sorry to hear that, if you took a loss...
sooner or later the market will consolidate, and test a support line (before bouncing again). anybody who paid over $3 for TVIX might want to gamble it goes back there one more time before it drops to $2 ~ i'd say it's a 50/50 split on the chances. i would never hold TVIX long, but if i found myself in that position (under water), i might just hold my breath and cross my fingers it does one more rally back to my cost, so i could break even and get out.
Nothing new about Greece. They were flogging Greek paper for 12% (along with Italian and Spanish) just a couple of years ago. It blew over, like it always does, and the market continued its rally. Greece just isn't that important in the global economic perspective
The market will test its moving averages now and then, but if it continues along this bull rampage for a few more days, TVIX will suffer a lot before it ever sees $3.00 again. Nothing written in stone that says the S&P has to top out at 2100. Take a good look at the chart over the last half century. Back in the 80s we thought 100 was the absolute top. In the early 90s people might have told you the S&P will never hold 500. Just a few months ago, we thought 1900 was overbought. Fact is, times change and the S&P pushes steadily upward, forcing TVIX down as it goes. TVIX was designed to fall back to zero regularly, and regroup. It's not a long hold, unless you're waiting for the next cyclical recession - these days they happen every decade or so - and, as someone else pointed out, we are just six years into the latest bull market. If you have to wait another 4 years, expect TVIX to bounce off zero into another reverse split before it ever makes you rich.
right... "we are all going to die". so repent (and go long TVIX). I'm already loading the bunker with canned foods, but i prolly shouldn't have dug it so deep. Florida, you know - below the water line.
The only times the market has actually come down (briefly) were in 1998 and 2008... between 1990 and today, we have seen nothing but upside as the S&P went from below 500 to where it now sits. Banking on a market correction, is like buying a lottery ticket. Just a bad bet, unless you're prepared to hold TVIX for another decade or so.
Cyber security is hot today, as Obama promotes his exec order in California. HACK is a security ETF with 7M shares in the float. Thinly traded ~ av vol = 235K, so expect a wide BID-ASK spread, and some profit taking on every move. But overall, it's strong market day, and cyber security is fashionable.
morning futures at 2088 - and they are typically lower than the daily range. no dead cat here. we're likely to bust thru the 2100 barrier today.
buzzer ~ Obviously TVIX has a higher valuation now, if you can logically assign a valuation to an ETN. In fact, TVIX adjusts its trading range every day, so historical data has limited value. I'm guessing that the gap from a new S&P high of of 2000 to test the 200-day MA at 1875 (last fall) attracted many longs; TVIX made the NASDAQ top ten list back then for over a week straight, and you could see the effect on this message board: people were buying in without any idea as to what an ETN is. Support/resistance lines have been drawn... investors are slow to bail as a group, and TVIX is holding a PPS much higher than it should (logically) today. A lot of the new guys are hoping that TVIX pps will spike to $thousands in a market crash, and see it as an opportunity to make their dreams come true, inspired by that to hold long no matter where the S&P goes this month. Blind, desperate hope doesn't get dashed overnight. S&P futures are at 2087 and rising this morning - expect another down day for TVIX.
that's what i thought. in a perfect world this dog would extend free fall in AH (with the S&P closing at 2088.48) but instead, the new betters are trying to push it back up, and somebody is actually willing to pay $2.63 in AH. They think it's a "buying opportunity", a "good entry point"... yadda yadda. This thing hasn't traded real since it made the top ten gainers list four days in a row. The betters are wild - until all the new longs get burnt badly, and move on, TVIX will remain unpredictable.
"Interesting that Reuters gives TVIX its highest long rating and the SPY its lowest. They're obviously looking out a bit further than most of us trying to trade/swing trade this thing."
Some reuters staff analyst was probably looking at his fingernails when the editor stormed in and told him to publish something... anything!
it spiked over $5 in October when the S&P tested it's 200-day MA at about 1875, after breaking 2K for the first time.
It's not perfectly joined at the hip... put a SPX chart over top a TVIX chart on a 3-month range, and you will see that last time the S&P was at these levels, TVIX traded off at $2.20... not long ago (December).
risky... it shouldn't be this high to begin with. the only thing propping it up is new longs who think 'the end is near'. sooner or later fundamentals will kick in, even if the S&P runs flat for a while, and TVIX will consolidate in the low $2 range where it belongs now.
hard to say. i covered at 2.62, because this dog is totally unpredictable. why it is still trading above 2.40 baffles me