not to worry... over the long haul TVIX will offer infinite opportunity to average down - that's the beauty of the beast. Even when as it approaches zero, you can start averaging down again right after the next reverse split.
Interestingly, TVIX is close to where it was last time i covered. That was in June before the reverse split ~ i covered then at 81c.
Well, i guess that's better than going going long TVIX at $10.22, and much better than going long at $15 or $19. Way to cut your losses.
Federal Reserve officials held off on raising short-term interest rates at their September policy meeting because they had nagging worries about when inflation would return to 2%... “Many members said that the improvement in labor market conditions met or would soon meet one of the (Fed’s) criteria for beginning policy normalization,” the minutes said. “But some indicated that their confidence that inflation would gradually return to the (Fed’s) 2%objective over the medium term had not increased.”
No, it's not an investment; it doesn't even qualify as "junk" because junk stocks usually have some inherent value. TVIX is good for three things: 1) Holdintg short to zero, where history proves it always goes eventually. 2) Gambling. In my humble observations, gamblers are happy when they win but usually lose in the end. 3) HFT ~ If you can bet huge amounts of money, move in and out of the trade within minutes, and are using a computer algorithm to do it, youmight do well.
The markets have never liked confusion and the markets have been confused for a long time, but TVIX is very predictable over the long haul, because it isn't worth a plug nickel.
Uh-huh, but i'm not convinced about your earnings prediction... Contagion in the Euro Zone? So, you think other countries will want to follow in Greece's footsteps by cutting their own throats?
As for the rest, what is new about any of it, and why should TVIX suddenly become an investment quality equity if essentially nothing much has changed to keep it from retracing to zero, just as it has three times already in four years? Keep in mind TVIX, being an unsecured note written against the derivative of a derivative, is fundamentally worth nothing, and that's why it eventually gravitates to zero.
Why is the "pop" inevitable? The 4-year history of this note has been punctuated very rarely with "pop", being mostly a long history of "crash and burn" to a tune of three reverse splits, on average one RS every 15 months.
One of the strangest phenomena i've encountered was in Peru, when asking for directions. I found people would invariably offer detailed instruction on how to get to a destination, even if they apparently had no idea. After a few episodes, discovering that the instructions i'd received weren't even remotely related to the location, i stopped asking of course. Because they were often simple street folk, who seemed genuinely motivated to help, i'm assuming they believed it was better to give me erroneous info than none at all, as long as they tried.
You know (and this will surely come as a surprise), not all "analysts" are predicting a crash, although there seems to be more of that sort of chatter these days. The fact is, while Chinese growth has simmered to 7% per year, the country is a lot richer than it used to be (and 7% is really decent for a maturing economy). In fact China's GDP has quite literally doubled since 2009. And while the Shanghai Index has pulled back lately, it's still way up for the year. US earnings have been good for most of the year; US GDP is up 15% since 2009. There are all kinds of adjustments that need to be made as the new tech economy unfolds... oil will never again be worth as much as it used to be--new industries will evolve to fill the gap--fossil fuels in general are poised to go the way of the dinosaurs--but a market crash (IMO) isn't any more likely today than it was a year ago.
By now you must have intuited there is just a loose correlation between TVIX SP and SnP over extended periods. The note tracks the SnP pretty accurately on a day trade, but the baseline changes every day, so it's not a linear relationship over extended time.
i suppose if i let my incubus run free over the nasdaq trading floor one more time, it might spark a TVIX dead cat bounce, and some of youse guys could cut your losses--not the ones who are holding long and strong for the end of the western world of course--but last time i did that, the little beggar wreaked havoc, and now i am permanently barred from One Liberty Plaza. sorry.
if you're using YUM as a bellwether for the Chinese economy then, yes, no impact. Kentucky fried chicken and pizza sales have no impact on the Chinese economy.
Or maybe Western junk food simply doesn't wow the Chinese palate... Meanwhile, IMAX just loves its business in China last quarter, and all year.
Well, you know what they say about a broken clock. Sooner or later the markets will crash, then regroup and head higher again - it's inevitable. The only real question is: how many reverse splits will TVIX do before the next crash?