the current consensus among physicists is that travel into the past is quite impossible.