"They" are the Seven Dwarfs, of course. Try to speak directly jwtechy ~ not everyone here knows the story.
It has always "look like the shorts can do no wrong"... from day one. That's because TVIX has zero fundamental value. "When the house comes down". TVIX will continue to have no fundamental value, but at that stage even the arbitrage traders will have evacuated. In an economic meltdown, the junk notes get delisted first.
There are no naked short sellers of TVIX ~ In fact there is an abundance of neg shares available at almost any time.
"almost 40% down in less than a month. Anyone care to guess where the bottom is?"
~ Down 99.9998% since 2011... look at the chart. What makes you think there is a bottom to TVIX? It heads back to zero every 18 months or so, and then does a reverse split. Sorry, no bottom.
dibari, the note is already worthless, and that's why it always retrace to zero. It's a derivative of a derivative, without security or fundamental value, and without any productive business model -- It's a simulacrum, a trading illusion created by Credit Suisse. It's worth nothing in a healthy economic environment, and less than nothing in the event of an economic crash. In the event of an economic crash, investors would be well advised to divest themselves of weak or dubious investment positions, and there is no junkier position than TVIX.
Well, i can't rightly remember, but i'm sure i've been called worse things than "complacent"... but again, what does complacency have to do with the value of an unsecured derivative note having zero fundamental value?
u-huh. But what does all that have to do with TVIX?
Even after a massive recession, and especially as a result of economic collapse, this unsecured note would be worth nothing.
It's so sad to see these kinds of posts all over the message board.... either nobody profusely typing these messages has ever bothered to read the TVIX prospectus and glance at the TVIX 5-yr chart, or they are intentionally misleading newcomers, though i can't really understand the motivation for that, except perhaps they are holding this garbage note long and posting in the hopelessly misguided belief they can somehow influence share price of a note that is arbitrage traded on a huge scale to track S&P VIX futures momentarily.
Exactly. TVIX longs are holding the market back to reduce their losses. In this economy, if not for blatant TVIX longs naked buying, the S&P would by at 3K+. I saw a stark naked long running past the central parl reservoir last night screaming "TVIX shorts eat shyte and die!" These guys control the market and won't give TVIX short traders a break. I have written a letter to the SEC. Do you guys want to see it?
BTW the "holders" that you believe you've identified ARE the arbitrage traders, and they are buying and selling this thing on the millisecond, in order to make a fraction of a penny, #$%$&P VIX futures fluctuate through the day... that's how arbitrage trading works and it can be very profitable for funds with a huge playing capital. There are no TVIX "longs", except a few deluded souls posting on this board.
The share price is managed by arbitrage traders who force the note to track the underlying index, and the only big money here is trading in minutes (not holding this three-stage derivative overnight) ~ no short squeeze here. As usual, penny stock traders land on this page imagining TVIX is like a real stock influenced by investor sentiment and buy-sel-hold activities generating support and resistance lines... not here buddy.
In fact rayban, CS recommends very short term exposure in the prospectus - much shorter than a few months i think - and newcomers here should take special notice of the word "Daily" assigned to the descriptor. The fear index is likely to run within a range forever, even after a massive correction or economic neltdown once the dust settles, and TVIX will continue retracing to zero in the long run, no matter what happens to the economy; what i'm saying is even if the S&P corrects to 1200 in some unforeseeable future, that new index valuation would eventually become the status quo, the fear indexes would flatten out post-panic, and TVIX (as usual) would continue falling into nothingness. A lot of the people who land on this thing seem to believe there is a support level and a bottom for this stock (note), but there is not. TVIX is bottomless.
That's the wrong question to ask. The right question is: "Can TVIX hold above $1 for once, and avoid doing another reverse split like it has done repeatedly (thrice) since it started trading in 2011?"
"Caution, risk is to the upside." ~ really? When has TVIX ever had any upside? Real share value (RS adjusted) is now about 0.000025. Are you thinking it might spike to 0.000030?